ARA Gasoline and Naphtha Stocks Dip on Blending Delays (Week 45 – 2023)

Independently-held products at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell in the week to 8 November, as blending component delays weighed on gasoline stocks, according to consultancy Insights Global.

Independently-held gasoline stocks in ARA fell in the week to 8 November, according to the latest data from Insights Global. Tightness around the Rhine region and in southern Germany has drawn volumes out of ARA, aided by higher river Rhine water levels. Exports to west Africa and to Switzerland have further driven stocks down.

On the supply side, fewer flows inland into ARA have limited replenishment. Blending activity has been complicated by delays in receiving blending components — of upwards of five days, Insights Global said — as securing ships to carry blending components has become more difficult, especially with relatively high freight rates. Draws on gasoline have outpaced production, reducing stock levels.

Naphtha stocks slipped in the week to 8 November, as demand for the product as a gasoline and petrochemical feedstock increased. Naphtha still prices at a premium to propane, but the spread between the two is shrinking, according to Insights Global.

Fuel oil inventories edged lower in the week to 8 November, as arbitrage economics to the Mediterranean were workable, according to Insights Global. But it is unclear if the Mediterranean is the product’s final destination or a layover on its way further east.

Reporter: Anya Fielding

How Big Oil Is Thriving Under Biden

Many voters think of President Biden as a green energy champion who wants to put fossil fuels out of business. But if you look at the financial performance of oil and natural gas companies under Biden’s presidency, you might think he’s their biggest booster.

Energy has been the best-performing sector during much of Biden’s presidency, which is now fueling a mega-merger consolidation sweep among some of the world’s biggest energy companies.

ExxonMobil announced plans to buy driller Pioneer Natural Resources for $64 billion on Oct. 11, prompting Chevron to bid $53 billion for Hess on Oct. 23. More deals are possible as huge energy firms hustle to lock in premier drilling sites as the point of “peak oil”—maximum global demand for the commodity, followed by a gradual decline — comes into view, perhaps within the next decade.

The Exxon and Chevron deals are both all-stock transactions. That’s possible because shares of America’s two largest energy firms have soared during the past two years, giving the acquirers plenty of headroom for big purchases without having to tap cash or borrow.

Big Oil has been thriving, of course, at the same time Biden is overseeing the biggest green energy push in American history. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act Biden signed includes green energy incentives that could total more than $1 trillion. Private sector firms are applying for those incentives at three times the rate budgeters expected last year. One consequence is a boom in the construction of factories for electric vehicle components and other green energy gear.

This might sound like a set of schizophrenic developments in the US energy sector, with a jacked-up fossil fuel industry threatening Biden’s green energy push (or vice versa). But it’s not. Big Oil is enjoying a heyday now in part because it’s rebounding from lean times. And while Biden clearly favors renewables over carbon, he has also learned that ample stocks of fossil fuels will be needed for years to keep consumer energy costs down and prevent voters from revolting.

It’s conventional wisdom that oil and gas firms are always rolling in money. But not really. In fact, as the following chart shows, energy sector returns have lagged many other sectors since 2010. During the last 10 years, energy was the worst-performing sector half the time, in terms of stock performance among the 11 major industries represented in the S&P 500 stock index.

Many Americans think gasoline and other energy prices were lower under President Trump than they’ve been under Biden. That’s mostly true — but not because of anything Trump or Biden did. One big reason prices were low from about 2014 through 2020 is that energy firms were overproducing and sacrificing profits as a result. As the shale drilling revolution got underway, many energy firms put profits aside as they invested aggressively in new facilities, in order to gain market share. The assumption was that profits would follow, eventually. As a result, energy investors willing to endure tiny profits or even losses basically subsidized the low cost of gasoline and other forms of energy for consumers.

COVID upended that equation. Oil prices plunged so deeply in 2020 that they briefly turned negative. Energy sector stocks in the S&P 500 lost 37% that year, while the broader index gained 16%, for an underperformance of 53 percentage points. Hundreds of energy firms went bankrupt and the mighty Exxon lost a staggering $22.4 billion.

That washout changed the whole industry. Investors and lenders began to demand short-term returns instead of tolerating losses in exchange for growth. Oil prices climbed off the floor as the global economy recovered from COVID. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which added a fear premium to oil prices for much of the year.

Yahoo Finance, Rick Newman, November 6, 2023

World’s Biggest Tank Farm: World Record in Cushing, Oklahoma

The city of Cushing in Oklahoma, United States, is a central hub within the United States and worldwide oil industry. It connects major pipelines within the United States and is the location where the oil futures contracts end up being delivered; the crude oil tanks around Cushing have approximately 91 million barrels of storage capacity, which is the world record for the World’s Biggest Tank Farm, according to the WORLD RECORD ACADEMY.

“The city of Cushing in Oklahoma is a central hub within the United States and worldwide oil industry. It connects major pipelines within the United States and is the location where the oil futures contracts end up being delivered.

“Cushing is a “vital transshipment point with many intersecting pipelines, storage facilities and easy access to refiners and suppliers.” Crude oil flows “inbound to Cushing from all directions and outbound through dozens of pipelines.” In 2005, crude oil and refined products in the US were almost always transported by interconnected pipeline systems. In Oklahoma, eight private companies operated almost all the pipelines and frequently operated oil terminals and refineries: Enbridge; Enterprise Products; Explorer Pipeline; Jayhawk; Magellan Midstream Partners; Plains All American Pipeline; Sunoco; and Valero Energy.

“The crude oil tanks around Cushing have approximately 91 million barrels of storage capacity. On October 28, 2016, tanks held a total of 58.5 million barrels of oil, though it has dropped in 2018.”

“Though the refineries from its boom years earlier in the century are gone, the town of Cushing, northeast of Oklahoma City, is a major storage site for crude oil and gas that comes and goes by pipeline. Cushing also became famous as a trading benchmark for the industry, when, in 1983, the New York Mercantile Exchange selected the price that a 42-gallon barrel of West Texas,” The Center For Land Use Interpretation says.

“Intermediate crude is trading for at Cushing, as an amount reflecting the general price of oil in the global marketplace. Cushing developed as a holding point between supply, coming principally from Texas, and demand, the markets of the north and northeast, like Chicago, to which it is connected by transcontinental pipeline.

“Cushing would be the southern terminus for the Keystone Pipeline from Alberta, should it be built. Several companies operate tank farms south of town, including Magellan, Enbridge, and PXP, with a total capacity of more than 30 million barrels in around 300 above-ground tanks.”

“Today Tank World News journeys to Cushing, Oklahoma, a small town of no more than 8000 people nicknamed the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World” which hosts the world’s largest tank farm,” the Tank World says.

“An oil town since 1912 when the first wildcatters struck oil, it quickly developed major infrastructure and once its own stocks dwindled it shifted to storage aided by a large number of pipes already in place and its central position in the heart of America. Recent figures from Bloomberg Business Week state the total crude stocks (including stock in farms and pipeline fill) to be in excess of 80 million barrels, with a working volume of 65 millions barrels and an increase of 14 million barrels from September 2011.

“Cushing Oklahoma, is the home of 13 oil storage companies including Enbridge, Magellan, Enterprise and more. Currently, there are 13 pipelines bringing crude oil into Cushing with an estimated total capacity of 1.7 million bpd. Whilst going the other way, out of Cushing there are 12 pipelines running in all directions with a capacity of 1.5 million bpd.”

“Cushing is strategically located to pull in barrels from top U.S. shale fields and Canada, while its hundreds of tanks are tied to pipelines that supply U.S. mid-continent and southern refineries and funnel oil to Gulf Coast export ports,” the Reuters says.

“Tank storage of below 20 million barrels, or between 10% and 20% of Cushing’s over 98 million barrels of capacity, is considered close to operational low, say traders. Below those levels the oil is difficult to remove. Water and sediments often settle at the base of storage tanks, making the crude oil at the bottom unable to meet quality standards for refiners or exporters.

“Some tanks have outlets at the bottom that can be used to empty oil and sludge completely, while others do not and therefore the oil at the base cannot be removed completely. At lower levels, it becomes more expensive for companies to get the remaining crude out of the tanks. Roofs of storage tanks also float on the oil, preventing vapors from building up or escaping into the atmosphere. When the legs of these roofs touch the base, it creates a gap between the oil and the roof, causing combustible vapors to form.”

“North American crude oil is pouring into Cushing, where dozens of steel storage tanks fan out from the outskirts of town, tank farms that march on for miles and connect to every major oil patch in North America through an maze of pipelines. Cushing’s nickname is “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World,” the CNBC says.

“It’s one of the largest crude oil storage hubs on Earth, and in the U.S. arguably the most important. Delivery for West Texas Intermediate crude is taken here, priced for Nymex contracts and stored before it’s shipped to refineries.

“However long that process takes, in the meantime, just outside the geographical limits of the tiny town of Cushing, some $2.5 billion worth of black gold is sitting in tanks, awaiting delivery and drawing the attention of the entire industry.”

“This vibrant hub has 90 million barrels of storage capacity where commercial companies are active participants in the market. The storage capacity has grown dramatically over the past few years and now accounts for 13% of total U.S. oil storage,” the CME Group says.

“Cushing’s inbound and outbound pipeline capacity is well over 6.5 million barrels daily. It is interconnected to multiple pipelines, each capable of transporting hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil daily.

“Significant investments in infrastructure, along with increased U.S. oil production, and the repeal of the oil export ban have strengthened the role of WTI as the leading global benchmark. As U.S. oil production continues to increase, Cushing will play an even greater role in the global petroleum landscape.”

“Cushing is known as the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World” for crude oil, with approximately 100 million barrels of storage in the tank farms in the area. The city plays a critical role in the energy sector due to its expansive storage operations and as a significant physical market price reference or benchmark,” the Oklahoma Department of Commerce says.

“The Cushing Economic Development Foundation, Inc. and the City of Cushing announced that Southern Rock Energy Partners, LLC (SREP) has selected Cushing as the site for the company’s next-generation, full conversion crude refinery. The project is expected to have $5.56 billion in capital investment and supply more than 420 full-time employees for operations.

“The project will result in SREP developing a 250,000-BPD next-generation, full conversion crude refinery which will reduce and eliminate 95% of greenhouse gas emissions while producing approximately 91.25 million barrels or 3.8325 billion gallons annually of cleaner transportation fuels including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from crudes sourced domestically from the Anadarko, Permian, Denver and Julesburg, and Bakken Basins. The project will be constructed over a 36-month period beginning in 2024 with commercial operations beginning in 2027. Total economic impact for the first decade of operations of the facility to the Cushing area and the state of Oklahoma is estimated to be more than $18 billion.”

“The first oil well in the Cushing area was drilled in 1896, but it was not until 1912 that the Cushing field was discovered in earnest. This field was unique in that it produced a high-quality crude oil that was in great demand by refineries across the country. The oil was also relatively easy to transport, as it was located near several major rail lines,” the 1600 KUSH says.

“One of the most important events in the history of the Cushing oil fields occurred in 1929, when the world’s first oil futures contract was traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This contract, which was for the delivery of oil from the Cushing storage tanks, set the standard for oil pricing worldwide and made Cushing a key player in the global oil market.

“Today, the Cushing oil fields continue to play an important role in the American oil industry. The town remains a major hub for oil storage and transportation, with millions of barrels of oil passing through the area every day. While the production levels of the Cushing fields have declined in recent years, they remain a crucial source of oil for the United States and the world.”

“Cushing (Meskwaki: Koshineki, Iowa-Oto: Amína P^óp^oye Chína, meaning: “Soft-seat town”) is a city in Payne County, Oklahoma, United States. The population was 7,826 at the time of the 2010 census, a decline of 6.5% since 8,371 in 2000. Cushing was established after the Land Run of 1891 by William “Billy Rae” Little. It was named for Marshall Cushing, private secretary to U.S. Postmaster General John Wanamaker.

“A 1912 oil boom led to the city’s development as a refining center, with over 50 refineries operating in Cushing over its history. Today, Cushing is a major trading hub for crude oil and a price settlement point for West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is known as the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World.”

“Cushing is a major crude oil hub within the United States and worldwide oil industry. It is a “vital transshipment point with many intersecting pipelines, storage facilities and easy access to refiners and suppliers.” Crude oil flows “inbound to Cushing from all directions and outbound through dozens of pipelines.” Crude oil tank farms around Cushing have over 90 million barrels of storage capacity.”

World Record Academy, November 6, 2023

ARA Stocks Rise Amid Lower Export Demand (Week 44 – 2023)

Independently-held oil products stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub rose in the week to 25 October, as lack of export demand kept products in the region, according to Insights Global.

Naphtha stocks fell, a three-week low. Demand for naphtha as a petrochemical feedstock remained robust on the week, as more demand spurred shipments up the Rhine river. Firm blending demand also lent some support for naphtha demand, further reducing stocks. Despite being higher, imports into the region could not outweigh improving demand.

Gasoline stocks grew in the week to 2 November, the highest since mid-August, as export demand was lacklustre. The arbitrage from ARA to the US was less workable, according to Insights Global, while blending demand picked up. But demand up the Rhine river remained firm, in Germany and Switzerland in particular, with refineries under maintenance there.

Jet fuel stocks fell with lower exports and lacklustre demand, according to Insights Global. Cargoes came from Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and only left for the UK.

Gasoil inventories rose on the week with higher imports from southeast Asia and the Middle East, according to Insights Global. Northwest Europe received more diesel in the week to 2 November compared with a week prior, according to Vortexa. Inland demand remained high in the region, as a result of refinery maintenance works.

Fuel oil inventories rose, the highest since August. Both regional and export demand were low, while more fuel oil came down the Rhine because of Miro refinery maintenance. ARA also saw some cargoes coming from the Mediterranean, while the arbitrage east remained closed.

Reporter: Mykyta Hryshchuk

IMTT Announces Sale of Five Inland Terminals

IMTT announced today that it has closed on the sale of the company’s bulk liquids storage terminals located in Alamogordo, NM; Bremen, GA; Macon, GA; Montgomery, AL; and Moundville, AL to JET Infrastructure.

These terminals collectively represent approximately one million barrels of storage capacity, leaving IMTT with 41 million barrels of storage capacity at its terminals on the East, West, and Gulf Coasts and in the Great Lakes and Canada.

“The proceeds from this sale will be reinvested into current and future growth projects, allowing us to continue executing our Greener and Cleaner strategy,” said IMTT Chairman and CEO Carlin Conner.

“As of today, over half of IMTT’s revenue in 2023 is expected to be generated from the storage and handling of non-petroleum products, such as renewable diesel feedstocks, renewable diesel, vegetable and tropical oils, and chemicals. At the same time, we remain committed to supporting our legacy petroleum positions in advantaged markets across the US and Canada.”

New Orleans-based IMTT will continue to own and operate its 11 other terminals across North America, all of which can facilitate marine product movements, including eight terminals with deep water dock capabilities.

Businesswire, Kim Nave, November 2, 2023

Hydrogen to Fuel a New Generation of Trains

Italy recently announced its plan to deploy its first hydrogen powered train by the end of 2024. The Coradia Stream H – which will run on hydrogen fuel cells – is equipped with 260 seats and has a range of 600 km or 373 miles.

Hydrogen as a fuel for rail transportation remains in its early stages. However, the potential exists for applications including industrial, passenger, freight, mining, rapid transit and even trams or hydrolley or hydrogen trollies. The technology -which is similar to that used in the automotive and aerospace industries is being developed by China, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, the UK and the United States.

Alstrom presented the Coradia iLint™ for the first time at Innotrans 2016 in Berlin. Entered into commercial service in Germany in 2018, it became the world’s first hydrogen passenger train. Using a combination of hydrogen fuel with battery energy storage, the zero-emission train releases only steam and condensed water.

The UK’s first hydrogen-powered train – the HydroFLEX – was launched in 2019 and is fitted with hydrogen fuel tanks, a fuel cell, and two lithium-ion battery packs for energy storage. Development plans are on-going to improve the train’s power and performance.

The use of hydrogen shows promise but comes with numerous technical challenges. Hydrogen is almost three times as dense as gasoline on a mass basis but is far less dense on a volume basis. That means it has to be compressed to produce the same energy per volume.

Germany plans to put a total of 14 hydrogen trains in service. However, given there are more than 4,000 diesel-powered trains running in Germany alone, this nascent hydrogen effort is truly just a baby step. But baby steps eventually turn into adult strides, and that’s where the stop that I believe hydrogen transportation will soon achieve.

Energy Central, Tony Paradiso, November 1, 2023

ARA Gasoline Stocks Hit 6-Week High (Week 43 – 2023)

Independently-held oil products stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub held steady in the week to 25 October as logistical issues impeded exports and regional demand firmed, according to data from consultancy Insights Global.

Gasoline stocks grew in the week to 25 October — the highest since mid-September — as lower Rhine water levels hampered flows downriver. Transatlantic arbitrage economics remain less workable. Exports to west Africa and the Red Sea have been more favourable.

Gasoil inventories fell in the week to 25 October. Diesel demand has firmed inland because of refinery maintenance in the region. And diesel production has increased despite logistical issues to accommodate the rallying demand and ease tightness. Excess summer-grade diesel is being sent south of the Equator, to Angola, Argentina and South Africa.

Naphtha inventories rose in the week to 25 October. Demand for naphtha as a blending component and as a petrochemical feedstock was robust in ARA but weaker down the Rhine river. The increase in naphtha stocks result from increased imports of blending components, logistical issues, and the difficulty in securing products at the right specifications which has led to high waiting times and idle full tanks.

Jet fuel stocks fell in the week to 25 October, despite a seasonal lull in aviation demand. But jet fuel premiums have deterred the blending of jet fuel into winter-grade diesel.

Fuel oil inventories grew in the week to 25 October, as high-sulphur cargoes from the US Gulf coast help ease high-sulphur fuel oil tightness.

Reporter: Anya Fielding

ARA Stocks Dip on Lower Imports, Firm Demand (Week 42 – 2023)

Independently-held oil products stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell in the week to 18 October on lower imports and apparently firm demand, according to consultancy Insights Global.

Naphtha stocks dropped on stronger demand from the petrochemical sector up the Rhine river. Demand from gasoline blending remained stable, according to the consultancy, as some gasoline export routes appeared more viable. Naphtha cargoes arrived from the Mediterranean, northwest Europe and the US, but none left.

Gasoline inventories rose. Demand from Switzerland and Germany remained firm during the week. Low river Rhine water levels forced a build up of gasoline stocks as the shortage of barges kept cargoes from entering the river. Exports to the US appeared lower, but more cargoes headed to west Africa.

Diesel and gasoil inventories increased. Higher imports from China to address the supply tightness were seen during the week, with more coming in the weeks ahead, according to the consultancy. Inland demand remained strong, while refinery outages in Germany continued to put further pressure on supply in the region. German refiner Bayernoil could be forced into a complete shutdown of its 207,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg refinery in southern Germany until at least mid-November.

On the heavier side of the barrel, fuel oil stocks fell. Stronger inland demand coupled with lower imports may be the driving force behind it. The arbitrage route to Singapore appeared open in the week, helping to clear more product from the ARA region.

Reporter: Mykyta Hryshchuk

ARA Stocks Decline on Higher Demand, Lower Imports 12-10 (Week 41 – 2023)

(ARA) trading hub fell in the week to 11 October on lower imports and as demand increased, according to consultancy Insights Global.

Naphtha stocks dropped on stronger demand up the Rhine river. Petrochemical demand appeared stable, albeit at a low level. Market participants anticipate marginally higher demand from the petrochemical sector for naphtha in the coming weeks. Gasoline blending remained stable, according to the consultancy, as gasoline export routes appeared more viable. Naphtha cargoes arrived from the Mediterranean, northwest Europe and the US, but none left.

Gasoline inventories increased, the highest in a month. Demand from Switzerland and Germany rose on the week. Low Rhine river water levels could pressure the German market as barges can only be laden halfway and market participants are willing to pay up for increasingly expensive barges, according to the consultancy. Shipments to the US and west Africa continued but supply to the hub outweighed demand, as more blending components arrived in ARA.

Diesel and gasoil inventories declined on higher demand from Germany, as a result of refinery outages in the country. On Wednesday, Germany’s 299,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery shut down some of its units for scheduled maintenance works until the end of November, according to operator Miro.

Reporter: Mykyta Hryshchuk

ARA Stocks Buoyed by Light Ends Build-Up (Week 40 – 2023)

Independently-held oil products stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub were buoyed by gasoline and naphtha stocks as they inched higher in the week to 4 October, according to consultancy Insights Global.

Naphtha stocks built after five weeks of drawdowns, are rising. Petrochemical demand was low, with some market participants noting petrochemical crackers in Europe. As gasoline demand continued to fade, blending demand also decreased in the ARA region, adding to the naphtha supply.

Gasoline inventories rose on the week. Demand remained weak in Europe and no exports to the US were spotted, while more summer-grade cargoes were sent to south America. Refinery maintenance in Europe made supply tighter in northwest Europe, somewhat helping demand up the Rhine river.

Jet fuel stocks increased, as demand remained low and no exports were spotted. Diesel and gasoil stocks decreased, mainly thanks to stronger export demand into the Mediterranean region. Demand there appeared stronger to compensate for refinery maintenance, with BP’s 108,000 b/d Castellon plant in eastern Spain to go offline on 15 October. Demand in northwest Europe also appeared firm.

Fuel oil inventories dropped for a fourth consecutive week. Bunkering demand was stable while the arbitrage to Singapore was open. According to Insight Global, there may be a reverse arbitrage route being workable, for cargoes going from the east of Suez into northwest Europe.

Reporter: Mykyta Hryshchuk