Refiners Battle Biden Administration on Oil Products’ Export Ban Option

The U.S. oil industry is imploring the Biden administration to stop considering limits on exports of gasoline, diesel and other refined petroleum products as a way to increase regional fuel inventories and bring down pump prices.

Bloomberg reported Tuesday that White House officials have asked the Department of Energy to analyze the possible impacts of an export ban.

Reports say U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and other White House officials last Friday repeated an earlier warning to refining companies urging them to focus more on building domestic inventories of gasoline and diesel and less on exports, or the administration could consider “emergency measures.”

Last week’s discussions “raise significant concerns that the administration might pursue a ban or limits on refined petroleum products,” which would disrupt energy markets, discourage investment in the oil sector, cut off European allies in a time of need, boost Russia’s strength as an energy exporter, and raise fuel prices domestically, said a joint letter by the American Petroleum Institute and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufactures.

The letter also noted limits on pipeline capacity and U.S.-flagged tankers capable of carrying gasoline and diesel from the Gulf Coast to the northeastern U.S. mean the area depends on imported fuels, whose prices could rise with fewer U.S. fuels on the world market.

Seeking Alpha by Carl Surran, October 7, 2022

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production Increased by 20% in 8 Months

Saudi Arabia’s average oil production increased since the beginning of 2022 until the end of August by 20 percent, a government document seen by Saudi Gazette showed.

The Kingdom’s production reached around 10.5 million barrels per day, higher by 1.8 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year.

The increase is due to the efforts by the OPEC+ agreement to support market stability and the performance efficiency for the benefit of the participants in the market and the petroleum industry.

Saudi Arabia expects the real GDP growth to reach 8 percent in 2022, driven by real GDP growth in oil activities and the sustained levels of growth in the non-oil activities, which is expected to record growth of 5.9 percent in 2022.

According to the OPEC monthly report on oil markets in August of 2022, global demand for oil is expected to register a growth of 3.1 million barrels per day compared to last year, to reach 100.03 million barrels per day.

Global demand for oil in 2023 is expected to grow by around 2.7 million barrels per day, to reach 102.72 million barrels per day.

It is worth noting that the share of the non-OECD countries constitutes the largest percentage of the growth in 2023, which is around 2.1 million barrels per day.

The report attributes this increase to the economic recovery in these countries and the increase in demand for fuel in the transport, industry, and petrochemicals sectors.

The average price of Brent crude futures increased, since the beginning of 2022 until the end of August, by 55 percent to record around $104.04 per barrel, compared to $67.06 per barrel during the same period last year.

The average prices of Brent crude futures have recorded their highest levels since 2008, with the closing price reaching $127.98 per barrel on March.8, 2022.

Despite uncertainty in the global markets during this year in the midst of the geopolitical events, the severe economic concerns and the tightening of the monetary policies to curb inflation around the world, the oil market has been characterized with stability compared to other energy markets such as natural gas, coal, and electricity.

The OPEC+ agreement contributed to supporting stability of the oil market in particular, and balancing supply with the gradual recovery in global demand for oil after the Coronavirus pandemic has faded.

ZAWYA BY Saudi Gazette, October 4, 2022

The Future of LNG Storage

The gold Global Tank Storage Award for Environmental Performance is awarded ‘to the product or technology that serves to protect the environment and/or reduce emissions at the terminal.’ In 2022, this award went to the GST membrane full containment system dedicated to onshore cryogenic storage developed by Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT).

‘It is a great honour for GTT and GST membrane full containment technology to be recognised and accepted by prestigious judges from the likes of Shell, BP, Vopak and Ineos in the LNG industry. Winning the gold also encourages GTT to continue optimisation of our technology offering industry a more environmentally friendly, competitive and attractive solution in terms of cryogenic storage tanks,’ says GTT’s business development manager Edward Chen.

WHAT IS GST?

GTT developed GST technology for onshore cryogenic storage. The GST membrane full containment system consists of a corrugated stainless steel membrane (304L) with a thickness of 1.2 mm, which serves as the primary membrane. The double network of corrugation absorbs the thermal contractions in both directions from the low temperature LNG, making it resistant to thermal loads. This primary membrane is made from prefabricated membrane sheets, which are welded onto the insulating panels and lap-welded over each other. The insulating panels can be tailored to a customer’s needs for boil-off rates, which is typically 0.05% per day.

The insulation panels are load bearing and can transfer internal loads to the outer concrete container, which provides the structural resistance to internal and external loads. On its inner side, the concrete container has a moisture barrier to prevent moisture from entering the tank. The GST system also includes thermal corner protection, as required by industrial standards, consisting of a composite material bonded on and in between the insulation panels to prevent liquid getting into the insulation (membrane failure).

GST tanks are designed to be liquid- and gas-tight in the case of a leak, and have continuous methane detection to monitor even the smallest of leakages from the primary barrier into the insulation space. This ensures high reliability and safe operation in service.

‘Onshore LNG tanks are being planned with increasing storage capacity to benefit storage demand and investment cost while GST membrane technology can be safely applied with no theoretical restrictions on the volume and is cost effective,’ Chen says.

THE ADVANTAGES OF MEMBRANES

As far as safety goes, both 9% nickel steel full containment tanks and membrane full containment tanks are considered equal in industry, forming the gold standard. Both contain both liquid and vapour under ordinary operating conditions. However, Chen explains that GST membrane technology specifically has a number of other benefits over 9% nickel steel tanks.

The design is flexible as it is based on standard modular components, so can be adapted for every structure without any major changes in design. The membrane represents an inherently safe system to prevent LNG leakage. It is not highly stressed, unlike the inner tanks of nickel steel tanks, so a failure of the membrane will result only in a slow leakage of LNG into the insulation space, which will be detected in the nitrogen purge stream.

The robust technology is suitable for seismic areas, as the forces created by seismic activity are transferred to the outer concrete shell, preventing sliding. The thin wall of the inner tank of a nickel steel tank is prone to uplift, increasing compressive buckling stresses. The concrete outer tank of the GST system is also more resistant to tsunami waves.

Construction of GST membrane tanks is also simpler, with must less specialised labour required on site, due to the use of prefabricated components. These components need to be placed onsite and only the stainless steel liner must be welded. Much of the welding has been automated. Welding thick nickel steel plates onsite, on the other hand, requires a specialist welding qualification.

‘Offsite manufacture of insulation panels and membrane fabrication can significantly reduce on-site manhours, resulting in higher productivities, higher quality, and reduced labour rates, leading to an overall reduction in unit costs. The simplified modular technology, the industrial prefabrication of the containment elements, and the easiness of the erection make the GST membrane system cost-competitive and schedule effective, compared to 9% nickel full containment,’ says Chen.

He adds: ‘Membrane technology also offers operators the possibility to decommission, open and inspect tank inside with no risk if needed, due to unlimited thermal cycle performance.’

STANDING OUT

Chen believes that the Awards judges noted the lower environmental impact of a GST tank compared to a conventional 9% nickel steel full containment LNG tank. GTT uses a unit defined by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) know as the ‘Average World Citizen Equivalent Unit’. This unit takes into account various aspects including carbon emissions, fossil resources used, particulate matter emissions, water used, and mineral and metal resource depletion. A 220,000 m3 GST LNG onshore tank scores 2029 Average World Citizen Equivalent Units. The same tank in 9% nickel steel scores 2636 Average World Citizen Equivalent Units, 23% higher.

Overall, this makes GST a more sustainable LNG land storage system than other systems available.

Not only that, but the technology has recently been chosen for a number of major projects, including eight 220,000 m3 above-ground LNG tanks for Beijing Gas Tianjin South Port LNG Terminal in China, three 229,000 m3 tanks at Novatek Arctic LNG-2 GBS in Russia, and one 29,000 m3 above-ground LNG tank for Huagang Gas Hejian Peak-shaving Station in China.

‘As the state-of-art membrane technology has been accepted by most oil and gas majors and large utility companies, it is likely to reshape the cryogenic tank market – volume and technology wise – thereby driving further innovation and optimisation, which can lead to reductions in unit costs and schedules for LNG storage tanks and also to lower carbon footprint,’ says Chen.

BUILDING PROJECTS AND DEVELOPMENT

GST technology was derived from GTT’s Mark III system for LNG carriers and GTT built its first onshore membrane-based tanks for ethylene in the 1970s in France. The tanks are still operating commercially. The company developed membrane technology for LNG in the 1980s, when it built two 120,000 m³ onshore membrane tanks for Montoir (France) LNG Receiving Terminal. These have been in commercial operation for more than 40 years and are expected to be in service until 2035.

GTT developed the GST system in 2007, to comply with the EN 14620 standard, which was updated in 2006 to include the need for a thermal protection system. Currently. 37 GTT-built membrane tanks are in operation, mainly in France, Japan, South Korea and China.

The technology is obviously proven and well-used and 20 more GST tanks are currently under construction, in larger sizes than many of the current tanks.

One of the biggest construction projects is in China, where GTT is building tanks at Beijing Gas Tianjin South Port LNG Terminal.

‘GTT and Beijing Enterprises Group (the parent company of Beijing Gas Group) signed a collaboration memorandum of understanding (MoU) in December 2019 witnessed by two presidents; then officially launched a cooperation to build two large membrane onshore tanks (220,000 m3 per tank) for Beijing Gas Tianjin South Port LNG Terminal in 2020,’ says Chen. ‘Thereafter in March 2021, GTT and Beijing Gas Group strengthened collaboration by extending cooperation agreement to build another six large membrane tanks.’

The first two tanks are expected to be commercial operational by the end of 2022.

GTT is now looking at commercialising even larger scale tanks with capacities in excess of 300,000 m3 in the near future.

‘GTT is also developing a mid-scale modular membrane tank which can be constructed in the fabrication yard and transported to job site for installation and pre-commissioning. This concept can significantly reduce cost and schedule compared to traditional stick-built LNG tanks,’ says Chen.

The current GST technology is ammonia-ready, making it ideal for the energy transition.

GOOD EXPOSURE

Chen says that GTT entered the Awards due to the reputation of Tank Storage Magazine within the LNG industry. The company saw its entry as a way to more widely announce the state-of-the-art GST technology and the recent projects in which it has been used.

‘The Tank Storage Awards have indeed linked GTT and GST technology to the industry more closely,’ he says.

By Tank Storage Mag, September 30, 2022

Sweating The Assets: Loh Wei

When Loh Wei first set foot on Jurong Island, two days into a graduate role in chemical engineering, the landfill had yet to be placed. The only way to access the planned industrial zone, rising out of seven reclaimed islands off the coast of Singapore, was by boat.

My boss at the time wanted me to go to the site and have a look,” the now CEO of Jurong Port Universal Terminal (JPUT) tells The CEO Magazine. “It took me about two-and-a-half hours from where our office was to get to the site, and another two-and-a-half hours back home.”

More than 20 years later and Loh can reflect on how this now globally renowned energy chemicals hub has been the constant across his career.

“I’ve built my career around Jurong Island,” he says. “Petrochemicals, infrastructure, energy, oil, gas. I’ve been through the whole cycle of it.”

For the first decade or so, while working for SembCorp, he was more “an operations and hands-on guy”, he explains, before making his way into business development. As General Manager (Development) at the Singapore Liquefied Natural Gas terminal on the island, he spent five years developing the terminal, driving an expansion project to double capacity.

It was in early 2021, while working for the government-owned Jurong Port as General Manager for Jurong Port Tank Terminal (JPTT), that the opportunity arose for Jurong Port to acquire the Universal Terminal oil storage facility.

I’ve built my career around Jurong Island. Petrochemicals, infrastructure, energy, oil, gas. I’ve been through the whole cycle of it.

While the COVID-19 pandemic was a difficult time for all, Loh is also aware that the pandemic is what triggered “a string of coincidental” events that enabled Jurong Port to acquire a stake in the Universal Terminal. “Due to COVID-19, Hin Leong put this asset up for sale. And we were in the right place at the right time to be able to put in a winning bid,” he admits.

In buying the 41 per cent share previously owned by oil trader Hin Leong, Jurong Port became the single largest shareholder of the oil storage terminal alongside other owners MAIF (part of Australia’s Macquarie Group) and PetroChina International (Singapore).

Necessary infrastructure

Prior to working with JPUT, Loh had spent five years building up JPTT from scratch. “As General Manager of the joint venture with tank storage company Oiltanking, I was tasked with not only the project approval but also lobbying the shareholders and the banks to put up the cash in the form of the equity and loan we needed to build the terminal,” he reveals.

Once the final investment decision was made, Loh turned his efforts towards the operational aspect of the facility. “From a three-person office, we became a 40-person business in the course of 18 months,” he says with a smile. “Then we secured our first customer.”

“JPUT is a port, but not in the traditional sense,” Loh explains. “We’re an oil terminal and oil hub. Traders use us to physically store or warehouse their oil so they can then trade or blend this important energy commodity.”

Efficiency on a Large Scale

The JPUT facility boasts a storage capacity of 2.33 million cubic metres; 78 custom-built storage tanks (in 13 tank farms); the ability to accommodate tankers up to 320,000 deadweight tonnage; 15 deepwater berths (nine for barges and six for tankers); a 1,000-metre-cubed to 3,000-metre-cubed average product loading rate; and a 23-metre berth draft, with the scale to accommodate two fully laden, very large crude carriers simultaneously.

Situated on 56 hectares of land (the equivalent to 60 football fields) at the southern edge of Jurong Island, the terminal is one of the largest petroleum storage facilities in Asia–Pacific.

And in the biggest bunkering port in the world – Singapore sells nearly 50 million tonnes of bunker fuel annually – nearly one-third of that total volume flows through JPUT. “We are actually a cornerstone, a necessary infrastructure to keep oil flowing,” Loh says. “Container ships need it so there’s no delay to your deliveries, your sofas, your TVs, your online purchases. We play a vital role in that sense.”

Look back to look forward

Nine months into running the terminal, Loh called a meeting with his entire team of 120 people. The reason? To start sketching out a five-year plan. “But in order to look forward to the next five years, we had to look back at what had been done in the previous five years,” he notes. “Because you must understand your past before you know where your future is.”

Especially when, for the best part of that time, the terminal was under other management. Loh brought a way of running the business that was considerably different. “Amid the changes to the market due to IMO2020, followed by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, I had to implement new strategies,” he reflects.

The terminal, as Jurong Port had inherited it, was a trader’s terminal. “The trader, Hin Leong, traded its own oil and had its own logistics chain, so its own shipping, oil vessels and distribution network. It was essentially a vertically integrated business,” Loh explains.

In order to look forward to the next five years, we had to look back at what had been done in the previous five years. Because you must understand your past before you know where your future is.

Self-sufficient, the terminal was operated as a critical piece of the overall company. “The remaining clients who used the storage facilities at the terminal were just additional icing on the cake,” he adds, and it was just a select few who were welcome to make use of the facilities.

“The DNA of Jurong Port, and the remaining two shareholders, MAIF and PetroChina, is very different. We are now a purely independent terminal, much like the OPEC Systems and Oiltankings of the world.”

This independence is a selling point. “We can assure clients that when they put oil in our terminal, we will take good care of it and that their competitors won’t know how much oil they have in our tanks. Everybody competes on a level playing field.”

Working the assets

Now, as he looks towards the next five years, Loh is building out from the framework he has inherited. “Currently, we are purely an asset infrastructure terminal operator,” he explains. “I have no oil to trade or ships to lease.”

He’s had to tell the shareholder base that the time has come for a different approach.

“Since we no longer have access to the underlying oil to trade, we have to sweat our assets, to work them harder,” he says. It’s around this strategy that he’s built a long-term plan. “It’s all centred around increasing and developing new revenue lines through logistics chain integration, pipeline connectivity and data.”

Under the strategy, storage will no longer be the sole contributor to the business. Instead, to integrate the logistics chain, new pipeline networks are planned, which will connect the terminal to refineries and petrochemical facilities on Jurong Island. Once operational, trade will flow freely, something Loh notes “used to be frowned upon because rival terminals wanted to protect their client base”.

However, Loh can see the bigger picture and the advantages such a network would bring to all parties. “In the oil business, traders need to physically exchange their oil,” he points out. Currently, they can do this by chartering a vessel or exchanging it among the terminal’s customers. Not only does this proposed pipeline optimise the process, but it is also a way to enlarge JPUT’s trading community.

Additional logistics services are also planned that will deliver improved efficiency and effectiveness to customers, such as mass flow meters, bunker barges and lighterage services.

And Loh has also pinpointed another potential revenue stream as he looks to diversify business activities: financial and data integration. “We are an active participant in the Singapore Trade Data Exchange with SGTraDex because we believe our digital transformation will help Singapore’s oil trading ecosystem.”

Since we no longer have access to the underlying oil to trade, we have to sweat our assets, to work them harder.

For JPUT’s customers, the data it sends to SGTraDex – a digital infrastructure designed to securely share data between oil trading and supply chain ecosystem partners – is potentially valuable as it enhances efficiency as well as transparency, which may lead to better financing terms.

“We’re going to help our customers transform their treasure trove of data that they store with JPUT by digitalisation. This digital transformation will allow our customers to improve their business whether it is to their customers or to their financiers,” he says.

JPUT will have to invest in new hardware and software, improve its business processes and upskill its workforce to enable such digital transformation, but Loh believes this is an important step in the overall strategy for the future of the company.

A delicate balance

With more than a decade of executive leadership behind him, Loh now talks confidently about the leadership values that he holds onto as he drives JPUT towards new business avenues. “It’s so important to constantly make yourself available to your people and to listen to them,” he insists.

That means everyone from the ground staff to the operations team, or “the people who hold the tools”, as he describes them. “Similar to going to war with your lieutenants and your colonels, being present and there to listen to them makes them a cohesive group,” he says.

I don’t want to be too aggressive and destroy the winning formula I have, yet I can’t be too tentative if I want to go ahead and implement the changes.

Then there’s the immediate leadership team, who he says he also stands alongside in battle. “Many times I let their opinion become my decision – this empowers them and puts them in a position to deliver because it’s their recommendation,” he says. “Because I’ve listened to them, they listen to me.”

Yet he’s also not afraid of telling them, “It’s the Loh Wei, not the highway”.

As he steers a team made up, in part, of people grown accustomed to the old management regime, Loh knows change management is inherently challenging. “I do have a few major material changes that I want to implement to this organisation, including introducing new blood, a new way of thinking to help propel the change,” he hints.

Auto Pilot

There’s one very successful concept that Loh is thankful the terminal’s previous owners implemented. “We are the only terminal in Singapore to have our own pilots to guide the vessels when they arrive,” he says. “The customers love it because there is a pilot on demand, rather than having to join a queue.”

He says that JPUT is in talks to develop the concept further – to start training its pilots to receive big oil tanker vessels. “This will allow our customers to optimise as they’ll save a lot of anchorage time for their vessel.”

It’s a fine balance he’s playing with. “I don’t want to be too aggressive and destroy the winning formula I have, yet I can’t be too tentative if I want to go ahead and implement the changes. Maybe next year, we’ll have another interview and I’ll tell you whether or not I’ve been successful,” he says with a grin.

Given the direction he’s leading JPUT, there’s little doubt Loh will be.

By The CEO Magazine, September 30, 2022

How Much Crude Oil Does The EU Still Import From Russia?

Russian crude oil imports into the European Union and United Kingdom fell to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 2.6 million bpd in January, but the EU was still the biggest market for Russian crude, according to the IEA.

The UK has already stopped importing Russian crude following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and the EU will ban imports from December to strip the Kremlin of revenue to fund the war. read more

Imports from the United States have replaced about half the 800,000 barrels of lost Russian imports, with Norway providing around a third.

The United States could soon overtake Russia as the main crude supplier to the EU and the UK combined – by August, U.S. imports lagged those from Russia by just 40,000 bpd compared with a 1.3 million bpd pre-war average, according to the IEA.

Outside the EU, Russia’s top crude oil export markets are China, India and Turkey.

WHAT ARE THE ALTERNATIVES TO RUSSIAN CRUDE?

Under the looming ban, the EU will need to replace an additional 1.4 million barrels of Russian crude, with some 300,000 bpd potentially coming from the United States and 400,000 bpd from Kazakhstan, the IEA has said.

Norway’s largest oilfield Johan Sverdrup, which produces medium-heavy crude similar to Russia’s Urals, also plans to ramp-up production in the fourth-quarter, potentially by 220,000 bpd.

The IEA says imports from other areas such as the Middle East and Latin America would be needed to fully meet EU demand.

Some Russian oil will continue to flow into the EU via pipelines as the ban excludes some landlocked refineries.

HOW MUCH DOES THE EU DEPEND ON RUSSIAN CRUDE IMPORTS?

Germany, the Netherlands and Poland were the top importers of Russian oil in Europe last year, but all three have capacity to bring in seaborne crude.

Landlocked countries in Eastern Europe, such as Slovakia or Hungary, however, have few alternatives to pipeline supplies from Russia.

The EU’s dependence on Russia has also been underpinned by companies such as Rosneft (ROSN.MM) and Lukoil (LKOH.MM), controlling of some of the bloc’s largest refineries.

Russian crude oil flows, based on loading data in August, rose month-on-month to Italy and the Netherlands, where Russian oil major Lukoil owns refineries, according to the IEA.

The German government on Sept. 16 took control of the Rosneft-owned Schwedt refinery which supplies about 90% of Berlin’s fuel needs.

On the same day, the Italian government said it hoped Lukoil would find a buyer for its ISAB refinery in Sicily, which accounts for a fifth of the country’s refining capacity.

Reuters by Nerijus Adomaitis, September 30, 2022


Oil Prices Rise After Basra Terminal Spill, But Set For Weekly Decline

Oil prices rose on Friday as a spill at Iraq’s Basra terminal appeared likely to constrain crude supply, but remained on track for a weekly decline on fears that hefty interest rate increases will curb global economic growth and demand for fuel.

Brent crude futures were up 70 cents, or 0.8%, at $91.54 a barrel by 1:43 p.m. EDT (1743 GMT).

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.40.

Both benchmarks were down about 1% on the week, hurt partly by the U.S. dollar’s strong run, which makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The dollar index was largely flat on the day , but on track for its fourth weekly gain in five weeks.

In the third quarter so far, both Brent and WTI are down about 20% for the biggest quarterly percentage declines since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Oil exports from Iraq’s Basra oil terminal are being gradually resumed after they were halted last night due to a spillage, which has been contained, Basra Oil Company said.

The spill at the port, which has four loading platforms and can export up to 1.8 mln barrels per day, drove up prices on the prospect of lower global crude supply.

“That definitely threw a scare into the market because the initial report was that those barrels were going to be out of the market for some time,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Investors are bracing for a large increase to U.S. interest rates, which could lead to a recession and reduce fuel demand. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 75 basis points at a Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.

“The increasing likelihood of global recession, as underscored by the recent renewed downturn in equities could continue to provide a limiter of upside (oil) price possibilities into next month and possibly beyond,” Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

The market also was rattled by the International Energy Agency’s outlook for almost zero growth in oil demand in the fourth quarter owing to a weaker demand outlook in China.

“Both the IMF and World Bank warned that the global economy could tip into recession next year. This spells bad news for the demand side of the oil coin and comes a day after the IEA forecast (on) oil demand,” said PVM analyst Stephen Brennock.

“Recession fears coupled with higher U.S. interest rate expectations made for a potent bearish cocktail.”

Other analysts said sentiment suffered from comments by the U.S. Department of Energy that it was unlikely to seek to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve until after the 2023 financial year.

On the supply side, the market has found some support on dwindling expectations of a return of Iranian crude as Western officials play down prospects of reviving a nuclear accord with Tehran.

Oil prices could also be supported in the fourth quarter if OPEC+ members cut production, which will be discussed at the group’s October meeting. Europe faces an energy crisis driven by uncertainty on oil and gas supply from Russia.

U.S. crude supply appeared headed for an increase, as energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in three weeks as relatively high crude prices encouraged some firms to drill more, mainly in the Permian Basin, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co.

Reuters by Shadia Nasralla, September 30, 2022

ARA Independent Fuel Oil Stocks Hit Four-Month Low (Week 38 – 2022)

Independently-held oil products inventories in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) held steady on the week, according to consultancy Insights Global, as a drop in fuel oil and gasoline stocks was balanced out by rising gasoil, naphtha and jet storage.

Fuel oil stocks fell to their lowest since June, marking a week-on-week drop. Unworkable export economics to Asia-Pacific bunkering hub Singapore could have weighed on demand for taking out storage in ARA for assembling large cargoes for long-haul exports.

Fuel oil stocks also fell on the back of a slowdown in imports from Russia. No imports of Russian fuel oil into ARA have been spotted since late-July, as EU sanctions on coal from 10 August include customs codes which fuel oil is be exported under if the aromatics content is higher.

Gasoline stocks also dropped lower on the week. Improved economics for long-haul exports out of Europe could have contributed to the drop in stocks, while autumn maintenance at European refineries could also be providing a ceiling to output.

More gasoline was reported to be heading up the river Rhine into France.

Naphtha stocks meanwhile rose on the week, amid an increase in demand for the product as a gasoline blending component. Demand from the other major outlet — the petrochemical sector — has slowed because extreme natural gas prices have prompted run cuts at petrochemical facilities.

Gasoil stocks rose on the week, driven higher by firm imports into northwest Europe, which is structurally short of diesel. Product continued to arrive from Russia, as well as ports in the Mideast Gulf and Asia-Pacific as buyers begin to source alternative supplies ahead of EU sanctions deadlines on Russian oil imports in February.

Jet fuel stocks also rose because of higher import. With seasonal demand from the aviation sector slowing, jet imports could be blended into the diesel pool, particularly given extremely-high crack spreads for the latter product.

Reporter: Robert Harvey

Oil Prices Rise On Concerns Over Tight Supplies

Oil prices rose in volatile trade on Tuesday as worries about tight fuel supplies ahead of winter offset investor concerns about lower demand in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, and further increases in U.S. and European interest rates.

Brent crude had risen 50 cents, or 0.5%, to $94.50 a barrel by 0644 GMT, while WTI crude increased by 52 cents, or 0.6%, to $88.30 a barrel. Both contracts fell by more than $1 earlier in the session.

Worries over tighter inventories continue to support prices.

In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 9, the lowest since October 1984, according to data released on Monday by the Department of Energy.

U.S. President Joe Biden in March set a plan to release 1 million barrels per day over six months from the SPR to tackle high U.S. fuel prices, which have contributed to inflation.

U.S. commercial oil stocks are expected to have fallen for five weeks in a row, dropping by around 200,000 barrels in the week to Sept. 9, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, will issue its inventory report at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

“We remain constructive on oil prices despite intensifying headwinds to demand, as the supply side remains supportive with slower-than-expected U.S. output growth and a proactive OPEC+,” Amarpreet Singh, an energy analyst at Barclays, wrote a note.

Prospects for a revival of the West’s nuclear deal with Iran remained dim. Germany expressed regret on Monday that Tehran had not responded positively to European proposals to revive the 2015 agreement. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that an agreement would be unlikely in the near term.

Capping gains on oil prices on Tuesday were renewed concerns about lower global fuel demand, as China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, continues to impose COVID-19 curbs.

The number of trips taken over China’s three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday shrank, with tourism revenue also falling, official data showed, as strict COVID-19 rules discouraged people from travelling.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data is set for release at 1230 GMT on Tuesday. While expectations are that the core inflation rate may show a peak, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are prepared to increase interest rates further to tackle inflation.

“The odds for the Fed to keep aggressive rate hikes will be strengthened if U.S. CPI comes out hotter than expected,” said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets.

That could lift the value of the U.S. dollar against other global currencies and make dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors.

By Reuters, Stephanie Kelly, September 16, 2022

China’s Crude Oil Demand Rebounds as Refiners Prepare to Ramp Up Output

At least three Chinese state oil refineries and a privately run mega refiner are considering increasing runs by up to 10% in October from September, eyeing stronger demand and a possible surge in fourth-quarter fuel exports, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Chinese refiners are expecting Beijing to release up to 15 million tonnes worth of oil products export quotas for the rest of the year to support the no. 2 economy’s sagging exports. Such a move would signal a reversal in China’s oil products export policy, add to global supplies and depress fuel prices.

After a recent slide in benchmark Brent crude prices to below $100 a barrel, Chinese refiners have taken arbitrage opportunities to boost stockpiles, traders said, booking supertankers to haul crude oil to China from the Americas and Middle East.

An official with a state refinery said his plant is eyeing a 10% hike in runs from September to about 240,000 barrels per day (bpd). “We’re raising runs next month in preparation for a possible opening in exports, though nobody has a clear idea how big the opening would be,” the official said.

A second official with another state refinery said his plant is also planning about an 8% hike in throughput next month, but added that the plan had been driven by firmer domestic margins. A third state refinery expects to restart a 60,000-bpd crude unit next month after maintenance, one of the sources said.

China’s single largest refinery Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp, which is capable of processing 800,000 barrels per day of crude, is aiming to ramp up runs in the coming months from the current levels of 700,000-750,000 bpd, according to two sources familiar with its operations.

A ZPC representative confirmed the firm is considering a run increase due to signs of economic recovery, but declined to elaborate further.

Average refining rates at China’s state-owned refineries had climbed to 73.74% as of last week, up 2.56% from end-August, according to Chinese brokerage SHZQ Futures.

Run rates at independent refineries in Shandong, whose combined refining capacity accounts for a fifth of China’s total, also rebounded last week after falling for five weeks since mid-July.

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The rebound in China’s crude demand has boosted the lumpsum freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) sailing from the U.S. Gulf and the Middle East to China to their highest since May 2020 at about $10 million, according to data from Simpson Spence Young on Refinitiv Eikon.

“I believe that China-bound freight rates strengthen on the hope of a China demand recovery… the rumour of an extra large amount of product exports in Q4 also fueled market optimism,” said Emma Li, an analyst from Vortexa Analytics.
China’s crude oil demand rebounds, drives supertanker freight rates to highest since 2020

U.S. crude arriving in China in October is expected to hit the highest since December 2020 at 450,000 bpd, up from about 300,000 bpd in the August-September period, said Vitkor Katona, lead crude analyst from analytics firm Kpler.

Middle East crude shipments to China are also rising, with September loadings set to reach 4.7 million bpd, 4% higher than in August and 8% higher than July, Kpler data showed.

Onshore crude inventories in China fell to about 986 million barrels in mid-September, down 6% from a peak of 1,049 million barrels at end-June, according to data analytics consultancy Kayrros.

Reuters by Muyu Xu, September 23, 2022

China to Offer Europe a Lifeline this Winter with More Diesel Exports

China’s refiners are set to release huge stocks of diesel onto the world market just in time to meet winter demand, according to industry sources.

Refinitiv, a unit of the London Stock Exchange Group, said Beijing has granted refiners up to 15 million tonnes of oil product quotas for the rest of the year, partially reversing an export ban imposed last year.

Mr John Driscoll, managing director of consultancy JTD Energy Services, said any expanded exports from China would provide relief to a jittery market facing tight supplies ahead of winter.

“If China goes ahead with expanding its diesel exports, it will be viewed as a positive and constructive move for market,” he added.

“Other regional refiners might not be too pleased because the additional supplies will soften the market outlook, but consumers will not be complaining.”

Mr Yaw Yan Chong, director of oil research at Refinitiv, said most of the new export quotas would be for diesel, used commonly as heating fuel and power generation.

He noted that China exported an average of two million tonnes of diesel a month before petroleum export curbs that came into effect in July last year restricted shipments to around 525,000 tonnes a month.

While Beijing has not officially made an announcement on the quota, Mr Yaw said he expects diesel exports to revert to pre-clampdown levels in the months ahead.

Beijing manages exports of refined products using a quota system, issuing several batches of allocations over the course of a year. It uses calibrates product shipments to global markets to manage domestic supply and demand.

Refinitiv data also shows that the fresh quotas would bring total oil product exports by China for the year to 39 million tonnes, up 4 per cent from 2021.

Mr Yaw said the move to expand exports was unprecedented, especially as recent policy in the world’s second-largest economy has been to curb excessive domestic refinery production amid a broad plan to reduce carbon emissions.

He noted that the policy had cut exports of refined petroleum products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel over the past year because China’s nationally run refiners had to fill the vacuum left by private refiners and meet domestic demand.

“We believe that most of this export quota will be for diesel and that it is driven by the Chinese refiners wanting to cash in on the strong international margins for the product in the face of poor domestic demand due to months of widespread pandemic-enforced lockdowns in the country,” he said.

Diesel is widely used as heating fuel in the northern hemisphere in winter but supplies this year have been under severe pressure because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Price-reporting agency Quantum Commodity Intelligence expects any increased exports from China will make their way west.

“It increases the likelihood that Asian volumes will head into the European market, where supply has tightened considerably since the Ukraine war. Spreads are likely to stay wide for some time as Europe seeks to replace Russian oil products after European Union sanctions begin in February.”

Diesel margins, or the profits a refinery makes for producing the distillate fuel, were trading around US$45 a barrel in mid-September but had weakened to around US$35 a barrel as at Friday’s Asian market open.

Around half of Russia’s petroleum product exports went to Europe before the Ukraine war, noted the International Energy Agency (IEA), but stinging sanctions imposed by Western powers on Moscow’s energy shipments have caused severe supply disruptions and sent fuel and electricity costs to historic highs.

The impact is reverberating globally as European states scour the world for alternative supplies.

In Europe, gas-to-oil switching for power generation has added to the usual seasonal demand for winter fuel.

The Straits Times, by Luke Pachymuthu, September 23, 2022