Exxon’s $8 Billion Bet On Brazil Is Paying Off

Despite Exxon’s recent exploration hurdle, Brazil has big plans for its oil industry as it hopes to increase its production levels significantly throughout 2022. With uncertainty around what the Russian invasion of Ukraine will mean for the energy industry over the coming months, Brazil is hoping to fill a supply gap as countries around the world look for alternative oil and gas sources. In addition, the replacement of state-run Petrobras’s CEO could shake up Brazil’s oil and gas industry.

Exxon Mobil Corp is currently exploring a new area off the northeast coast of Brazil, but its first well came up dry this week. This is Exxon’s first drilling development in Brazil in a decade, a region that it hopes will help boost its long-term production potential.

The energy major has invested heavily in the Brazil and Guyana oil markets in recent years, in the hope of discovering new low-cost oil regions that will help sustain its output and where it can implement low-carbon technologies as it strives to eventually achieve net-zero.

With a stake in 28 offshore blocks, Exxon hopes this stumble will not hinder its production potential in the region. Exxon’s spokesperson, Meghan Macdonald, stated “While we didn’t encounter hydrocarbons at this particular exploration well (Cutthroat-1), ExxonMobil will continue to integrate the data from our findings into regional subsurface interpretation efforts in order to better understand the block’s exploration potential.”

And some of Exxon’s other projects have been more fruitful. Its operations with Norway’s Equinor in the Bacalhau offshore field are expected to produce 200,000 bpd of oil and gas by 2024. In 2021, Exxon announced it would be investing 40 percent of an $8 billion total in the field.

This month, Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, announced plans to boost the country’s oil production by 300,000 bpd, around a 10 percent increase in 2021. Brazil’s output already stands at around 3 million bpd of crude putting it at around ninth place in the world for production. 

Albuquerque told the Valor Econômico newspaper, “Countries that have stock, like the US, Japan, India, and others, are releasing. But there also has to be an effort to increase production.

She [Jennifer Granholm] asked me if Brazil could be part of this effort and I said ‘of course it can’. We are already increasing production, while most OECD countries have reduced. We have increased our production in the last 3 years.” 

The statement came in response to international pressure for oil-producing states to ramp up their oil and gas production as shortages are leading to energy insecurity and rising prices worldwide.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil prices soared. In addition, as several countries introduce sanctions on Russian energy products, many governments are looking for alternative sources of oil and gas to ensure their energy security over the coming months. 

But some are not so confident about Albuquerque’s aim to increase production. There are plans for three offshore projects to come online in 2022 – the Petrobras Mero 1, with the Guanabara FPSO, producing approximately 150,000 bpd of oil, and Equinor’s Peregrino phase 2 and Peregrino 1 producing around 110,000 bpd. However, the reduced output in Brazil’s other maturing oil fields will likely reduce this output increase. 

A local consultant told Bnamericas, “In reality, the increase would have to be over 15%, with 5% to 8% to compensate for the natural decline and another 10% to actually increase production.

That would be 500,000b/d of new capacity, which is very unlikely.” This view has been echoed by several experts in the field, suggesting Albuquerque may not be able to deliver on his promise. 

While this rapid production increase may not be possible, big changes to the country’s state-owned company could mean a change to the national oil industry is just around the corner.

This week, President Bolsonaro moved to replace Petrobras CEO Joaquim Silva e Luna with a new head. The appointment of economist Adriano Pires as CEO of Petrobras and sports giant Rodolfo Landim as chairman is expected to take place in April.

Pires has been adamant in his stance on market pricing policies, pushing for the privatization of the state-run energy firm. Silva e Luna was appointed as CEO only last year after his predecessor was pushed out, suggesting somewhat of a trend. At present, Petrobras shields consumers from the global volatility of energy prices.

But many have suggested that the oil prices should reflect the Brent Benchmark, adjusting fuel prices accordingly. However, with the next election taking place in October, Bolsonaro could lose voters if diesel and gasoline prices continue to rise. 

Recent stumbling blocks in the search for new oil finds have not dampened Brazil’s optimism for developing its oil industry further over the coming years.

As new operations come online, Minister of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, has announced production increases in response to international shortages. In addition, there is the potential for change in state-owned energy company Petrobras as a market-oriented CEO takes over.  

OILPRICE by Felicity Bradstock, April

As Demand for Fuel Soars, U.S. Refineries Reach Capacity

U.S. refineries are reaching their capacity for the first time since the pandemic started, pushing up fuel costs already at record highs after Russia invaded Ukraine and roiled global oil markets.

Refineries in the United States are operating at 92 percent of capacity, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, meaning most of their refining units are full.

“(Refiners) are looking at ways to put more barrels through,” said John Auers, executive vice president of refining at energy consultancy Turner, Mason & Co. “And they’re going to do that. But right now they’re full.”

The industry lost significant capacity during the pandemic as refineries closed permanently — a reckoning forced by mounting costs and declining future prospects for gasoline as the energy transition accelerated. 

Now they’re having to do more with less as the global market loses gasoline and diesel from Russia, which had been a major exporter of refined products to Europe.

With refineries nearing capacity, it’s more difficult for the U.S. to fill the gap left by the loss of Russian products, which comes as demand for fuel recovers from the pandemic, analysts said.

Refinery closings have stripped 3 million barrels per day from the global market since January 2020, including 1 million barrels a day in the U.S, according to the industry trade group American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers.

“Even if refineries hadn’t closed and even if stocks were at more normal levels, there’d have been a price spike just because of how much supply — Russian export — is being removed from the market,” said Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global.

“But it likely wouldn’t have been as severe or as long lasting as the one we will deal with now.”

The diminished refining capacity is more palpable for diesel and jet fuel, of which Russia was a major supplier, Smith said. “Not coincidentally, that’s the product family that’s really skyrocketed,” he said, referring to the rise in demand for those products.

The tight refining market is a far cry from the early days of the pandemic, when the first stay-at-home orders hit and the rate of refinery utilization plunged to its lowest level since at least the early 1980s. Utilization rates fell to 70 percent in April 2020 from 93 percent in December 2019, according to the EIA.

As the pandemic kept people home and off freeways, it accelerated the energy transition and hastened the closures of some refineries. 

Shell closed its Convent refinery in Louisiana last year, taking 240,000 barrels per day of capacity from the market as part of a company effort to reduce carbon emissions. Also last year: multiple years of hurricane damage cemented Phillips 66’s decision to close its Alliance refinery in Lousiana, which processed 255,000 barrels of crude per day.

HOUSTON CHRONICLE by Amanda Drane, April 5, 2022

Vitol: Oil Is Underpriced For Current Supply Risks

The recent slump in oil prices does not reflect the actual risk of Russian supply disruption, a senior executive of Vitol has warned.

Brent crude dropped from close to $140 per barrel right after the start of the war in Ukraine to $104 per barrel last week as the United States and the International Energy Agency announced massive reserve releases.

However, this would not be able to offset lost Russian barrels over the next few months, Bloomberg quoted Mike Muller, head of Vitol’s Asian operations, as saying.

“Oil feels cheaper than most would’ve predicted,” Muller said on a podcast produced by Gulf Intelligence. “Oil prices could be higher given the risk of disruption of supplies from Russia. But people are still lost figuring out those numbers.”

In the third quarter, Muller said, Russian oil and oil product exports could be down by between 1 and 3 million barrels daily, from 7.5 million barrels daily under normal circumstances.

Muller also noted that demand was going to continue to strengthen despite China’s recent dip because of the resurgence of the coronavirus.

“China will throw the kitchen sink at making sure the economy delivers,” Muller said. “We are going to see China put a massive effort into infrastructure spending and propping up the economy. You’re going to see a big outlay.”

At the same time, any additional supply from Iran will be slow in coming. This weekend, Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the parties at the nuclear deal negotiating table were close to an agreement, adding, “We have passed on our proposals on the remaining issues to the American side through the EU senior negotiator, and now the ball is in US court.”

Oil started the week with a decline after the Houthi rebel group in Yemen and the Saudi-led coalition agreed to a truce that alleviated some Saudi oil supply concerns sparked last month by a string of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil targets.

OILPRICE by Irina Slav, April 5, 2022

China’s “Zero-COVID” Policy Could Crush Its Energy Storage Ambitions

In such uncertain times, there are few economic sectors that are a 100% sure bet for investors – but energy storage certainly seems to be one of them. As the world leans more earnestly toward decarbonization and the United Nations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sound a “code red for humanity” as the window of opportunity to avoid the worst impacts of global warming rapidly closes, energy storage has become one of the fastest-growing industries as demand for clean energy heats up.

The global energy storage market is on track to hit one terawatt hour by 2030, a quantity that would mark a more-than 20-fold increase over the already groundbreaking 17 gigawatts/34 gigawatt-hours that were online at the end of 2020. “Overall investment in battery storage increased by almost 40% in 2020, to USD 5.5 billion,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported at the end of last year.

“The global storage market is growing at an unprecedented pace. Falling battery costs and surging renewables penetration make energy storage a compelling flexible resource in many power systems,” says Yiyi Zhou, a clean power specialist at Bloomberg BNEF. “Energy storage projects are growing in scale, increasing in dispatch duration, and are increasingly paired with renewables.”

The breakneck increase in storage capacity is largely being driven by China and the United States, which are currently embroiled in a quietly simmering energy storage war. Each of these countries added gigawatt-scale additions of energy storage capacity in 2020. Together, China and the U.S. represent more than half of the global energy storage market projections for 2030.

China is currently winning the race, having more than doubled its energy storage capacity additions in 2020. What’s more, in July of last year, Beijing announced that it is planning to install 10 times more capacity than its 2020 levels by just 2025.

Now, a new plan released this year shows that China aims to achieve this breakneck pace for energy storage addition by butting the cost of electrochemical energy storage systems by 30% by 2025. The 5-year plan released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration also outlines the complete commercialization of non-hydro energy storage systems by 2030. “The country will seek breakthroughs in long-duration storage technologies such as compressed air, hydrogen, and thermal energy, and aim for self-reliance in key fields,” Bloomberg reports.

“It will conduct pilot programs using various technologies to meet different storage duration requirements, lasting from minutes to months.”

The ramping up of non-hydro energy storage capacity installation will take place in tandem with the expansion of wind and solar capacity development, which is to be built out at a massive scale in China’s desert regions. This will help China achieve its goal of weaning itself off of foreign energy imports and shore up Beijing’s energy security and energy independence.

Long-term energy storage will allow energy produced in China’s sparsely populated deserts to be piped into the country’s massive and energy-hungry urban areas. “The country will also explore storage technologies for power produced by offshore wind farms, so as to reduce transmission capacity needs and improve the utilization rate of the electricity generated,” says Bloomberg.

As straightforward and promising as these plans may be, Beijing’s ambitious plans for clean energy development and increased investment in energy storage are coming at a time when China’s economy is in trouble.

Current Covid lockdowns in the affluent economic hub of Shanghai are costing the country a stunning $4.6 billion USD a month, amounting to about 3% of the nation’s GDP. The country’s “zero-Covid” approach is being derided as a “fiasco” as 62 million Shanghai-area residents (a group larger than the population of Italy) are being locked into their homes and locked out of the economy.

If President Xi Jinping continues to try to outgun the novel coronavirus instead of adapting to mitigate and coexist with Covid, many of China’s most ambitious plans may prove to be out of reach.

OILPRICE by Haley Zaremba, April 4, 2022

ARA Independent Oil Product Stocks Fall (Week 13 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 30 March, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Tightness in oil products supply gave market participants little incentive to store material at independent tank facilities, bringing overall stocks close to the seven-year lows recorded in mid-February.

Loading and discharge delays were heard around the ARA area, aggravated by refinery maintenance turnarounds in the region concentrating loadings at relatively few terminals.

Gasoil stocks fell to reach six-week lows, weighed down the departure of tankers for Germany and west Africa. Barge flows to destinations along the river Rhine were broadly steady on the week.

Loading restrictions prompted by low water levels reduced the number of barges available to spot charterers, as two or more barges are currently needed to move the same volume as is usually possible on just one. Seagoing tankers arrived from Russia and the US.

Gasoline stocks were stable on the week. Blending activity continued apace, stimulated by the production of new summer-grade fuel. Tankers arrived from Denmark, Finland, France, Italy and Spain, and departed for Canada, Mexico, Spain, Sweden, the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks fell, amid ample demand from gasoline blenders that contributed to the loading and discharge delays in the regional barge market. Tankers arrived from Finland, Portugal, Russia, Spain and the US, and departed for the Mediterranean.

Jet fuel stocks rose, reaching their highest since September 2021 as part of seasonal restocking ahead of the summer season. A single tanker arrived in the ARA area from the UAE while cargoes departed for the UK.

Fuel oil stocks fell, with the arrival of cargoes from Estonia, Poland, Russia and Sweden insufficient to offset the departure of cargoes for the Mediterranean, the UK and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

South Korea Aims to Gradually Increase Net-Zero Oil Portion in US Crude Imports

South Korea finds competitive US crude highly attractive in times of surging benchmark oil prices, but Asia’s biggest US crude customer also aims to enhance its green energy practices by gradually increasing the share of net-zero crude oil in the overall feedstock imports from the North American producer.

Major South Korean refiners said light sweet US crude grades are typically placed on the list of top monthly feedstock choices, especially in times of high global energy prices, as the North American barrels come cheaper than many Middle Eastern grades thanks to US-South Korea free trade agreement. Persian Gulf producers, on the other hand, continue to raise their official selling prices.

South Korean refiners paid on average $78.88/b for shipments of US grades in January, lower than $82.98/b paid for Saudi Arabian crude imports and more than $7/b cheaper than $85.94/b paid for Kuwaiti barrels, according to the latest data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp. The world’s fourth biggest crude importer took 119 million barrels of crude oil from the US in 2021.

Apart from feedstock economics, crude oil trading managers and officials at major South Korean refiners told S&P Global Commodity Insights that the companies have not forgotten about their commitments to reduce their carbon footprint and they are closely monitoring the growing availability of low carbon crude in the US and Europe.

The country’s top refiner SK Innovation said March 25 it plans to purchase 200,000 barrels/year of “net zero” crude oil from Occidental Petroleum Corp. for five years from 2025.

The company’s trading arm SK Trading International has signed the deal with the Permian-based producer in an effort to accelerate the company’s energy transition initiative, an official at SK Innovation said.

SK Innovation said it will refine the crude oil from Occidental into “net zero oil products” such as eco-friendly jet fuel so as to help reduce carbon emissions and combat climate changes.

“Buying US crude, it’s not all about just cutting costs or saving dollars and cents … US crude producers are rapidly enhancing their carbon capture technology and it’s sensible for an end-user with right ESG mindset to fully support and appreciate such efforts,” a feedstock and plant operation manager at SK Innovation’s Ulsan refinery said.

Net-zero oil, CCUS technology

Net zero oil refers to barrels produced through the direct capture and sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide via industrial-scale direct air capture facilities and geological sequestration, unlike those “carbon neutral crude” claimed by upstream companies by simply offsetting emissions using carbon credits, the SK Innovation official said.

SKTI explained that Occidental’s first net-zero oil is created by blending crude oil with environmental attributes generated from the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide captured via 1PointFive’s multi-solution platform for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration, or CCUS.

According to Occidental, 1PointFive is a CCUS platform with a singular purpose to help curb global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2050 through the commercialization of decarbonization solutions including Carbon Engineering’s Direct Air Capture, or DAC, Air To Fuels technologies and geologic sequestration.

1PointFive’s first DAC facility, which is expected to be online late 2024, will also include pure sequestration and is in the process of being deployed using Carbon Engineering’s industrial-scale DAC solution. The facility will extract atmospheric CO2 and permanently store it deep underground in geologic formations delivering permanent and verifiable carbon dioxide removal, according to SKTI.

“We are pleased to be a part of the world’s first carbon emission reduction initiative that is underpinned by processing net-zero oil on a life-cycle analysis basis. We are also thrilled to team up with Occidental, one of the most respected energy companies in the world,” Sokwon Suh, CEO of SKTI, said.

Carbon-neutral European crude

The latest agreement with SKTI and Occidental indicated that South Korean refiners are actively looking for ways to enhance and incorporate their ESG considerations from the feedstock front, with the country also expected to continue embracing carbon-neutral crude from Norway, according to market research analysts at Korea Petroleum Association.

South Korea’s second-largest refiner GS Caltex had purchased 2 million barrels of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup crude certified as carbon neutral at the point of production for delivery in September 2021.

GS Caltex has been buying Johan Sverdrup crude on a regular basis since then, with South Korea importing more than 17 million barrels of crude from Norway in 2021, compared with 8.5 million barrels received in 2020, 1 million barrels in 2019 and 5 million barrels in 2018, according to the latest data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp.

In June 2021, Sweden’s Lundin Energy, a partner in Norway’s giant Johan Sverdrup oil field, said all future net production from Johan Sverdrup will be certified as carbon neutral produced by Intertek, under its CarbonZero standard.

S&P Global by Gawoon Philip Vahn, March 31, 2022

Russia’s LNG Ambitions Put at Risk as Linde Exits

International sanctions do not directly target Russian gas producers but they prevent the supply of critical processing equipment and technology.

International chemicals giant Linde has joined a host of Western oil producers, oilfield service providers and technology players in exiting Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine, putting in doubt Moscow’s ambitions of becoming a major global exporter of liquified natural gas by 2030.

As a member of a consortium with Technip Energies and Russia’s Nipigazpererabotka, Linde is a key partner underpinning a multi-billion dollar engineering, procurement and construction contract for the Arctic LNG 2 export project led by Novatek, Russia’s largest independent gas producer.

In a statement placed on a corporate website, Linde said it is “working with the relevant governments and authorities to ensure the company fully complies with international sanctions and is safely winding down affected projects in Russia”.

In addition, Linde has “suspended all business development for new projects in Russia”.

Under the Arctic LNG 2 contract, Linde is supplying its proprietary natural gas liquefaction process for all three liquefaction trains under construction in the Novatek-managed specialised yard in Belokamenka, near the port of Murmansk.

The project includes the construction of three LNG trains, each with capacity of 6.6 million tonnes per annum.

The shareholders in Arctic LNG 2 are Novatek with 60%, TotalEnergies holding 10%, China’s CNPC and CNOOC with 10% each, as well as Japan Arctic LNG — a consortium involving Mitsui & Co Ltd — also holding 10%.

Novatek squeeze

Construction work is continuing at Belokamenka , according to the social media accounts of numerous site workers.

Pre-fabricated LNG train modules are shown in place having been transported from China recently. The modules are being rolled out to the concrete gravity-based foundation (GBS) of the first liquefaction train, according to Russian social network posts.

Novatek has said previously that all 14 heavy modules have been delivered to the yard and are set to be installed on the GBS during March.

According to the company, shareholders have provided an estimated 57% of the required $21.3 billion financing for the project by end of 2021, with the remaining bills to be paid from project financing loans arranged last year.

Novatek has not been specifically targeted by the current round of international sanctions but the impact of the measures have been felt at top management level.

Novatek core minority shareholder, Russian businessman Gennady Timchenko, on Monday resigned from the company’s board of directors after being targeted by new sanctions.

Additionally, Novatek executive chairman Leonid Mikhelson may have moved his 15% personal stake in the gas producer from a Cyprus-based company to Russia, according to reports in Moscow.

Long-term concerns

It is not yet clear the extent to which the projects in which Linde was involved will be affected, but service and maintenance without the cooperation of the original equipment manufacturer i seen as a challenge.

Before the Arctic LNG 2 contract was signed there was a move to procure Russian-made equipment for the project.

This local content push was making progress but Russian authorities eventually eased the rules to allow Novatek more freedom to order equipment from overseas to keep up with the project’s schedule.

According to Kirill Lyats, an independent energy analyst in Moscow, Russian manufacturers may eventually be able to replace foreign-made parts and technologies in the country’s LNG and gas processing projects.

“We would expect there to be a delay to the only currently under-construction LNG project, which is Arctic LNG 2 in the far north of Russia,” commented Chris Wheaton, an analyst at Stifel, an investment bank.

“As TotalEnergies has pledged not to supply more capital to the project, I would expect either another Chinese company or Saudi Aramco to replace them in the project,” he added.

The LNG plants themselves are being built by Wison in China and, as such, are likely to avoid sanctions. “But they may encounter problems in being able to be transported from China to the Gydan peninsula, as this requires specialist heavy lift vessels which are largely owned by western companies,” Wheaton noted.

It not yet clear yet how commercial offtaking and transport arrangements for the future production will be affected due to uncertainty about the future demand for Russian cargoes.

International sanctions have targeted Russian carriers such as Sovcomflot, which operates a fleet of 11 specialised LNG carriers capable of sailing through two-metre thick ice to serve Yamal LNG, with another 19 similar vessels under construction or on order to serve Arctic LNG 2.

Bleak prospects

Valery Chow, head of gas and LNG research at consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie, said sanctions are likely to hinder the ability of Novatek and Gazprom to deliver Arctic LNG 2 and Baltic LNG respectively.

Chow said prospects for Russian LNG projects not yet past the final investment decision, such as Arctic 1 and Far East LNG, are now ” bleak” and he said the Russian’s government LNG production target of 140 million tonnes per annum by 2035 looks “unachievable” at present.

Gazprom ventures

In addition to its partnership with Novatek for Arctic LNG 2, Linde has built several partnerships with Russian state-controlled gas producer Gazprom.

Two of these projects — the small-scale Portovaya LNG plant on the Baltic Sea coast and the huge Amur gas processing facility in East Siberia are close to completion.

Portovaya LNG has a capacity of 1.5 million tpa of LNG and is due online later this year.

The Russian government is believed to view this plant as a strategic outlet to deliver LNG to the country’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad if the region becomes isolated by Western sanctions.

The Amur processing plant treats gas from East Siberia before it is sent on to China.

Novatek also plans to build a blue hydrogen and ammonia facility on the Yamal Peninsula, next to the Yamal LNG.

Sanctions bite

US and European sanctions have prohibited the supply of equipment for hydrocarbon processing industries in Russia.

Linde has not replied to Upstream to confirm whether it expects to halt work on the four projects to comply with restrictions at the time of writing.

Chow suggested that China could emerge as the big winner from any disruptions to Russian LNG exports.

“Its negotiating power would be massively strengthened both as a LNG buyer and investor in Russian upstream and integrated LNG projects,” he said.

“We have seen Chinese interest in heavily discounted spot volumes. Competitively priced Russian LNG and better investment terms may ultimately also prove attractive enough for Indian buyers and investors respectively.”

upstream by By Vladimir Afanasiev, March 31, 2022

BP May Take $25 Billion Hit from Divestment from Russian Oil Company

P expects to lose up to $25 billion, more than a fourth of its market capitalization, after divesting from its 19.75% stake in the Rosneft oil company in Russia over the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

The London-based multinational energy giant, a major employer along the lakeshore in Northwest Indiana, warned investors it could eat a $25 billion loss after quitting the Russian market after 30 years over the country’s unprovoked war on its neighbor.

The company’s total market capitalization is about $90 billion.

BP, whose largest refinery is in Whiting, has owned roughly a fifth of Rosneft since 2013. Moscow-based Rosneft is a state-run petroleum refining company, the 24th largest in the world, that pulled in $122 billion in revenue, $20.9 billion in operating income and $14 billion in net income last year.

Rosneft is the second-largest state-owned company in Russia, which has faced international scorn and opprobrium since its unprovoked attack on the independent nation of Ukraine, which was previously under its control when it was still the Soviet Union before it collapsed in 1991.

BP expects to lose up to $14 billion in the carrying value of its shares in Rosneft and another $11 billion in foreign exchange losses accumulated since 2013 that were previously recorded in equity instead of on its income statement.

The write-down of $25 million is expected in BP’s first-quarter 2022 results, virtually ensuring a massive loss for the fiscal quarter and the full year. BP, which employs about 1,700 workers at the BP Whiting Refinery, recorded a profit of $12.8 billion last year amid rising oil prices.

The oil giant expects the financial fallout will be offset at least in part by rising crude oil prices, which now stand at around $110 per barrel, promoting gas prices to soar over $4 a gallon.

nwi.com by Joseph S. Pete, March 31, 2022

Analysis: When it Comes to Oil, the Global Economy is Still Hooked

The world may be less dependent on oil now than it was during the energy shocks of the 1970s, but the Ukraine conflict is stark evidence of a stubborn craving that can still disrupt economies, confound policymakers and spark political strife.

When the Yom Kippur War of 1973 triggered an Arab State oil embargo that convulsed world markets and sent inflation into double-digits, oil made up nearly half the global energy mix – a figure that has since dropped to around one third.

The shift came as rich countries focused more on services, factories became more efficient and electricity generation switched away from using oil to coal and natural gas instead.

A Columbia University study last year found that the same economic growth which half a century ago required one barrel of oil could now be had with less than half a barrel.

Some analysts had in recent years even speculated that the world economy could take future oil shocks in its stride. Others pointed to the COVID-19 lockdowns of the past two years as evidence that the economy could – in an albeit different form – function with dramatically lower oil consumption.

But the roaring back of oil demand in 2021 and the spike in oil prices triggered by the Ukraine conflict has highlighted again the size of the effort that will be needed to wean the global economy from an oil habit ingrained over decades.

Shifting oil demand is difficult in the short term as it requires trillions of dollars to replace legacy infrastructure such as vehicles and equipment, said Alan Gelder, VP refining, chemicals, and oil markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

“Investment is needed to reduce the linkage of economic activity and oil demand,” he said.

The latest rally in oil prices – up 50% since the start of the year – has buried the hopes nurtured last year by the world’s central banks that the inflation stoked by pandemic-era stimulus packages would be “transitory”.

Instead it has made it only too clear just how deeply oil permeates the internal mechanics of the global economy.

PETROL PUMP ANGER

Americans are driving less and airlines are charging higher fares. From the petrochemicals used in plastics or crop fertilizers to the fuel burned simply to ship goods around the world, crude oil derivatives are a big part of the higher prices that consumers are now paying for all kinds of essential goods.Oil and inflation expectations

In the United States, the Fed estimates that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices cuts GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point and increases inflation by 0.2 percentage point. In the euro zone, as a rule of thumb, every 10% rise in the oil price in euro terms increases euro zone inflation by 0.1 to 0.2 points, according to European Central Bank research.

Inevitably, that most visible impact is at the petrol pump.

Europe’s oil-importing nations are racing to offer motorists fuel rebates and other concessions, mindful of how their anger can spill over into wider protest – as it did with the “yellow vest” movement in France back in 2018.

Asia, as the region with not only the world’s largest demand for oil but also the fastest growth in demand, is also badly hit. Japan and South Korea are among those who are raising fuel subsidies to offset higher prices.

The world’s biggest oil producer, the United States, should be better shielded than others. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted on Monday that the country is clearly better able to withstand an oil shock now than in the 1970s.

But that did not stop him from delivering his strongest message to date on his battle with too-high inflation, suggesting the central bank could move “more aggressively” to keep an upward price spiral from getting entrenched.

EXPENSIVE HABIT TO KICK

If it took five decades for oil’s share in the global energy mix to fall from 45% to 31%, it remains an open question how quickly the world – now with its avowed goal of net-zero carbon economies – can further reduce that share.

Motorists’ switch to electric vehicles is expected to cause a tipping point in global oil demand, sending it into decline. Passenger vehicles are the sector with the largest oil demand use, consuming around one-quarter of the oil used worldwide.

“Oil intensity will from now on fall much faster, as global oil demand will peak within the next few years, thereafter to decline, while GDP will continue to grow,” said Sverre Alvik, energy transition programme director at energy adviser DNV, which sees electric vehicles reaching 50% of new passenger vehicle sales in 10 years.

Yet that is only one side of the story.

The rising demand for oil in Asia, plus the fact that key sectors like shipping, aviation, freight and petrochemicals are much further behind the auto sector in switching to alternative fuels, mean large areas of oil demand remain firmly entrenched.

“Our projections suggest that dependence on oil, particularly imported oil, is unlikely to disappear quickly,” IEA analysts concluded in a 2019 note entitled “The world can’t afford to relax about oil security”.

Such outlooks suggest that, even in a best-case scenario, the world’s transition from oil and other fossil fuel sources will pose new challenges for consumers and policymakers alike.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel this month used the term “fossil-flation” for the price to be paid for what she called “the legacy cost of the dependency on fossil energy sources”.

For Schnabel, that cost stems partly from how policies like carbon pricing make fossil fuels more expensive but more so because of how energy producers can create artificially tight markets to push prices up at the expense of importers.

Add to that the embargoes imposed on Russian oil by the United States and Britain, and Europe’s goal of cutting its Russian gas imports, and she concluded: “A marked decline of fossil energy prices, as indicated by current futures prices, seems rather unlikely from this perspective.”

Reuters by Sarah McFarlane, March 31, 2022

Shell Plans to Invest More than $24 Billion Into British Renewables

Shell (SHEL.L) will invest up to 25 billion pounds ($33 billion) into the energy system in Britain over the next decade, a senior executive at the oil major said, and over 75% of which will be funnelled into zero-carbon products and services.

Shell plans to invest between 20 billion pounds and 25 billion pounds, David Bunch, head of the company’s UK operations, said on Wednesday in a post on networking site LinkedIn, and mentioned offshore wind, hydrogen and electric mobility as focus areas.

The investment plans come weeks after the British energy company said it would withdraw completely from any involvement in Russian hydrocarbons and exit all its Russian operations after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

IEEFA.org by Sinchita Mitra, March 31, 2022