ARA Stocks Decline on Higher Road Fuel Demand (Week 21 – 2023)

Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub declined in the week to 24 May, mostly dragged down by lower road fuel stocks, according to consultancy Insights Global.

Gasoline inventories declined in the week to 24 May, as more export demand emerged, according to Insights Global. This comes at a time of the fast-approaching driving season, which will support blending feedstocks in the following weeks.

Inland demand remains strong as refineries in southern Germany remain offline, dragging more product from ARA. Cargoes arrived in ARA from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the UK, and departed to Colombia, the Faroe Islands, France, Turkey, the US and west Africa.

Gasoil stocks fell the most, in outright terms, on the week, the lowest since 27 April when stocks totalled. Demand in Europe is quite high while imports are still strong, according to Insights Global. Gasoil cargoes arrived from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UK and the US, and left for France, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and the UK.

On the lighter side of the barrel, naphtha’s inventories fell, which is lower on the year. Demand for naphtha is mostly for gasoline blending as seasonal demand is shifting the market.

Petrochemical demand remained weak in Europe as producers are cautious in ramping up production in the wake of economic headwinds in Europe. Naphtha cargoes arrived from Algeria, Norway, the UK and the US but none left.

Jet fuel stocks were the only ones to rise in the week.

Market demand is rising, as is usual for this time of the year, but this appears to be not enough to match supply. Jet cargoes arrived from Kuwait and left for the UK.

At the heavier side of the barrel, fuel oil stocks declined on the week, the lowest since the week to 27 April. The arbitrage to Singapore appeared open on the week, according to Insights Global. Fuel oil cargoes arrived from Brazil, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy and Mexico, and left for Denmark, France, Italy and the UK.

Reporter: Mykyta Hryshchuk

Could Occidental Petroleum Really Become the Next ExxonMobil?

The oil companies share a lot of similarities.

ExxonMobil (XOM -0.89%) is a global oil and gas industry behemoth. It’s a leading hydrocarbon producer. It also boasts a globally integrated business, enabling it to maximize the value of the hydrocarbons it produces. Meanwhile, Exxon has an emerging low-carbon business.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY -0.59%) shares many of those same features, albeit on a smaller scale. However, the company has grand growth ambitions – it beat out oil giant Chevron (CVX -0.62%) to acquire Anadarko Petroleum in 2019. Here’s a look at whether it could eventually become a mega-cap oil stock like Exxon.

How Occidental stacks up against ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil is currently the largest U.S. oil company by market cap:

As that chart shows, Exxon is over seven times the size of Occidental Petroleum, which currently ranks as the 6th largest U.S. energy company.

Exxon has a much larger global production base. The company produced an average of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) during the first quarter. For comparison, Occidental Petroleum produced 1.2 million BOE/d during the period. 

However, oil and gas production is only part of Exxon’s story. The company’s integrated operations also feature a large-scale downstream business of refining, chemicals, and marketing assets. Exxon’s downstream business is a big value driver. The company generated over $4 billion in energy products earnings during the first quarter to go along with nearly $6.5 billion of upstream production earnings. 

Occidental Petroleum isn’t nearly as integrated as Exxon. It has some midstream assets, including owning a stake in Western Midstream (WES -0.50%). It also has a chemicals business, OxyChem. However, they’re not big earnings drivers for the company. OxyChem produced $472 million of income in the first quarter, while the company’s midstream and marketing business only generated $2 million of income.

Add in its oil and gas earnings, and Occidental Petroleum’s total earnings were only $1.1 billion in the first quarter. Exxon’s profits were almost 10 times higher at $11.4 billion. 

What can Occidental Petroleum do to bridge the gap?

The quickest path for Occidental to join Exxon as a mega-cap oil stock is to continue making needle-moving acquisitions like Anadarko Petroleum. It could pursue a merger of equals transaction with a rival like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -2.39%), which would boost its market cap up into the triple digits. However, it would have competition since Exxon has already set its sights on acquiring Pioneer to beef up its presence in the Permian Basin.

If it wanted to become more like Exxon, the company could seek to build a more integrated platform by acquiring a refiner like Phillips 66 or Marathon Petroleum. Both refiners used to be part of an integrated oil company (ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil , respectively).

However, those formerly integrated oil companies spun off their refining and midstream assets over a decade ago so that each company had the freedom to independently pursue growth opportunities.

While Occidental may eventually pursue another needle-moving acquisition, its main focus is organically growing its oil and gas production and carbon capture and storage (CCS) platform. CCS could be a major growth driver. Occidental estimates CCS could eventually become a $3 trillion-$5 trillion global market. The company believes that one day it could generate as much earnings from CCS as it currently makes from producing oil and gas. 

The company is investing heavily to build out its CCS capabilities. Occidental is spending more than $1 billion to build the first of what it hopes will be many direct air capture plants to pull carbon dioxide out of the air. It’s also working to develop sequestration hubs. 

However, Occidental isn’t alone in seeking to capture the CCS opportunity. Exxon is also working to capitalize on what it believes will be a multibillion-dollar revenue opportunity for the company. Exxon thinks CCS could eventually supply it with steadier revenue to help offset some of the volatility of its oil and gas business.

Occidental Petroleum has a long way to grow

Occidental has shown it wants to become a big oil company by wrestling Anadarko away from Chevron a few years ago.

However, to become the next Exxon, it would either need to become more integrated by acquiring a refiner or show it can go toe-to-toe with Exxon in capturing the emerging CCS opportunity. While Occidental could eventually boast an Exxon-sized market cap, it has a long way to grow to catch up to that oil behemoth.

The Motley Fool by Matthew DiLallo, May 23, 2023

Hong Kong LNG Project to Optimize Bay Area Energy Structure

The Hong Kong liquefied natural gas or LNG project, whose trial operations started on Sunday, is expected to significantly optimize the energy structure of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area while ensuring domestic energy security, industry experts said on Monday.

The LNG project, which includes a dual-berth offshore LNG receiving terminal, an onshore LNG receiving terminal and two submarine pipelines, is the largest offshore energy infrastructure construction project in recent years in Hong Kong, according to its operator China Offshore Oil Engineering Co Ltd or COOEC.

The core of the LNG project, the receiving terminal is the world’s first offshore all-steel double-berth structure, said COOEC, a listed company controlled by China National Offshore Oil Corp or CNOOC.

It is capable of accommodating two of the world’s largest FSRUs — floating storage and regasification units — or LNG transport ships for berthing and operation at the same time, COOEC said.

According to Liu Zhigang, deputy director of the COOEC Hong Kong Offshore LNG Terminal EPC project, the designed service life of the terminal is 50 years, more than twice that of conventional offshore LNG receiving terminals.

Lin Boqiang, head of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University, said CNOOC has, in recent years, formed a complete LNG engineering construction capability, ranging from liquefaction to regasification onshore and offshore. Its assets and capabilities now rank among the world’s top modular, super large LNG storage tanks and LNG receiving terminal construction expertise.

“The company has been strengthening the key core technology research and development of clean energy engineering over the years, which has in turn promoted China’s energy structure transformation and the realization of the dual-carbon goals,” Lin said.

The operation of the Hong Kong LNG project will provide stable and clean power generation fuel to Hong Kong via submarine pipelines and substantially increase the proportion of clean energy generation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, he said.

Oil and gas production of CNOOC reached a record high of 120 million metric tons of oil equivalent last year, with domestic crude oil and natural gas production up by 3.39 million tons and 2.7 billion cubic meters year-on-year, respectively. The increase in crude oil production accounted for over 60 percent of the country’s total increase, it said.

CNOOC imported 26.69 million tons of LNG last year. Overseas oil and gas production rose to 46.24 million tons of oil equivalent so far in 2023 as the company continuously strengthens international energy cooperation while optimizing asset layout in countries and regions participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, it said.

CHINADAILY by Zheng Xin, May 23, 2023

Fuel Oil Stock Draw Pressures ARA Product Inventories (Week 20 – 2023)

Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub shrunk in the week to 17 May, according to consultancy Insights Global. A near decline in fuel oil inventories drove the downturn, with levels dropping.

Tankers carrying fuel oil arrived at the hub from the US, Brazil, Finland and France, and departed the Mediterranean region and Norway.

Stocks could drop further next week with the eastbound arbitrage route opening after Singapore margins soared, according to market participants. European fuel oil supply then could dip further if these economics remain workable.

At the lighter end of the barrel, gasoline stocks fell. Demand for product up the Rhine river into Germany rose owing to refinery outages in the country.

Transatlantic arbitrage economics remain less workable, weighing on US-export demand. Gasoline arrived at ARA from Italy, Spain, Portugal and the UK, and larger amounts departed for west Africa, the US, Germany and France.

Naphtha stocks rose on the week. Less gasoline blending activity at the hub may have allowed inventories to build, while demand from the petrochemical sector remains relatively lax as propane remains the more economic feedstock for crackers, according to Insights Global. Naphtha arrived at ARA from Algeria, Germany, Saudi Arabia and the US, and cargoes left for France.

Reporter: Georgina McCartney

Nigeria To Finally Commission Huge 650,000 Bpd Oil Refinery

After years of delays and massive cost overruns, Nigeria is set to finally see a 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil refinery commissioned later this month.

The Dangote Refinery, built by the group of the same name of Africa’s richest person, Aliko Dangote, is expected to be inaugurated by Nigeria’s outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari on May 22, Nigerian outlet THISDAY reported on Sunday, quoting a source at the refinery.  

Construction at the refinery has been completed, and tests are being carried out, the source told THISDAY.

The Dangote Group has previously said that it aims to commission the refinery before President Buhari leaves office at the end of May after serving the maximum of two consecutive terms per the constitution.

It looks like this time the timeline will be kept, as a presidential spokesperson told Reuters on Sunday that the refinery near Lagos is set for inauguration on May 22.

The refinery has cost around $20 billion, up from initial cost estimates of between $12 billion and $14 billion.

The huge refinery will be able to meet domestic fuel demand and even have some part of the fuel left for exports.

The Dangote refinery expects to export diesel to customers in Europe, as well as gasoline to Latin American and African markets.

Nigeria, OPEC’s top crude oil producer in Africa, has had to rely on fuel imports due to a lack of enough capacity at its refineries, some of which had to undergo refurbishment in recent years.

At the end of last year, the then oil minister Timipre Sylva said that the country expects to stop importing petroleum products starting in the third quarter of 2023.

A refurbished refinery in Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta is expected to be producing 60,000 bpd of refined crude oil per day, and the new Dangote refinery is expected to come online in 2023, Sylva said at the end of November.

OilPrice.com by Tsvetana Paraskova, May 12, 2023

Marathon Reports on Conventional, Renewables Refining Projects

Marathon Petroleum dedicated the bulk of its first-quarter 2023 capex to advancing its balanced approach of optimizing traditional crude oil refining operations while furthering low-carbon projects.

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) dedicated the bulk of its first-quarter 2023 capex to advancing its balanced approach of optimizing traditional crude oil refining operations while furthering projects in preparation for a low-carbon future in line with the global energy transition.

Of the total $430 million in capital expenditures and investments during the first quarter, MPC dedicated $421 million—up $177 million compared with first-quarter 2022—to ongoing traditional and renewables refining projects, the operator said on May 2.

In its quarterly earnings report to investors, MPC confirmed that it has completed its South Texas Asset Repositioning (STAR) program at the 593,000-b/d Galveston Bay refinery in Texas City, Tex., which included works to further integrate the operator’s former Texas City refinery into the adjacent Galveston Bay refinery to improve the site’s efficiency and reliability by increasing residual oil processing capabilities, upgrading the crude unit, and integrating logistics (OGJ Online, Aug. 2, 2022).

Officially started up in April and scheduled to ramp up throughout second-quarter 2023, the Galveston Bay STAR project, upon reaching full operation, aims to add 40,000 b/d and 17,000 b/d of incremental crude and resid processing capacity, respectively, at the site, MPC said.

Alongside unidentified projects designed to help reduce future operating costs and improve the competitive position across the operator’s US refining assets, MPC said other first-quarter capex covered expenses related to an emissions-reduction program are under way at the 363,000-b/d Los Angeles refinery, as well as furthering second-phase works for the conversion of the former Martinez, Calif., conventional crude refinery into a renewable fuels production site (OGJ Online, Feb. 6, 2023).

Part of its Martinez Renewables LLC 50-50 joint venture with Neste Corp., MPC confirmed Phase 1 of the Martinez conversion project reached its full production capacity for renewable diesel of 260 million gal/year during the first quarter, as planned.

With construction activities currently on schedule for Phase 2 and pretreatment capabilities for renewable feedstocks at the site due online during second-half 2023, MPC said it expects Martinez Renewables to reach full nameplate production capacity of 730 million gal/year by yearend.

Oil&GasJournal by Robert Brelsford, May 12, 2023

German Leaders Promise That New Liquefied Gas Terminals Have a Green Future, but Clean Energy Experts Are Skeptical

The government says that proposed onshore terminals could one day be converted to produce clean hydrogen. But that technology is in the embryonic stage, stirring worry that the terminals will simply prolong the use of fossil fuels.

In the steel-gray North Sea waters of the port of Wilhelmshaven floats an impressively long tanker, the German government’s answer to the nation’s energy crisis.

The Höegh Esperanza, sprawling the length of three football fields, is what’s known as a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit. It’s a modified tanker ship that sails to different countries where it converts liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from transport ships back into a gaseous state. This gas can then be injected into natural gas pipelines. 

In an effort to get by without Russian pipeline gas, cut off after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is turning to LNG imported from countries like the United States. To some climate advocates, however, this amounts to investing in fossil fuel infrastructure when Germany is trying to move toward a carbon-free future. 

The worry is that this could further bind Germany to fossil fuels and the greenhouse gas emissions that are accelerating climate change. Europe’s largest energy consumer, Germany has made a commitment to becoming greenhouse gas neutral by 2045.

German leaders have promised that the new infrastructure will eventually be used to import hydrogen fuel, which does not emit greenhouse gases, as part of a transition to a decarbonized energy sector. But some clean energy experts question the feasibility of such a conversion.

Germany plans to rent at least six floating terminals. The Esperanza, the first, arrived in Wilhelmshaven in December. The German government has leased it for 10 years, according to a statement from Höegh LNG, the company that owns the ship.

“Today we are making a very important step towards energy security in Germany,” Robert Habeck, the German vice chancellor and minister for economic affairs and climate action, declared when the Esperanza arrived. “This shows how much Germany can get done within only a few months when it is necessary.”

The leased terminals can sail elsewhere once they are no longer needed. The crux of concern is that Germany also plans to build several permanent onshore LNG terminals.

These could become prematurely obsolete if Germany stops using them in favor of renewable energy, said Rainer Quitzow, a political scientist at the Research Institute for Sustainability in Potsdam. 

The alternative, he said, is that “the powers that be put so much pressure on the government that rather than creating a stranded asset and devaluing that asset for the owners, they just continue using it [to process LNG] anyway,” Quitzow said.

If that happens, he warned, it could cause Germany to remain dependent on fossil fuel longer than planned, in a so-called “lock in” effect.

Katharina Grave, a spokeswoman for Germany’s Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, said the permanent terminals are necessary because the government believes the floating terminals alone will not make up for the cutoff of Russian gas.

“There are not endless amounts of them, and they are quite expensive to hire,” Grave said. “So for the future, those FSRU ships will be step by step replaced by LNG ships that feed into fixed terminals, and then these terminals will also be used to get hydrogen into the system.”

Hydrogen fuel can be used to store and transport energy. There are multiple ways of producing it, including by partially combusting fossil fuels. But under Germany’s National Hydrogen Strategy, adopted in 2020, the government regards only “green hydrogen,” generated with renewable energy, to be sustainable in the long term. 

Green hydrogen is created by using renewably generated electricity to split water molecules in a process known as electrolysis. This hydrogen can then be combined with oxygen in a fuel cell to generate electricity, which produces only harmless water vapor as a byproduct. 

Germany ultimately plans to use hydrogen to power industries that are otherwise difficult to decarbonize, including shipping, aviation and emission-intensive industrial processes. 

“Hydrogen is such a precious thing,” said Franziska Müller, a professor of political science at the University of Hamburg who studies the social and environmental risks of hydrogen production. “In Germany, it’s sometimes called the champagne of the energy transition because it’s so difficult to produce, and so expensive also.” 

The authors of the National Hydrogen Strategy note that Germany will likely have to import much of the hydrogen it will need from abroad.

Grave said the permanent LNG terminals would be constructed to be “hydrogen ready,” but when asked what percentage of the facilities’ components would need to be adjusted, she said she was unsure. She did not give a target date for the switch to hydrogen, saying that Germany was still working on that part of its strategy.

Simon den Haak, a spokesman for the Dutch energy company Gasunie, said that LNG terminals can easily be converted if they are built with hydrogen in mind. Gasunie is a partial owner of a planned onshore LNG terminal in Brunsbüttel, Germany. “Some valves may need to be replaced, but the basic construction of the terminal can be easily adapted,” den Haak said in an email.

But a study published last year by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Karlsruhe highlights several major barriers to converting LNG terminals to hydrogen terminals. 

Liquefied hydrogen is extremely difficult to transport. It must be kept at minus 253 degrees Celsius to remain a liquid, and to date only one prototype liquid hydrogen import terminal has been built, in Kobe, Japan.

The study found that many parts of an LNG terminal would have to be replaced for it to be capable of handling liquid hydrogen. Even if its storage tank, the most expensive part of the terminal, were built from hydrogen-compatible steel, the study found, components comprising only 50 percent of the initial investment in an LNG terminal could be reused in the conversion.

Another option is to import synthetic natural gas, or SNG, which is made by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide. Because SNG is chemically identical to conventional natural gas, LNG terminals can be used to import it without any significant alterations.

The synthetic fuel can then be used the same way natural gas is or turned back into hydrogen. 

But to be carbon-neutral, the carbon dioxide used to produce the SNG must come from a non-fossil fuel source like organic waste or be captured from the air. The Fraunhofer study says that carbon-neutral SNG is currently “entirely hypothetical” because of the high costs associated with those processes.

A third option is to import a hydrogen derivative like ammonia, which is produced by adding nitrogen to hydrogen.

The ammonia can then be turned back into hydrogen, used to make fertilizer or burned as its own carbon-free source of power.

Inside Climate News by Christina van Waasbergen, May 12, 2023

ARA Gasoil Stocks at Nine-Week High (Week 19 – 2023)

Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub rose in the week to 10 May, according to consultancy Insights Global.

A rise in gasoil stocks drove the increase, with inventories reaching their highest since 9 March.

Diesel stocks rose on the week, probably in response to weakened gasoil values, according to Insights Global.

Gasoil inventories grew despite firm demand up the Rhine, with outages continuing to weigh on German supply and export opportunities on this flow facilitated by high water levels and low barge freight rates.

Cargoes carrying gasoil arrived at the hub from India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Italy, while volumes departed for Germany, France, Spain and west Africa.

Gasoline stocks at ARA also rose on the week, probably increased as a result of limited export opportunities to the US, with the transatlantic arbitrage route seemingly unworkable, according to Insights Global.

Demand up the Rhine also weakened on the week, also allowing stocks to build. Gasoline arrived at the hub from France, Portugal the UK and Scandinavia, while smaller cargoes departed for the US, west Africa, Puerto Rico and Germany.

At the lighter end of the barrel, naphtha inventories also rose. Demand from the petrochemical sector up the Rhine was weak, according to Insights Global, as cheaper propane continues to displace naphtha for crackers.

Demand for naphtha into the gasoline blending pool remains firm, according to Insights Global, with stocks ample on weak petrochemical demand.

Georgina McCartney

ARA Fuel Oil Stocks Reach 22-Month High (Week 18 – 2023)

Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub gained in the week to 3 May, according to consultancy Insights Global. An uptick in fuel oil inventories drove the increase, with stocks growing on the week.

Fuel oil stocks at the hub have increased because of a lack of export opportunities, according to Insights Global. Cargoes arrived at the hub from France, Germany, Greece and Poland, while smaller volumes departed for Denmark.

Gasoil stocks rose on the week. Inventories may have grown on reduced French demand, as the country brings its refineries back online after strike-related closures.

If the contango on the gasoil futures forward curve steepen, market participants may opt to store product at ARA, potentially pushing stocks up higher in the coming weeks, but at the moment this is not a profitable option, traders said.

Gasoil imports into ARA were firm this week, according to Insights Global, with product arriving from India, Portugal, the US, Qatar and Spain, while volumes left for Argentina, France, Germany and the UK.

Gasoline inventories grew on the week, despite firm demand for product up the Rhine into Germany with local refineries currently offline for maintenance. There was also reports of demand for gasoline by barge into Berlin, according to Insights Global.

Vessels discharged product at the hub originating from Finland, Spain, Sweden Turkey and the UK while volumes departed for France, Germany Spain the US and west Africa.

Meanwhile, naphtha stocks shrunk on the week. Inventories at the hub decreased on strong blending demand for gasoline production.

And while naphtha demand from the petro-chemical sector in Germany was relatively firm, refiners are seemingly turning more to propane as a cheaper alternative, according to Insights Global.

Finally, jet stocks at ARA rose. Demand is expected to grow in the coming months as summer holidays begin.

How Falling Refining Margins Threaten Oil Industry Profits

The oil industry is currently experiencing a somber atmosphere due to falling refining margins, which are a significant indicator of profitability for refiners.

This is in contrast to the record boom seen last year when strong refining margins and high oil prices led to reports of refiners preparing massive performance bonuses to share profits with employees, prompting calls for a windfall tax on refiners.

In 2022, the four major refiners — SK Innovation Co., GS Caltex Corp., HD Hyundai Oilbank Co. and S-Oil Corp. — posted trillions of won in operating profits, with cumulative operating profits of between 2-4 trillion won (US$1.50-3.00 billion) by the third quarter.

However, the refining industry’s first-quarter earnings are expected to not only sharply decline from the same period last year, but also worsen in second quarter.

Refining margins have fallen to around $2 for the first time in about six months, standing at US$2.50 as of March 19, the lowest level in a year.

Last year, the refining margins soared to an average of $29.50 in the fourth week of June, following the onset of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Refining margins are equal to the price of the final petroleum product minus the cost of raw materials, including crude oil, with between $4-5 generally considered as the threshold for profit.

However, at the current $2 refining margin, running a plant means losing money.

The industry is concerned as international oil prices and refining margins are moving in opposite directions.

The recent announcement of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Plus’ production cuts resulted in an increase in oil prices, while refining margins decrease.

Industry insiders have attributed the decline in refining margins to the prolonged global economic downturn, which has decreased the demand for petroleum products.

The refining industry needs increased demand to raise refining margins, but with only supply decreasing, demand is not rising.

The current situation of production cuts and rising oil prices amid a recession is not favorable for the refining industry and could result in negative outcomes for both refiners and chemical companies, as they must pay for crude oil but earn nothing.

Higher oil prices can be a “boomerang” effect that further depresses demand.

It is unclear how long weaker refining margins will last in the face of a prolonged recession.

The move to replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the arrival of the summer vacation “driving season” could be positive factors for the recovery of oil demand.

By The Korea Bizwire, May 4, 2023