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Even as more countries and companies pledge to get to net-zero carbon emissions, the world will continue to require fossil fuels for years to come, analysts say, because oil and natural gas are so intertwined with modern life.

But for all the talk about getting to a low-carbon future, there’s been little granular analysis on which fossil fuels produced from which oil fields emit the least amount of harmful greenhouse gases. Sure, there’s a general industry consensus that coal is dirtier than natural gas and that offshore oil is cleaner than shale — but by how much?

That’s the question global energy research firm S&P Global Platts set out to answer with its recently revealed carbon intensity report, a monthly metric that calculates how much carbon is emitted from 14 major crude fields around the world.

Platts analysts said they saw growing demand for low-carbon crude from investors, consumers and producers looking to reduce their carbon footprint. They realized that calculating the carbon intensity of different fuels can help determine which oil and gas fields to focus production on while the world transitions toward cleaner fuels.

“Oil and gas will remain part of the energy mix for decades to come,” said Deb Ryan, Platts’ head of low-carbon market analytics. “In order for the world to meet ambitious emissions reduction targets, a premium value needs to be associated with the lowest carbon intensity oil and gas assets as these fossil fuels continue to play a role in the overall energy mix. By launching carbon intensity values and price premiums, Platts is bringing much needed transparency into the market.”

Platts looked at the carbon emissions from the production of various crude and natural gas fields. Not surprisingly, Platts found that the oil sands from the Cold Lake field in Canada had the highest carbon intensity among the 14 oil fields analyzed, because it takes more energy to extract oil from sand than it does from shale or conventional wells.

The analysis also found that a barrel of offshore oil from the Mars oil field in the Gulf of Mexico has about half the carbon emissions of a barrel of shale oil from the Permian Basin in West Texas.

Even within similar oil fields, there are small differences in carbon intensities.

For example, Platts found that crude from the Permian’s Midland oil patch has slightly lower carbon intensity than crude from the Permian’s Delaware basin. It also found that crude from the Permian had lower carbon intensity than that from the Eagle Ford and Bakken.

Offshore, crude from the Johan-Sverdrup oil field off Norway, which uses electricity to power production, had lower carbon intensity than crude from the Mars oil field in the Gulf of Mexico, Platts said. Crude from Girassol in Angola, Cantarel in Mexico and Tengiz in Kazakhstan had generally lower carbon intensity than crude from Tupi in Brazil and Kirkuk in Iraq.

Platts found there’s no clear correlation between carbon emissions from heavy sulfurous crude or light sweet crude, because the way that crude is extracted, processed and transported can increase or decrease the carbon intensity.

Ultimately, Platts’ carbon intensity metrics could be used to put carbon taxes on various crude and natural gas sources, said Paula VanLaningham, Platts’ global head of carbon. The higher the carbon intensity of a barrel of crude, the higher the carbon taxes. cost of a carbon offset would be.

“What this (metric) does is puts it into perspective about what it would cost to truly mitigate your emissions from one type of barrel of crude over a different one, and that’s pretty critical” VanLaningham said. “When you’re actually looking at the cost of managing your emissions footprint from the beginning , just managing the venting and flaring makes an enormous difference in terms of what the overall environmental impact of running one barrel of oil over a different barrel of oil would mean.”

HoustonChronicle by paul takahashi, November 18, 2021

Saudi Arabia says it wants to join the global fight against climate change — by drilling for more oil.

Rather than cut back on the production of fossil fuels that contribute the most to global warming, the Gulf kingdom wants to tap more of them to bring down emissions.

The idea is to help Saudi Arabia raise money for emission reduction technologies such as carbon capture, which would allow the oil-dependent country to keep running its rigs. Key to this strategy is Saudi Arabia’s continued export of oil around the world — a proven moneymaker that wouldn’t affect Saudi Arabia’s recent pledge to reduce its own emissions to net zero by 2060.

For under international standards, these oil exports would count as emissions for the importing country — and not Saudi Arabia.

The plan has been greeted with skepticism by international activists and analysts, who say the world needs to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels as fast as possible in order to avoid the increasingly severe storms, floods and heat that global warming brings.

“It’s a strange dichotomy,” said Jim Krane, an energy studies fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “Its success in reaching this goal hinges on the rest of the world continuing to use oil.”

But Saudi Arabia is limited in its options.

Oil revenues pulled in by national oil company Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco) contribute to around 60 percent of the government budget.

And so Saudi Arabia is put in a tough spot when international officials gather to talk about global warming, as they’re doing now in Glasgow, Scotland, for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference. Much of the discussion has centered on creating a pathway toward the end of fossil fuels.

“I think they realize they can’t rely on oil forever. At some point it will run out,” said Ellen Wald, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and author of “Saudi, Inc.” “But they definitely have the long view.”

Saudi Arabia’s new position on climate change represents a shift — at least rhetorically — from its past position on the issue.

Saudi Arabia has long lobbied to change or delete language that would go against its national interests. And it has sought to delay decisions at past U.N. climate conferences in its favor (Climatewire, Oct. 23, 2018).

A recent leak of documents obtained by Unearthed, a division of Greenpeace, showed that Saudi Arabia and other climate-polluting countries sought to water down language in an upcoming U.N. climate report that calls for a rapid phaseout of fossil fuels.

But the danger of global warming is becoming increasingly hard to refute — even for a petrostate such as Saudi Arabia.

More than a third of Saudi Arabia’s land area is desert, and rising temperatures will threaten water supplies, will turn heat waves deadly, and could make large parts of the country and the Gulf region uninhabitable.

A new carbon cycle

Saudi Arabia’s oil dependence runs deep.

Not only does oil revenue fund more than half the government’s budget, but Saudi Arabia argues that it needs that money to fund its energy transition and support research and development of new climate-friendly technologies.

In addition to exporting oil, it continues to burn it to generate power.

The country’s latest climate plan aims at “reducing, avoiding and removing” 278 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions annually by 2030 — more than twice its previous target. To help get there, it plans to increase renewable energy to 50 percent of the electricity mix by 2030, up from less than 1 percent currently.

Much of its plan also hinges on a proposed circular carbon economy, where hydrocarbons would be either recycled, removed or reused. Achieving that goal would require a major scaling-up of carbon capture capacity.

The total amount of carbon dioxide that has been removed from the air by current carbon capture projects is in the order of tens of thousands of tons, compared with the hundreds of millions of tons produced by these petrostates, said Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute.

And capturing that carbon and removing it is very, very expensive — around $600 a ton.

“You could have a state still producing oil and offsetting that by carbon removal in a net-zero world, but calling that state a petrostate would be a stretch, simply because there’s probably not going to be enough demand for oil globally in 2050 — or certainly in 2070 — to make it the centerpiece of a country’s economy,” Hausfather said.

Saudi Arabia is not the only country pinning its climate targets on such technology. The White House’s long-term climate strategy also leans heavily on carbon removal (Climatewire, Nov. 2).

Officials in Saudi Arabia are working to diversify some of its economy, such as building up tourism and financial services. It also could capitalize on growing demand for carbon offsets if it can scale up its carbon capture capacity quickly. But it’s still not giving up on oil.

“In fact, its implementation of its climate pledges are conditional on its ability to continue selling fossil fuels to finance its transformation,” Karim Elgendy, a fellow at Chatham House, wrote in an email.

It’s a pledge he thinks should be taken seriously.

“Saudi Arabia and Aramco’s view is that even if everyone switches over to EVs — which they don’t think is likely — the world will still need oil and oil products because all of these things that you need to, say, make a really light airplane that’s going to fly using a battery, need plastics. And plastics come from petrochemicals,” said Wald, the Atlantic Council fellow.

Even if oil demand in the developed world may be tapering off, Wald added, Aramco sees huge markets for its products in China, in India and across Africa.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not attend the leaders’ summit at the start of last week’s talks in Glasgow. But he did host a green forum the week prior in Riyadh that U.S. climate envoy John Kerry attended.

It was there that he announced the 2060 net-zero goal and committed $186 billion in public investment toward achieving that target.

Aramco has set an even more ambitious net-zero target of 2050, but that goal doesn’t include indirect emissions, such as the burning of the fuel it sells.

Rising demand and undersupply have sent oil prices surging this year. Aramco is planning to increase oil production from 12 million to 13 million barrels a day in the coming years to take advantage of a widening gap in the market as other major oil companies plan to ease production.

Yet Climate Action Tracker ranks Saudi Arabia’s latest targets as highly insufficient, saying its current diversification plans “do not adequately address scenarios in which global oil consumption significantly declines in the coming decades.”

While governments will rely on some level of carbon removal to achieve net zero, it needs to be as limited as possible, said Claire Fyson, co-head of climate policy at Climate Analytics, which helps produce the tracker.

At the opening of climate talks last week, Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados, said that relying on undeveloped technology was reckless.

But Khalid Abuleif, head of the Saudi negotiating team and a former oil executive, said the kingdom’s net-zero target had been well received.

“It balances many things and it’s much more realistic on the timeline,” he said, according to a report by Arab News. “It takes fully into account that Saudi Arabia is going through an accelerated economic diversification program that needs to be completed.”

EENEWS by Sara Schonhard, November 17, 2021

U.S. energy company Sempra Energy (SRE.N) said on Friday it will continue developing liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in Louisiana and Mexico while building the first phase of the Costa Azul LNG export plant in Mexico.

Justin Bird, CEO of Sempra Infrastructure, told analysts on the company’s earnings call that Costa Azul was “on time and on budget” to produce first LNG by the end of 2024. Costa Azul will produce about 3.3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG.

In addition, Bird said Sempra remains focused on working with partners at Cameron LNG to develop a roughly 6-MTPA fourth liquefaction train and optimize operations at the existing 15-MTPA, three-train facility in Louisiana.

Bird also said Sempra was developing the roughly 4.0-MTPA Vista Pacifico LNG export plant on Mexico’s Pacific Coast located next to its refined products terminal in Topolobampo.

Vista Pacifico would be connected to two existing pipelines and would source gas from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico for export to Asian markets, where LNG demand is growing fast.

As for customers interested in LNG, Bird said; “We are seeing a real uptick in our discussions both in Asia and Europe and…South America.”

“We have a competitive advantage, the ability to dispatch directly into Europe and Asia,” Bird said.

“Over the long term…we still see demand for LNG growing mid- to high single digits, which supports our long-term very bullish view on LNG development.”

In Europe, Bird said “there’s a tremendous amount of recognition… about the role for natural gas and specifically, LNG. And there’s certainly a new risk premium being assigned to pipeline gas.”

He was referring to delays in Russia sending pipeline gas to Europe in recent months, which helped cause prices in Europe and Asia to hit record highs in October.

Reuters by Scott DiSavino, November 8, 2021

Oil prices are through the roof and oil companies are raking it in. The oil industry has made a truly unbelievable turnaround after prices bottomed out last year during the early phases of the novel coronavirus pandemic and now some industry insiders are even speculating whether oil is on track to hit $100 a barrel. 

In early 2020, as Covid-19 rapidly spread around the globe, industry shut down and people were driven into their homes, causing demand for oil to plummet seemingly overnight. As OPEC+ entered talks to strategize their response, Saudi Arabia and Russia began a spat which developed into an all-out oil price war.

Soon, a global oil glut had flooded the market to such an extent that storage was at a premium and owning oil became a liability. This is how, on April 20, 2020 the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark did the previously unthinkable and plunged into the negatives, ending the day at nearly $40 below zero a barrel. 

Now, at the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate is at $83.89 a barrel. Last week Saudi Arabia warned the world that global spare oil capacities are falling rapidly. So has the pandemic-fuelled oil crisis ended? On the contrary, oil prices have skyrocketed thanks to the newest phase of the Covid-19 crisis thanks to a ‘scarcity premium.’

Around the world, supply chains are still reeling and energy supply has been unable to keep up with demand as it bounces back to pre-pandemic levels. China, India, and the European Union are now all facing a very serious energy crunch heading into a very grim winter. 

So now that oil companies are rolling in the dough will they increase production to help out the world’s energy supply squeeze? Don’t count on it. “Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp. confirmed this week that, for the most part, they’ll spend their windfall profits on share buybacks and dividends,” Bloomberg recently reported.

While capital expenditures will increase in 2022, the report continues, “the increases come off 2021’s exceptionally low base and within frameworks established before the recent surge in fossil-fuel prices.”

This is a huge change in behavior for the oil industry, which usually brings a “drill, baby, drill” mentality to even the smallest upticks in oil prices. The oil industry has been historically characterized by booms and busts as the oil sector reacts to high prices by flooding the market with oil, which then sinks those prices.

The oil industry then repents, curbs production, waits for oil prices to rise, and then starts the cycle all over again. Until now.

For the duration of the Covid-19 crisis, oil producers have shown uncharacteristic restraint and held tight to their pledged production cuts. And now that restraint will turn into a payoff for shareholders.

While this is bad news in the short term for countries suffering from an energy crunch, in the long run this move is good news for climate change mitigation.

Big Oil is more than aware that world leaders are getting more serious than ever about the clean energy transition, and the future of fossil fuels is far from certain. “We will not double down on fossil fuels,” Shell CEO Ben Van Beurden was quoted by Bloomberg. Supermajors might just stay the course on their production caps and focus on diversifying in the coming years.

OilPrice by Haley Zaremba, November 4, 2021

The Houston Ship Channel is home to petrochemical plants, power companies and heavy industries, all of which throw climate-harming emissions into the air.

In a process called “carbon capture and storage” (CCS), some industrial facilities capture this carbon dioxide before it leaves their plants, and then use it to develop products or store it underground.

Now Exxon Mobil has suggested turning the 50-mile-long channel into a CCS hub. The oil and gas giant is calling on industry and government to jointly raise $100 billion to create infrastructure to capture carbon dioxide at industrial plants, carry it away in pipelines and inject it deep under the floor of the Gulf of Mexico.

Joe Blommaert, President of Low Carbon Solutions at Exxon, says CCS is essential to meeting the goals of the Paris agreement while also meeting the growing energy needs of the world.

Exxon has raked in more than $20 billion annually in profits over the past decade, on average, and nearly $300 billion annually in revenues. Blommaert talked with The Associated Press about the $3 billion that Exxon plans to spend on the business through 2025, and how the project might take shape. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Q: Your vision for the Houston Ship Channel calls for a $100 billion investment from companies and government. That’s a lot of money. How do you envision it would be spent?

A: Obviously, the scale is unprecedented. When you look into the details, actually, it is many capture facilities and storage facilities, and actually this CCS is executed at scale already around the world. What is important in my mind is this collaboration of the whole industry, the whole of government and the whole of society. And it is actually addressing climate change, which technically is a very complicated issue. It needs all of the solutions, and it is not one or the other. And that’s why with the Houston Hub we were so pleased with the 10 companies willing to step forward to help make this a reality.

Q: How much is Exxon willing to invest?

A: We are, just like other companies, assessing those opportunities. We’re working through our project and definition, and we will certainly do our part. I will not quote a specific number. We are working through that, as you can imagine. But the key is that policy to attract public and private investment in supporting this is put in place. And that’s why we talk about the value of carbon, which is essential.

Q: Can you tell me what percentage of the Houston Ship Channel project costs Exxon would likely contribute?

A: I will not give you the percentage, it’s obviously too early. Actually a meeting is scheduled in the next few days to talk about how to get organized, do governance, and so on. And then each company is actually looking at its own capture project, if you will, and the specific details. So more to come on that.

Q: Was this plan created in response to investor concerns about climate change?

A: We started this CCS venture about three years ago and actually that is now included in my business. And so we brought that to a stage that we could start thinking about how to really bring that to scale.

This was actually already quite quite well progressed, culminating in the creation of a (carbon capture) business that is now 30 this year, and we already had a portfolio of ideas. It’s just the right time for us.

Q: If Exxon believes this is important, why not dramatically reduce oil and gas production and invest more in renewable energy?

A: I fully appreciate this perspective on the issue, and I would come back to what I said earlier in terms of meeting the goals of the Paris accord and meeting energy and product demands that modern life requires, particularly when you think about the growth of society, 2 billion more people by 2050.

That energy mix will change, but that will still require energy sources from fossil fuels. That’s why it is actually so important to have technologies like CCS so that you can meet the energy supplies that the world needs in a way that the emissions are being abated, and that you can do that at the lowest cost possible to society. And you can do that now.

We’re buying renewable power. We do that through our power purchase agreements. We believe our strength really comes to the forefront through the deployment of technologies like CCS, like hydrogen, like biofuels. And those are technologies that are being recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency as technologies that society needs to meet modern life requirements.

SeattleTimes by Cathy Bussewitz, November 2, 2021

Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say. 

This would be a welcome development for green energy advocates, net-zero agendas, and the planet if it weren’t for one simple fact: oil demand is rebounding from the pandemic-driven slump and will set a new average annual record as soon as next year.  

The energy transition and the various government plans for net-zero emissions have prompted analysts to forecast that peak oil demand would occur earlier than expected just a few years ago.

However, as current investment trends in oil and gas stand, global oil supply could peak sooner than global oil demand, opening a supply gap that would lead to increased volatility on the oil market, with spikes in prices, and, potentially, structurally higher oil prices by the middle of this decade and beyond.

Supply Could Peak Before Demand

“On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand,” Morgan Stanley’s research department wrote in a note this week carried by Reuters.  

“The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.

The problem with the world is that oil consumption – wishful thinking, investor pressure, and all – is not peaking. Nor will it peak until the end of this decade at the earliest, according to most estimates. 

OPEC expects global oil demand to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045, as per the cartel’s latest annual outlook. 

Some other analysts expect peak demand at some point in the late 2020s. 

Investment in new supply, however, is severely lagging global oil demand growth.

Demand is growing again after the 2020 COVID crisis and, contrary to some expectations from early 2020 that the world’s oil consumption would never return to pre-pandemic levels, demand is currently just a few months away from hitting and exceeding those levels. 

Supply Gap Is Looming In Just A Few Years

Supply, on the other hand, looks constrained beyond the OPEC+ deal horizon. 

New investment last year slumped to a decade-and-a-half low. Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year. 

Investment is not expected to materially pick up this year, either, despite $80 oil. That’s because supermajors stick to capital discipline and pledge net-zero emission targets, part of which some of them plan to reach by curbing investment and developments in non-core little-profitable new oil projects. 

U.S. shale, for its part, is not rushing this time to “drill themselves into oblivion,” as Harold Hamm said in 2017, as American producers look to finally reward shareholders after years of plowing cash flows into drilling and chasing production growth. 

Considering that oil demand will still grow, at least for a few more years, underinvestment in new supply would be a major problem in the medium and long term. 

Despite the energy transition, demand will not just vanish, and new supply will be needed for years to come to replace declining production and reserves. 

The oil industry will need massive investments over the next 25 years in order to meet demand, according to OPEC. The industry will need cumulative long-term upstream, midstream, and downstream oil-related investments of $11.8 trillion by 2045, OPEC says.

Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at France’s TotalEnergies, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum this month that oil prices would “rocket to the roof” by 2030 if the industry were to stop investments in new supply, as some scenarios for net-zero by 2050 suggest. “If we stop investing in 2020, we leave all these resources in the ground … and then the price will rocket to the roof. And even in developed countries, it will be a big issue,” Pouyanné said. 

$100 Oil Is No Longer An Outrageous Prediction 

A triple-digit oil price is no longer an outrageous prediction as it would have been in early 2020.  

Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, expects oil to hit $100 by September 2022, or even earlier if this winter is much colder than expected. 

Demand is coming back, while we have seen severe underinvestment in supply the last 18 months, Blanch told Bloomberg at the end of September.  

 “The underinvestment problem cannot be solved easily, and at the same time we have surging demand,” he said. 

“We are moving into a straightjacket for energy, we don’t want to use coal, we want to use less and less gas, we want to move away from oil,” Blanch told Bloomberg. 

While oil is unlikely to sit at triple digits for a sustained period of time, underinvestment has become “a multi-year problem” for the industry, Blanch noted. 

Even if oil doesn’t stay at $100 a barrel, a supply crunch down the road would nevertheless move the floor under oil prices higher and lead to unsustainable price spikes.

As much as climate activists want a stop to investment in new supply, the industry and the world cannot afford it because oil demand continues to grow.

Oilprice by Tsvetana Paraskova, November 1, 2021

One of South America’s poorest countries, Guyana, became a major holder of oil and gas reserves in 2015 when ExxonMobil found oil in its waters in what turned out to be a block with resources estimated at 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels and counting. 

Now Guyana wants to capitalize on the large oil and gas discoveries over the past half-decade to build up an economy powered by its own energy resources. 

The South American nation became a crude oil exporter in early 2020, thanks to Exxon’s huge discoveries offshore Guyana. Over the past two years, the U.S. supermajor and Hess Corp, its partner in the prolific Stabroek Block, have made a dozen more discoveries, while the Liza Phase 1 project is very profitable for the oil corporations and for Guyana. 

Liza Phase 1 and 2 developments break even at around $35 a barrel and $25 per barrel Brent, respectively, Hess says. Liza Phase 2 start-up is expected in the middle of 2022 via a floating, production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) designed to produce up to 220,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd). 

Guyana is looking beyond the oil export revenues from the Exxon-operated projects off its shores. It plans to have a natural gas pipeline built from the Liza 1 and Liza 2 developments to the shore for a gas-to-energy project to generate electricity and feed industries as it aims to capitalize on the huge oil and gas resources to develop its economy. 

This summer, the government of Guyana said it was looking for partners to invest in a $900-million gas-to-energy project for a natural gas pipeline from the Liza developments to the shore. The planned 225-kilometer (140 miles) pipeline from the Liza area to the Wales Development Zone (WDZ) is expected to feed a gas processing plant and a natural gas liquids (NGL) facility, capable of producing at least 4,000 barrels per day, including the fractionation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). A power plant with a total capacity to generate 300 megawatts (MW) of electricity and an industrial park that could use gas, steam and/or electricity are also part of the gas-to-energy project. 

ExxonMobil’s affiliate Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Limited (EEPGL) has guaranteed the government that a minimum of 50 million standard cubic feet of gas per day will be transported from the Liza projects via the pipeline by 2024. 

The power plant construction is slated to begin next year, while financing is still being lined up, Peter Ramsaroop, CEO at Guyana’s government agency GoInvest, told Bloomberg in an interview this week. 

“Guyana must have the gas and hydropower to be able to bring a competitive economy to the point where we can depend on our own energy to deliver our goods and services,” Ramsaroop told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the Dubai Expo. 

During the same event, Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali told potential investors: 

“Guyana needs to convert its abundant resources. We need you. We welcome you, and we urge you to remember the name Guyana and to keep the name Guyana in your plans for growth and development, both in country and by businesses and sectors.”

“We will continue to pursue oil production offshore, but onshore we will definitely intensify the decarbonisation of the economy,” Ali added. 

Exxon, for its part, “expects to make significant progress over the next few years in cooperation with the Government of Guyana to advance a gas-to-energy project,” the supermajor told Bloomberg in a statement. 

Guyana’s government bets on the project, which it expects to come on stream by late 2024, to more than halve its electricity costs, seen by the private sector as prohibitive to investment in the country, the South American nation says. 

The government expects the gas-to-energy project to revolutionize and significantly improve the ease of doing business in Guyana, it said in July. 

The gas from the recent massive oil discoveries could transform Guyana’s economic fortunes forever.

OilPrice by Tsvetana Paraskova, October 28, 2021