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Driving Market Variables

A tank terminal can have various functions for its clients. A tank terminal can be needed for logistical purposes, as a trading platform and for strategic storage purposes. In ARA they are likely to have a combination of these functions.

Depending on market circumstances a terminal that functions excellent in certain high value segments can ask premium storage rates and will find enough demand to rent out its tank capacity.

However, markets change and this can alter clients’ requirements and shift profit potential and demand between market segments. To identify which and how market variables influence commercial circumstances for tank terminals, storage players need to be in sync with their environment.

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7. Gas Oil in Backwardation

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Investment Dynamics Per Hub

In the world, there are considered to be four major oil trading hubs: ARA, Houston, Singapore, Fujairah. These four port areas have their own different identity and their own local trading dynamics. In this high level research, we will compare investment intensity in these locations. For comparison purposes in ARA, we have split ARA in only Rotterdam and Antwerp.

In these 5 ports combined there are 146 terminal companies active. Most of the companies are situated in Houston (53), followed by Rotterdam (31), Antwerp (24), Singapore (21) and Fujairah (17). Looking at the capacity, these ports sum up to 76.35Mcbm. Most capacity is available in Houston (25Mcbm), followed by Rotterdam (19Mcbm), Singapore (15.28Mcbm), Fujairah (9.35Mcbm) and Antwerp (7.65Mcbm).

When we divided total storage capacity with the number of terminals we can calculate the average capacity per terminal. Biggest average tank size is in Singapore (0.73Mcbm), followed by Rotterdam (0.62Mcbm), Fujairah (0.55Mcbm), Houston (0.47Mcbm) and Antwerp (0.32Mcbm).

This calculation says something about the local storage footprint and the port’s specialty. For instance, Singapore is an Asian bunker hub which facilitates fuel oil storage. There are a number of big underground caverns there. Antwerp is focused on specialty chemical storage which need smaller tank sizes and lower average storage capacity per terminal.

For these five port areas, it is believed that around 22 expansions projects (existing greenfield, brownfield and planned additions) will add almost 8Mcbm to current capacity. Fujairah has 7 projects, followed by Houston (6), Antwerp (5), Singapore (3) and Rotterdam. Looking at the growth per capacity, port that shows the largest storage additions is Fujairah (29%), Antwerp (11%), Houston (9%), Rotterdam (7%) and Singapore (5%).

The conclusion of these statistics is that the major oil trading hubs have different strengths, serve a different purpose and show their own investment dynamics. Insights Global has presence at all these ports. We have the statistics and local knowledge to help investment companies value storage assets they would like to include in their investment portfolio.

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Relation barge flows & ARA stocks

Physical and futures oil trading companies struggle in getting a holistic view on the supply and demand balance of Northwest European oil markets. Changes in the S&D balance influence inventory levels and ultimately oil price movements. This incomplete picture results in sub-optimal market timing and more risks.

The Rhine Flow Service is the missing link in the ARA S&D puzzle as it captures oil products barge movements up and down the Rhine. Backtesting of Rhine Flow Service data in relation with ARA oil stock levels shows that there is a significant correlation between ARA stock levels and Rhine barge movements.

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Two-days Oil Academy

Increase Your Value with More Knowledge

Numbers from EY (2015) show that in the Netherlands around 16.000 people were active in the oil and gas industry. In the same year in the United States some 1.5 million people were employed in this sector. The service providing companies are not even taken into account. It is a massive industry!

It is not only big in size but also in complexity. A lot of companies that we meet only partly understand the logistical oil and gas chain in which they are active. They lack the knowledge to oversee the entire supply chain. Specifically these other parts of the value chain have a direct impact on their business.

Several companies have followed our two-days Oil Academy. After these days they are capable in understanding the functions of the oil and gas value chain. They understand better how the different market players work and how market fundamentals interact. More than 200 participants preceded you and rated this course with an 8!

For more information, request our Oil Academy brochure by registering in below’s form.

Investment dynamics vary per major trading hub

In the world, there are considered to be four major oil trading hubs: ARA, Singapore, Fujairah. These four port areas have their own different identity and their own local trading dynamics. In this high level research, we will compare investment intensity in these locations. For comparison purposes in ARA, we have split ARA in only Rotterdam and Antwerp.

In these 5 ports combined there are 146 terminal companies active. Most of the companies are situated in Houston (53), followed by Rotterdam (31), Antwerp (24), Singapore (21) and Fujairah (17). Looking at the capacity, these ports sum up to 76.35Mcbm. Most capacity is available in Houston (25Mcbm), followed by Rotterdam (19Mcbm), Singapore (15.28Mcbm), Fujairah (9.35Mcbm) and Antwerp (7.65Mcbm).

When we divided total storage capacity with the number of terminals we can calculate the average capacity per terminal. Biggest average tank size is in Singapore (0.73Mcbm), followed by Rotterdam (0.62Mcbm), Fujairah (0.55Mcbm), Houston (0.47Mcbm) and Antwerp (0.32Mcbm).

This calculation says something about the local storage footprint and the port’s specialty. For instance, Singapore is an Asian bunker hub which facilitates fuel oil storage. There are a number of big underground caverns there. Antwerp is focused on specialty chemical storage which need smaller tank sizes and lower average storage capacity per terminal.

For these five port areas, it is believed that around 22 expansions projects (existing greenfield, brownfield and planned additions) will add almost 8kcbm to current capacity. Fujairah has 7 projects, followed by Houston (6), Antwerp (5), Singapore (3) and Rotterdam. Looking at the growth per capacity, port that shows the largest storage additions is Fujairah (29%), Antwerp (11%), Houston (9%), Rotterdam (7%) and Singapore (5%).

The conclusion of these statistics is that the major oil trading hubs have different strengths, serve a different purpose and show their own investment dynamics. Insights Global has presence at all these ports. We have the statistics and local knowledge to help investment companies value storage assets they would like to include in their investment portfolio.

Jacob van den Berge, M&S manager Insights Global

ARA independent product stocks continue to fall

London, 28 February (Argus) — Oil product stocks held in independent storage tanks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub fell for the third consecutive week to nine-week lows.

Inventories of all products fell. Naphtha stocks recorded the largest reduction in percentage terms, decreasing to 219,000t. The Ablianideparted the region for Venezuela, as part of the country’s efforts to replace naphtha volumes lost to US sanctions. Barge flows to inland end users fell week on week amid rising freight rates on the Rhine. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from France, Russia and Spain.

Fuel oil inventories fell to 911,000t and economics to ship European product to the Asia-Pacific region remained viable, according to data from consultancy PJK. A single Suezmax tanker departed the area for Singapore, but the very large crude carriers (VLCCs) Nave Electron and VL Prime are awaiting loading in Rotterdam.

Jet fuel stocks fell to 612,000t. The Zefyros arrived in Rotterdam from the Mideast Gulf on 26 February and is due to offload a 35,000t cargo today. A single tanker departed for the UK. Jet kerosene continues to arrive in northwest Europe from east of Suez, but tends to discharge in the UK and France.

Gasoline inventories fell to 1.1mn t, amid rising outflows to the US Atlantic coast. Stored volumes have been falling steadily since reaching 11-month highs in January. Tankers departed the ARA area for China, Latin America, Singapore, the US and west Africa. Tankers arrived from France, the Mediterranean, Norway and Sweden.

Gasoil inventories fell to 2.4mn t. Demand from inland fell slightly week on week, again affected by rising Rhine freight rates. Tankers arrived from Poland and Russia, and departed for the Mediterranean and west Africa. Outflows were supported by ample stored volumes. Inventories rose by around 600,000t between mid-December and mid-February to 2.5mn t but have fallen over the last two weeks.

Reporter: Thomas Warner