U.S. Oil Refiners, Pipeline Companies Expect Strong Demand For Rest Of 2022

U.S. oil refiners and pipeline operators expect energy consumption to be strong for the second half of 2022, even though analysts and industry watchers have worried that demand could falter if the global economy enters a recession or high fuel prices deter travelers.

The company outlooks suggest a stronger view than recent data showing weakness in U.S. fuel demand, particularly in gasoline, where consumption recently hit its lowest level since February even though this is the middle of the peak summer driving season.

U.S. gasoline product supplied over the past four weeks recently fell below 2020’s level for the same time of year, when the United States was in the depths of the pandemic.

Energy companies including Energy Transfer LP and PBF Energy Inc say energy demand will be strong in the second half of 2022, according to a Reuters review of company earnings calls.

“Management sees what’s going on on the ground so any time they’re calling out positivity when demand data has been showing otherwise, we find that interesting,” said Kian Hidari, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co. “It’s still a strong environment for gasoline compared to historical levels.”

U.S. refiners are also benefiting from high exports of transportation fuels to Latin America, and plants are expected to run at high utilization rates to restock inventories that were drawn down when fuel supply cratered earlier this year.

Refiner exports of finished petroleum products were largely in line with five-year seasonal averages at 3.02 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, the latest data available, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That was nearly 65% higher than the pandemic low reached in May 2020.

U.S. oil output has recovered to 12.1 million bpd, helping boost pipeline and terminal volumes for many midstream companies for the second quarter from a year ago. Energy Transfer reported a stronger-than-expected second quarter performance and boosted its guidance for the rest of the year, said Co-Chief Executive Thomas Long.

Of the 16 midstream companies that reported earnings last week, more than half revised guidance higher, said James Mick, Portfolio Manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors.

The four-week average of implied demand for gasoline fell to just under 8.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week to July 29, lowest since February, according to EIA data, though the weekly figures can be volatile.

“We are constructive on the outlook for transportation fuels, supported by low product inventories and healthy global demand,” HF Sinclair Corp Chief Executive Michael Jennings said on a call with analysts on Monday.

Inflation is soaring this year, but with U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerating in July, economists are less worried about an impending recession.

The only U.S. refiner to note some demand tapering in its earnings call was CVR Energy Inc, specifically in the mid-continent, which includes states such as Kansas and Oklahoma, Hidari said. The company said it has seen some demand destruction as consumers shy away from driving because of retail gasoline prices that have reached over $4 per gallon.

IBT by Stephanie Kelly, August 23, 2022

Chinese Oil Giant Sinopec Likely to Enter Lankan Fuel Market Amid Beijing’s Debt-Trap

As Sri Lanka remains mired in Chinese debt, China’s largest petrochemical giant, Sinopec, is expected to begin retail operations in the Lankan gasoline market, according to local media quoting sources.

According to reports, Sinopec is set to join the Sri Lankan market for the purpose of importing, distributing, and selling petroleum products, according to the Daily Mirror. This comes after Sri Lankan Cabinet Ministers accepted a plan in June to enable additional corporations from oil-producing countries to import oil and begin retail operations in Sri Lanka.

Kanchana Wijesekera, Minister of Power and Energy, presented the suggestion.

It is important to remember that the biggest economic crisis in Sri Lanka’s history has resulted in a severe scarcity of vital products such as fuel. Long lines at petrol stations are the new normal in Sri Lanka, and prices vary according to supply.

The country’s economy is bracing for a rapid contraction due to a scarcity of basic supplies for manufacturing, an 80 percent devaluation of the currency since March 2022, a lack of foreign reserves, and the failure of the country to pay its international debt commitments.

A serious foreign exchange shortage motivated the recent decision to allow the Chinese to enter Sri Lanka’s petroleum retail business. At the moment, the state-owned Ceylon Petroleum Corporation supplies 90 percent of Sri Lanka’s fuel, while Lanka Indian Oil Corporation supplies the remaining 10 percent (IOC).

Sinopec already has a presence in Hambantota, where it runs an oil storage.

Sri Lanka has been experiencing an expanding economic crisis since the beginning of 2022, and the government has defaulted on its international loans. According to the UN, 5.7 million people “require immediate humanitarian assistance.”

According to a media source, although Sri Lanka is experiencing its greatest economic crisis since independence, with food and fuel shortages, China has turned a blind eye to the problem and transferred blame to the borrower.

Despite the epidemic, the government was attempting to recover its economy, but the tourist industry was severely harmed, according to an article in the Global Strat View think-tank. Tourism accounts for 10 to 15% of the Sri Lankan GDP.

The COVID-19 problem, the loss of visitors, excessive government spending and tax cuts depleting state income, and the use of money for ventures with low returns have all led to Sri Lanka’s economic disaster.

Sri Lanka sought assistance from China, requesting a USD 1 billion loan to cover repayments and a USD 1.5 billion credit line to purchase Chinese goods; but, despite months of discussions, no progress was made.

newsx by Vaishali Sharma, August 23, 2022

Crude Oil Futures Trade Lower Amid Discussions on Iran Nuclear Deal

Any revival of the 2015 nuclear deal will help add more crude oil to the global market

Crude oil futures traded lower on Monday morning with the US discussing the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with some European nations.

At 10.01 am on Monday, October Brent oil futures were at $95.52, down by 1.24 per cent; and September crude oil futures on WTI were at $89.30, down by 1.26 per cent.

September crude oil futures were trading at ₹7150 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹7231, down by 1.12 per cent; and October futures were trading at ₹7133 as against the previous close of ₹7195, down by 0.86 per cent.

According to media reports, the US President Joe Biden on Sunday spoke with the leaders from countries such as France, Germany and the UK. He discussed the ongoing negotiations toward a nuclear agreement. This included the ‘need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East region’.

Any revival of the 2015 nuclear deal will help add more crude oil to the global market, as it will lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil by western nations. Last week, Iran had responded to a proposal by European Union (EU) to revive the deal. Iran had urged the US to show a ‘realistic approach and flexibility’ to resolve remaining issues in the deal.

In addition to this, power crisis in China (a major consumer of crude oil in the global market) also affected crude oil prices. Last week, Sichuan province in China started limiting power supply to consumers due to a severe power shortage. The power scarcity was driven mainly by extreme heat waves and drought.

September natural gas futures were trading at ₹732.70 on MCX in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹741.70, down by 1.21 per cent.

NCDEX

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), September castor futures were trading at ₹7566 in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹7534, up by 0.42 per cent.

September steel long contracts were trading at ₹51710 on NCDEX in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹52810, down by 2.08 per cent.

Business Line by BL Mangaluru Bureau, August 23, 2022

Is WTI Crude Oil Set Within a New Ranging Market?

Russian production, the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates, and the weakened dollar. What other factors are driving crude oil prices these days?

Macroeconomics

On the macroeconomic side, the greenback diminished its gains on Wednesday following the U.S. Central Bank’s July minutes. Indeed, during its monthly meeting, the Fed appeared to be more hawkish than expected.

This raised concerns from some officials in the U.S. Central Bank, who were debating whether the Fed could raise rates too far to regain control of inflation on the one hand, and the need for further hikes on the other.

As I mentioned in my last article published last Thursday, when all data turns into bearish territory for both legs – the greenback and black gold – it is usually the optimism (or pessimism, depending on which point of view we take) triggered by the macroeconomic perspective that leads the markets.

In that case, as the news has rather been bullish for the US dollar, it is the one which will set the tempo for the positively or negatively correlated assets.
Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the weekly change in Crude Oil Inventories.
U.S. crude oil inventories

The commercial crude oil reserves in the United States surprised the market by sharply dropping to -7.056M barrels while expectations were just showing a tiny drop (-0.275M barrels).

US crude inventories have thus decreased by over seven million barrels in volume, which is a very significant deviation displaying greater demand and is a strong bullish factor for crude oil prices, since the drop can be explained, in part, by the increase in U.S. crude exports, which more than doubled last week to 5 million barrels per day (Mbpd) against 2.1 Mbpd.

The decline in commercial reserves is due to strong domestic demand and rising exports as US trading partners seek to compensate for the loss of Russian hydrocarbons.
U.S. Gasoline inventories

Like the previous week, U.S. gasoline demand figures have significantly dropped as well:

Graphical user interface, text, applicationDescription automatically generated

This is once again where we could see a sustainable rise in demand marked by an unexpectedly sudden drop in gasoline reserves, since the latter were reduced by four and a half million barrels. Another factor to note is that a few refineries also operated at a lower rate of capacity, at 93.5% versus 94.3%.
Geopolitics

On the geopolitical scene, the ongoing negotiations around the Iranian nuclear agreement, which could allow this major producer to resume its exports, still hover over prices as a bearish factor.

However, even a return to the market of Iranian crude oil production would not compensate for the loss of Russian supply. In short, there is little new information about this agreement.

Midweek, black gold gained 5% after rebounding from a 6-month low, as a sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories outweighed fears over rising Russian output, export sales, and recession concerns.

By FXStreet, August 19, 2022

‘We Got Too Comfortable’: The Race To Build an LNG Terminal in North Germany

Country is hoping a new North Sea terminal can supply 8% of its gas usage as war in Ukraine upends energy policy.

As tourists at the Hooksiel resort on Germany’s North Sea coastline lean back in their wicker beach chairs or stomp around the mud flats, the cast-iron jetty that stretches for 1.3km into the ocean to their right is a familiar sight. The frantic clanging of metal on metal at its furthest tip, however, is new.

Built in 1982, the jetty was designed to host not just two import terminals for chemicals but also one for liquefied natural gas (LNG), shipped in on tankers from the US. With cheap Russian gas beating LNG for price, those tankers never arrived. Two adjacent plots of land, reclaimed from the North Sea to make space for industry, instead attracted rare warblers and bitterns.

But as Russia’s war in Ukraine upends decades of German energy policy, getting LNG tankers to dock on the Hooksiel jetty is suddenly a matter of national priority.

Wilhelmshaven, the nearby historic port city, has become emblematic of a two-fold, seemingly contradictory promise made by Germany’s government: that it can import LNG to compensate for throttled gas imports from Russia at record speed, belying a reputation for bureaucratic plodding; and that the jetty into the North Sea will carry LNG – a polluting fossil fuel – for only a short time, soon to be replaced with a more climate-friendly substitute.

Wilhelmshaven is one of five floating LNG terminals Germany is rushing to build by the end of the year, creating infrastructure that a study in July by the Fraunhofer Institute argued would be vital to avoid cold homes and closed factories this winter not just in Germany but across all of Europe as Vladimir Putin turns off the tap.

The Höegh Esperanza, a 300-metre long tanker converted into a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit and chartered by the German government at a mooted cost of €200,000 a day, will dock at the jetty and turn liquid back into gas at a rate of about 10 hours per tanker load.

Roughly 80 tankers are expected to arrive at Wilhelmshaven each year, substituting half of the gas imports the German energy company Uniper used to have from Russia, or 8% of Germany’s overall gas usage before the start of the war.

Shortly after Russian troops crossed on to Ukrainian soil in the spring, the talk was that building LNG terminals would take three to five years. Now politicians are confident the terminal and its connecting pipeline can be built in seven months, with works finishing on 21 December and gas flowing the day after.

Uniper, which is managing the build, is only slightly more cautious, saying windy weather in the colder months could yet delay completion until the second half of the winter.

Behind-schedule building projects, such as Berlin’s new airport and Hamburg’s Elbphilharmonie concert hall, have in recent years busted myths of German efficiency. The LNG terminals are trying to buck the trend by instead emulating the model behind the creation of Tesla’s new Gigafactory in Brandenburg, with building works already starting while permit applications are still being scrutinised.

“Everything that’s usually done step by step, we are now doing in parallel,” said Holger Kreetz, Uniper’s chief operating officer for asset management, on a boat trip to the far end of the Hooksiel jetty at the start of the week.

Environmental impact assessments, usually a requisite step, are simply being skipped. The economic affairs minister, Robert Habeck, a Green party politician and self-proclaimed “biggest porpoise fan in the government”, has shrugged off concerns that building works could disturb the endangered aquatic mammals basking in Jade Bay. Ensuring Germany was no longer blackmailable by Putin had to take priority, he said.

Germany’s about-face from Russian natural gas pipelines to shipped-in LNG will not just test the political credibility of the Greens. “It’s hard to admit, but we probably wouldn’t have got around to building these terminals so quickly if it wasn’t for the war,” said Olaf Lies, the centre-left Social Democrat environment minister for the state of Lower Saxony. “To an extent, what is happening in Wilhelmshaven now also shows up the political failures of the past. We got too comfortable and neglected other projects we should have tackled.”

The hope is that Europe’s energy crisis could be an opportunity to take strides towards a greener future rather than be a setback for its climate targets, said Lies, who insisted that the Hooksiel jetty would host a “molecule terminal” rather than one specific to LNG.

As Germany has committed to being greenhouse gas-neutral by 2045, the pipelines on the North Sea coast would soon not be pumping LNG but green hydrogen, produced by using renewable electricity to drive an electrolyser that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen, Lies said in an interview.

Some of the green hydrogen would be produced in Wilhelmshaven, where Uniper is converting a phased-out coal plant into an electrolyser. The rest would be imported via the new terminal infrastructure.

Open Grid Europe, the company connecting the terminal to the national gas grid, said its pipelines were 100% hydrogen-compatible barring some additional insulation before a switch over. Tests are proceeding to establish whether a natural underground salt dome outside Wilhelmshaven, where German emergency crude oil supplies have been stored since the 1970s, could hold hydrogen.

“The big energy exporters of tomorrow aren’t going to be those countries rich in natural gas, but the ones that have plenty of wind, sun and water,” Lies said, painting a picture of his home town’s reinvention as a renewable energy hub for imports from Australia, South America and Africa. “Green Wilhelmshaven” brochures have already been printed.

Among Wilhelmshaven’s residents some scepticism remains. The coastal city north of Bremen is a place of superlatives: the largest hub for Germany’s military, which coordinates its maritime forces from here; the country’s only German deepwater port; and the largest import terminal for crude oil, pumped all the way down into the industrial heartland in the Rhine valley. It was here that a sailors’ revolt against the Kaiser’s orders in October 1918 set off a chain of events that swept away the old German empire.

But triumphant highs in Wilhelmshaven’s history have been swiftly followed usually by humiliating lows. After emerging as a pirate stronghold in the 14th century its fortress was destroyed by the Hanseatic League. Flourishing as the hub of the German imperial navy under the rule of Kaiser Wilhelm II, it was cut down to size by the restrictions of the Versailles Treaty. After Hitler used the square in front of Wilhelmshaven to denounce the naval agreement with Britain, in April 1939 came Allied bombs, destroying two-thirds of the city’s residential buildings.

The city’s unemployment rates have still not recovered from the closure of the typewriter maker Olympia in 1991 and a loss of almost 3,000 jobs.

Floating LNG terminals are unlikely to change that, since they come with their own trained staff; one official put the number of jobs created at no more than 20.

While the new terminal will not spoil the vista from Wilhelmshaven’s Südstrand tourist spot, or stink out the seaside air, some residents have concerns around the project’s long-term function.

“It’s an opportunity, but also a risk,” said Fritz Santjer, an electrical engineer and member of Scientists for Future, an initiative started three years ago in support of the Fridays for Future climate movement.

Santjer, who lives on a green plot of land by the dyke in the neighbouring village of Sande, added: “If the government follows up on its plans to expand offshore wind farms, then we’re making real progress to meet the Paris agreement, and floating LNG terminals could be a good bridging technology on that path. But what if we have a new government in four years, which decides the targets are unrealistic and is quite happy to keep pumping fracking gas? Are we certain Germany will switch to hydrogen then? Do we know whether it will be green or blue?”

The pressure group Environmental Action Germany warns that the pipelines built in Wilhelmshaven will create more capacity for gas imports than required to bridge a nervous winter, and also lead Germany to miss its carbon reduction targets.

Last Friday, climate activists blocked parts of the pipeline building site at Hooksiel and poured sand into the tanks of diggers. A spokesperson said the damage caused would not set back the works’ timeline.

While the enthusiasm of German politicians and energy companies for green hydrogen is palpable, economic realities may yet tie them to non-renewable gas for longer than they desire. China and Japan, the globe’s largest importers of LNG, have underused their long-term options with suppliers this summer, allowing Europe to rake in their off-takes. Come winter, they may insist on their share of the market, forcing countries like Germany into long-term commitments.

Berlin’s negotiations over an LNG deal with Qatar are reportedly proving more difficult than expected, because the gas-rich Middle Eastern state was insisting on a contract running over 20 years until 2042.

For Wilhelmshaven to become the symbol of Germany’s carbon neutrality success in 2045, the country needs to keep up its newly found momentum.

By The Guardian, August 19, 2022

ARA Independent Oil Product Stocks Hit 11-Month Highs (Week 33 – 2022)

Independently-held refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose during the week, reaching their highest since September 2021.

Stocks of all surveyed products rose on the week, with naphtha inventories rising by more than any other. The European naphtha market has been chronically oversupplied throughout the summer, and low water levels on the river Rhine have made it more difficult to move naphtha to destinations inland.

The virtual impossibility of moving significant quantities of refined products inland has freed up some barge capacity over the past week, cooling a rise in freight that dates back to the beginning of July.

Gasoline blending activity in the ARA area rose on the week, albeit from a relatively low base. Arbitrage outflows to the US and west Africa slowed slightly, but outflows to the Mediterranean and other European destinations increased.

The increase in the number of available barges in the ARA helped reduce some of the congestion that has slowed production this summer.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Engro, Excelerate to Develop Gas Marketing Biz in Pakistan

Engro Eximp FZE, a subsidiary of Pakistan’s Engro Corporation, has signed a memorandum of understanding with New York-listed Excelerate Energy to develop a gas marketing business in the south Asian nation, Engro said on August 3.

The companies will jointly evaluate the possibility of establishing a regasified LNG (RLNG) marketing business. “This initiative has the potential to increase private company participation in Pakistan’s LNG sector and enhance Pakistan’s energy security by opening up new RLNG supply avenues for businesses and consumers,” the company said.

Elengy Terminal Pakistan, a joint venture between Dutch Vopak LNG Holding and Engro, operates a floating LNG terminal at Port Qasim near Karachi. The terminal has been chartered under a long-term contract from Excelerate.

The terminal currently fulfills as much as 15% of Pakistan’s natural gas requirements, Engro said.

Natural Gas World by Shardul Sharma, August 16, 2022

PNOC Seeks Creation of Strategic Petroleum Reserves

State-run Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) wants to push through with the establishment of a strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), along with an interim oil stockpiling program, in a bid to provide oil supply security and price stability in the country.

PNOC has issued an invitation for negotiated procurement for transaction advisory services for its SPR program.

The SPR, or a strategic oil stockpile, is an emergency fuel storage of oil and petroleum products maintained by either the government or private entities, or both, which are released during periods of local or international oil supply disruptions.

According to PNOC, the main purpose of the SPR is to temporarily replace the physical volumes of imported oil or refined petroleum products that may be lost in the short-term during an emergency.

PNOC will engage the services of a transaction adviser to prepare the detailed feasibility study for the development of a national SPR.

The comprehensive feasibility study is expected to cover the technical, legal, social, environmental, financial and economic viability aspects, as well as the risk assessment in developing and implementing the project.

If a national SPR is determined to be viable for the country, PNOC said the study must assess potential sites, considering all the currently existing storage facilities that can be used for SPR development.

Likewise, the best stockpile ownership options, methods and technologies to be adopted, composition and volume as well as estimated total project cost should be determined.

Recognizing that any SPR program would entail gradual build-up of volume and presence in strategic locations, PNOC is also requiring its transaction adviser to come up with a study on the establishment of an interim oil stockpiling program that can be undertaken in the near term as a transition phase leading to the full-blown SPR.

“The objective of this short-term undertaking is to provide a response mechanism that the government may immediately employ in times of oil-related emergencies,” PNOC said.

Being a country that is almost completely reliant on imports to supply its crude oil and petroleum product requirements, PNOC said pump prices in the Philippines are heavily affected by price adjustments caused by complications among different parties on the global stage, on top of problems within its own borders as well as natural and man-made disasters.

philstar GLOBAL by Richmond Mercurio, August 16, 2022

ARA Independent Stocks Tick down (Week 32 – 2022)

Independently-held refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 10 August, down from the 11-month highs recorded a week earlier.

The overall fall was led by a drop in stocks of light ends naphtha and gasoline.

The week on week fall in gasoline inventories was the first recorded since June, and was prompted by an increase in flows to west Africa.

Blending activity in the ARA area appeared to increase on the week, but not sufficiently to offset the rise in outflows. Gasoline stocks had been building throughout the summer, supported by a relatively lacklustre summer driving season in the northern hemisphere caused by high retail prices.

Naphtha stocks fell on the week to reach their lowest since June, having been at their highest since March 2021 just a week earlier.

Petrochemical end-users have been rushing to move naphtha inland on barges in response to tightening loading restrictions on the river Rhine. Water levels on the river are now approaching the all-time lows recorded in October 2018, and freight rates from the ARA to upper-Rhine destinations like Switzerland are already at all-time highs.

But the increasing use of smaller barges with lesser draughts to carry product inland has freed up some larger capacity barges in the ARA area, bringing prices on some intra-ARA routes down from recent four-month highs.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Egypt to Double Oil Storage Capacity at Al-Hamra Port in 3 Years: Asharq

Egypt is working to double the oil storage capacity at Al-Hamra Port within three years, Asharq reported citing an industry source.

With the expansion, the capacity will increase to 5.3 million barrels of crude oil.

This comes within the framework of the government’s plans to develop the new Alamein area, as well as becoming a regional center for energy storage, trading and trade. 

Operated by the Western Desert Operating Petroleum Co. and built to handle ore produced in the Western Desert, Al-Hamra Port has six storage tanks and one buoy mooring facility for loading and unloading.

“Expansion plans have been in place for several years and today we laid the foundation stone for them. The aim of the expansions is to develop the new Alamein area and provide energy for the factories that will be established there,” the source added. 

By Arab News, August 9, 2022