Oil pipeline capacity to spare Canadian exports from looming rail dispute

 A looming labor dispute at Canada’s two main railroads is unlikely to significantly reduce oil exports to the United States due to excess capacity on Trans Mountain and other pipelines, people close to the matter said.

North American shippers such as fertilizer supplier Nutrien (NTR.TO), opens new tab and U.S. logistics firm C.H. Robinson (CHRW.O), opens new tab are bracing for simultaneous stoppages at the Canadian operations of Canadian National Railway or CN (CNR.TO), opens new tab and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO), opens new tab (CPKC) that could cost the nation’s economy billions of dollars.

CN said last week it was putting in place an embargo on any new reservations for movement of hazardous materials, security-sensitive cargoes or refrigerated containers originating in Canada, starting on Thursday. CPKC said that it had begun to halt any new shipments of hazardous chemicals or dangerous goods.

A strike or lockout could start on Thursday.

But oil exports may be largely unscathed. U.S. rail imports of Canadian crude have fallen sharply in recent years, averaging around 55,000 barrels per day in May, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed, the lowest since the pandemic price crash in 2020. The U.S. imports about 4.2 million bpd from Canada, mostly by pipeline.

Anybody receiving crude by rail right now is figuring out what alternatives they have, whether it’s an alternative grade that can be substituted on the pipeline, or if a buyer is willing to take something else,” said Elliot Apland at MarbleRock Advisors, which helps negotiate rail supply-chain contracts.

Prices of Western Canadian Select crude typically fall during export logjams. However, Trans Mountain’s expansion in May and available capacity on other pipes should limit deep discounting, industry experts and analysts said.

Crude-by-rail is not as essential to the Canadian market as it was prior to the Trans Mountain expansion,” said Jeremy Irwin, a senior oil markets analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects.

Trans Mountain’s expansion nearly tripled the flow of crude from landlocked Alberta to the Pacific coast, to 890,000 bpd.

Maintenance at U.S. Midwest refineries, which buy and process Canadian crude, will also free pipeline space for additional barrels, Irwin added.

WCS for September delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, settled on Friday at $12.25 a barrel below U.S. West Texas intermediate crude, according to brokerage CalRock, compared to an average $18.65 discount in 2023. The relatively small discount indicates little market concern about moving Canadian crude.

“We’re closely monitoring the situation and putting plans in place to mitigate any impacts if a strike or lockout were to happen,” a spokesperson at producer Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO), opens new tab said.

ConocoPhillips (COP.N), opens new tab Canada said it ships refined product on CPKC and other rail carriers, but has flexibility to manage a sustained strike. The company does not expect any impact to its Surmont oil-sands production.

REFINED PRODUCTS

Canadian propane relies mainly on rail to reach domestic and export markets. Any stoppage could significantly reduce deliveries for fuel and chemical manufacturing.

AltaGas’ (ALA.TO), opens new tab Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal in British Columbia has stocked up on propane, Energy Aspects’ Irwin noted.

Some companies that use generators for electricity on job sites have been stockpiling diesel, Irwin said, adding that a rail stoppage longer than two weeks could strand some diesel at Alberta refineries.

Those refineries include Imperial Oil’s (IMO.TO), opens new tab Strathcona, Suncor Energy’s (SU.TO), opens new tab Edmonton, Shell’s (SHEL.L), opens new tab Scotford Complex, North West Redwater’s Sturgeon refinery and Cenovus’ Lloydminster refinery.

Canada’s gasoline markets tend to be localized and production stays in the region. Many major gasoline markets are connected directly to refineries by pipelines, while railways and trucks also distribute gasoline in other regions.

“Everyone is trying to get the inventories to a point where they could free rail logistics for 14 days and still be OK, said a senior industry executive who declined to be identified.

By Reuters, Arathy Somasekhar / August 19, 2024

Nigeria Is Turning Into an Oil Market Juggernaut

Welcome to our guide to the energy and commodities markets powering the global economy. Today, reporters Alex Longley and Bill Lehane examine the influence that Nigeria’s new refinery will have on oil supplies.

In a finely balanced oil market, Nigeria has suddenly reemerged as a key player.

During the past few weeks, actions by the country’s massive Dangote refinery have moved prices, with purchases of US barrels initially boosting the crude futures curve before a decision to sell them sent oil tumbling.

Once fully operational, the plant outside Lagos will be able to process 650,000 barrels a day, rivaling the largest sites in the US and more than 50% larger than Europe’s biggest refinery.

A look at International Energy Agency data this week shows why that’s so important.

Even if OPEC+ cancels planned supply hikes, there will be a surplus of about 860,000 barrels a day next year. The group currently plans to add 540,000 barrels a day next quarter.

Refinery ramp-ups are complicated, and there’s already been at least one delay. But once the site starts churning out gasoline, it will transform fuel markets in the region and upend long-established trade flows, particularly in Europe, where Nigeria currently purchases much of its supplies.

Aliko Dangote, the billionaire behind the plant, said last month the plan is for it to start producing the fuel in August, though others are doubtful.

“The refinery’s gasoline is unlikely to hit the market until at least September,” consultant FGE wrote this month, citing issues with some of the plant’s units.

Then there’s the question of feedstock.

The facility was built on a dream of Nigeria consuming its own crude. That’s why there was an uproar when Dangote started buying US supplies.

Recently, the country announced plans for its refiners to pay for oil in local currency and to consume as many as 445,000 barrels a day of domestic product. Still, it’s unclear how the latter will happen.

But if it does, that will mean less crude for current buyers, notably in Europe.

It also means that in an oil market focused on war, economic slowdowns and output curbs, Nigeria will be a surprisingly hot topic among traders in coming months.

Small modular reactors are a popular topic in the nuclear-energy world, with more than 80 designs in development. For years, the industry has presented the technology — which typically has an output capacity of less than 300 megawatts — as a tonic for the high costs and schedule overruns associated with large reactors. Yet with construction budgets spiking and only two modern SMRs operating globally, questions about their viability persist, BloombergNEF says.

By: Bloomberg, Alex Longley and Bill Lehane / 15 August 2024 

Saudi Aramco Seeks More China Deals in Oil to Chemicals Push

Saudi Aramco is looking to invest in more chemical plants in China this year and next, adding to deals it’s already clinched in the country to secure long-term buyers for its crude.    

The world’s largest crude exporting company is targeting additional facilities that can turn oil into chemicals, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said. Aramco sees demand for goods such as plastics outlasting the growth in consumption for gasoline and diesel amid the energy transition.

“We are looking currently at a number of investments in China that will be announced in due course this year and next year,” Nasser said on an earning call Tuesday. He also mentioned South Korea and India as potential investment destinations. 

Aramco is already in talks to buy a 10% stake in China’s Hengli Petrochemical Ltd. and is seeking similar deals with two other Chinese companies. It closed a separate $3.4 billion deal for a stake in Rongsheng Petrochemical Co. last year.

The Saudi state-run company aims to eventually turn about 4 million barrels a day of crude into chemicals, from about 2 million currently, Nasser said. It’s looking to upgrade existing facilities in Saudi Arabia to be able to process more oil into petrochemicals, he said. 

On Wednesday, Aramco agreed to boost its stake in Saudi Arabia-based Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co. with a $702 million deal.

Energy Transition

Nasser pointed to China’s push into energy transition technologies like solar panels and batteries that use more plastics and other products derived from oil as factors attracting investment. 

“Our strategic drive to convert liquid into chemicals remains unchanged,” Chief Financial Officer Ziad Al-Murshed said on the same call Tuesday. “Our highest priority is to do this in China for two reasons. One is it is the biggest market and, two, it is where the liquid-to-chemical expansions are happening.”

A big part of that push involves freeing up for exports as much as 1 million barrels a day of crude that it uses domestically for electricity generation. Aramco wants to ramp up gas production by 60% by the end of the decade, in part, for use in power plants in place of oil.

The company is also looking to boost trading in liquefied natural gas by tapping into supply deals globally and buying more stakes in export terminals outside Saudi Arabia, Nasser said. 

Aramco last month signed an initial agreement for a stake in Sempra’s Texas LNG export plant in a deal that would include fuel shipments from the project. It has also agreed a 20-year non-binding contract to take 1.2 million tons per year of the liquefied fuel from NextDecade Corp.’s planned project in Texas.

By: Bloomberg , Anthony Di Paola / Thursday, August 08, 2024

How Crude Oil-to-Chemicals Technologies are Reshaping the Global Oil Market

The global chemicals market has been growing rapidly, with demand for chemicals expected to rise by 3-3.5% in the medium term compared to 1-1.5% for crude oil.

The increase in demand for olefins and aromatics, along with a long-term expected flattening of gasoline and kerosene demand, is causing refiners globally to serve the demand for petrochemicals by accelerating refining and petrochemical units’ integration. Fluctuating oil prices have forced them to increase focus on maximizing margins, and improve profitability per barrel.

The relevance of crude oil to chemicals (COTC) technologies has grown, given how they turn low value oil into high value chemicals in existing refineries.

The technology promises to maximize intermediate petrochemical output to a 60-80% yield range from a barrel of crude oil. This is much higher than the 10% yield from a non-integrated conventional refinery and a 15-25% yield range in integrated petrochemical units.

The strategies predominantly adopted in COTC plants include:

  1. Direct processing of crude oil in steam cracking
  2. Integrated hydro-processing/de-asphalting and steam cracking
  3. Processing of middle distillates and residues using hydrocracking technology

Such strategic shifts have been found to increase margins, while also raising integration, complexity, and output volumes at a disruptive scale. It is estimated that two large-scale 200,000 barrel-per-day COTC complexes can boost the annual capacity additions of ethylene and propylene to 6.4 MMT and 4.4 MMT. This can also help reduce carbon footprint.

The major players in COTC technology

COTC continues to garner the attention of integrated refineries and chemicals producers in Asia Pacific, China, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. However, despite its growing popularity, only a few well-equipped integrated oil companies globally are looking to deploy this technology to make inroads in the petrochemical industry. These include some large companies in the U.S., Middle East and China.

Proximity to demand centers in India, Africa, and China is making the Middle East extremely favorable for COTC investments.

Saudi Aramco: The leading oil major is developing two catalytic technologies — thermocracking and catalytic conversion technology — that promise yields of around 70% of chemicals from the barrel. It is also working strategically with Tsinghua University in Beijing to develop a pilot, single stage catalytic conversion process.


Sinopec : The Chinese company recently made a breakthrough in single step crude-to-chemicals process.
Hengli Petrochemical: In 2019, the company’s complex in Dalian, China, was one of the first mega-projects with COTC technologiesto come online.
Shell: Shell Catalysts & Technologies has increasingly focused on deploying COTC technologies and is leveraging refinery petrochemical integration.
ExxonMobil: The oil and gas giant, with major operations in the U.S. and Singapore, has developed a technology to produce very light crude and feed directly to steam cracker to produce smaller and lighter hydrocarbons.
Reliance Industries: A global-scale $9.3 billion investment in COTC at its Jamnagar complex in India has been planned. Saudi Aramco has a 20% stake in Reliance’s projects.
Total: The French oil major is a global contender for COTC.

The major contractors that have implemented COTC technologies for refiners

Honeywell UOP and Axens have been leaders in driving technology improvements in this space.
Chevron Lummus Global has been a major technology partner for Saudi Aramco as well as McDermott, accelerating commercialization of Aramco’s proprietary thermal crude to chemicals technology.
Siluria Technologies is another major COTC provider that has partnered with Saudi Aramco to jointly develop COTC and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) technologies to produce polyolefins.
McDermott, a major EPC contractor, has implemented more than 100 hydroprocessing plant designs globally through its joint venture with Chevron Lummus.

The risks of adopting COTC technology

Industry-wide disruption due to COVID-19 has caused Saudi Aramco and SABIC to conserve cash flow and budgets and reassess plans for the $20 billion COTC project at Yanbu. They are now considering an integration of their existing facilities with a world-scale mixed feed steam cracker and downstream olefin derivative units.
While China sees a big demand for COTC in the form of two large projects — Hengli Petrochemicals (42% conversion per barrel of oil) and Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical (COTC phase 1, achieved 45% conversion per barrel of oil), and higher adoption, the risk of oversupply with more investments might add further pressure on the margins of para-xylene in the aromatics market of the Asia Pacific.

The outlook

By expanding the usage of crude oil in the chemical industry, COTC is expected to change and possibly disrupt the market landscape by 2025-2030. National and independent oil companies are expected to invest further in this segment as COTC adoption grows. Existing petrochemical producers may not be able to match the scale and scope of COTC units but can collaborate with regional players or partner with technology providers to independently pursue COTC.

Thus, we see that when there have been challenges of overcapacity, the threat from peak oil demand, the adoption of COTC could serve as a much-needed lifeline for sustenance in the future.

By: gep / 08/07/2024

Gunvor Teams up with VARO to Build Sustainable Aviation Fuel Facility in Rotterdam

 Global energy trader Gunvor Group on Thursday said it will join VARO Energy to build a large scale sustainable aviation fuel manufacturing facility at the Gunvor Energy Rotterdam site through a proposed joint venture.


Under the agreement, VARO and Gunvor will equally share the costs and risks to develop the plant until the final investment decision. Following a joint final investment decision and regulatory approvals, they will form a project company equally owned by both, Gunvor said.

Since VARO’s intial announcement on the project in September last year, there has been significant progress and the Front-End Engineering Design phase is expected to be completed in the last quarter this year, the energy trader said.

The manufacturing facility in Rotterdam, with capacity of 350 kt per annum, aims to produce enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet up to 7% of the European Union’s requirement by 2030, Gunvor said.

The facility is designed to process various feedstocks and produce either sustainable aviation fuel or hydrotreated vegetable oil, allowing flexibility based on market conditions and regulatory requirements, it said.

Located at Gunvor Energy Rotterdam’s brownfield site, the facility will benefit from existing infrastructure, including transport, pipelines, utilities, port facilities, and proximity to key Northern European markets, Gunvor said.

Gunvor operates a 75,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery at Rotterdam.

By: Reuters / August 02, 2024

Enterprise Expanding Houston Ship Channel Export Facility

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) today announced that it is moving forward with a key expansion project along the Houston Ship Channel in response to continued strong customer demand for natural gas liquids export capacity. At the Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (“EHT”), the company is adding refrigeration capacity that will increase propane and butane export capabilities by approximately 300,000 barrels per day (“BPD”). In addition to providing incremental capacity for liquefied petroleum gas (“LPG”), the expansion will increase instantaneous loading rates for propane and butane, while making additional capacity available for propylene exports. The expanded service is expected to begin by the end of 2026.

The need for increased LPG capacity at EHT is being driven by the success Enterprise has had in contracting the company’s flexible product capacity at its Neches River Terminal (“NRT”) being developed in Orange County, Texas, adjacent to the company’s Beaumont East refined products terminal. Phase 1 of the NRT buildout includes the addition of a new loading dock, an ethane refrigeration train with a nameplate capacity of 120,000 BPD, and a 900,000-barrel refrigerated tank that will accommodate loading rates up to 45,000 barrels per hour. Phase 1 is expected to begin service in the second half of 2025.

Phase 2 includes a second refrigeration train that will allow Enterprise to load up to 180,000 BPD of ethane, 360,000 BPD of propane, or a combination of the two. The second phase is expected to begin service in the first half of 2026.

Growth capital associated with the EHT and NRT projects fits within the company’s existing forecasted growth capital expenditure ranges for 2024-2026.

A.J. “Jim” Teague, co-chief executive officer for Enterprise’s general partner, said, “Enterprise has received significant interest in ethane and LPG exports systemwide. Additional interest in expanded capacity reflects continued demand for U.S. hydrocarbons and Enterprise’s ability to quickly and economically expand our footprint to meet those needs.”

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. is one of the largest publicly traded partnerships and a leading North American provider of midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, NGLs, crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals. Services include: natural gas gathering, treating, processing, transportation and storage; NGL transportation, fractionation, storage and marine terminals; crude oil gathering, transportation, storage and marine terminals; petrochemical and refined products production, transportation, storage, and marine terminals and related services; and a marine transportation business that operates on key U.S. inland and intracoastal waterway systems. The partnership’s assets include more than 50,000 miles of pipelines; over 300 million barrels of storage capacity for NGLs, crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals; and 14 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. Please visit www.enterpriseproducts.com for more information.

This press release includes “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included herein that address activities, events, developments or transactions that Enterprise and its general partner expect, believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations, including required approvals by regulatory agencies, the possibility that the anticipated benefits from such activities, events, developments or transactions cannot be fully realized, the possibility that costs or difficulties related thereto will be greater than expected, the impact of competition, and other risk factors included in Enterprise’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates. Except as required by law, Enterprise does not intend to update or revise its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

by Business Wire / Jul 30, 2024

Saudi Aramco CEO calls energy transition strategy a failure

Pointing to the still paltry share of renewable energy in global supply, the head of Saudi Aramco described the current energy transition strategy as a misguided failure on Monday.

“In the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts,” Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Amin Nasser said at the CERAWeek conference in Houston.

Fossil fuels accounted for 82 percent of global consumption last year, according to a report from consultancy KPMG cited by Nasser, who noted that the International Energy Agency has said oil demand could hit a record this year.

“This is hardly the future picture some have been painting,” Nasser said.

“All of this strengthens the view that big oil and gas is unlikely for some time to come out, let alone in 2050,” added Nasser, alluding to a medium-term target that has been seen as a potential phaseout date for crude.

Joining Nasser in speaking skeptically of an imminent energy revolution was ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods, who said “we’re not on the path” to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

“One of the challenges here is that while society wants to see emissions reduced, nobody wants to pay for it,” Woods said.

Nasser called for policies more in tune with the “real world.”

While alternative energy can reduce emissions, “when the world does focus on reducing emission from hydrocarbons, it achieves much better results,” Nasser said.

Last year’s COP28 conference included a call for a transition away from fossil fuels.

But Nasser said the world should “abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas, and instead invest in them adequately reflecting realistic demand assumptions.”

By: msn, Agence France-Presse / 31 Julio 2024

Petrochemicals are Big Oil’s Next Big Profit Hedge

The ongoing electrification drive and the EV revolution have elicited dire forecasts about the imminent demise of the nearly two-century old oil & gas industry.

Last year, Bloomberg predicted that global demand for road fuel will peak in 2027 at an all-time high of 49 million barrels per day before entering terminal decline. Bloomberg says that rapid adoption of electric vehicles, shared mobility and ever-improving fuel efficiency are the biggest bear catalysts for oil, with EVs expected to displace a staggering 20 million barrels per day in oil demand by 2040, or 10x the current estimate.
 

And, the Chinese EV sector is expected to play a big part in disrupting the global fossil fuel industry. China’s oil market is closely watched by energy experts not only due to its sheer size but also because of the ongoing EV revolution in the Middle Kingdom. According to Lu Ruquan, president of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp.’s Economics & Technology Research Institute, EVs will displace more than 20 million metric tons of crude demand this year, good for 10% of the country’s gasoline and diesel consumption.

At a time when internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales continue to decline, retail sales of new-energy cars (NEV) in China, including electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, rose 28.6% to 856,000 units in June from a year earlier, thanks to continued high demand for NEVs with by government subsidies, tax breaks and steep discounts helping bring buyers back into showrooms after a sluggish start to the year.

Not surprisingly, Big Oil companies are betting the farm on another pivotal energy sector: petrochemicals. Petrochemicals, which go into plastics, polyester and many other cheap and lightweight commodities that underpin modern life, could help oil companies stay afloat long after demand for transport fuels has peaked. As we have reported before, among the major energy agencies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) tends to be the most pessimistic about the long-term oil demand outlook.

Over the medium-and long-term, only the IEA sees global oil demand peaking before 2030, even in its most optimistic forecast (high growth). However, the IEA says an oil demand peak doesn’t necessarily mean a rapid plunge in fossil fuel consumption is imminent, adding that  it will probably be followed by “an undulating plateau lasting for many years.” The Paris-based energy watchdog has predicted that oil demand will grow to 105.45mn barrels per day in 2030, from 102.24mn bpd last year, with 2.8mn bpd–more than 85% of the overall increase in demand–coming from petrochemicals.

A 2023 review of the major oil and gas and chemicals companies found that over the next three years, Exxon Mobil Corp.(NYSE:XOM) plans to invest over $20 billion in expanding plastic production; CPChem will spend $14.5 billion andDow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) plans to invest USD 10 billion.

A lot of those petrodollars are flowing into the Chinese market. According to Ciarán Healy, oil market analyst at the IEA, ~6.7mn bpd, or 6.5 per cent of all global oil use, currently goes to supply China with petrochemicals. The International Energy Agency has reported that 90% of China’s increased oil demand from 2021 to 2024 comes from chemical feedstocks like LPG, ethane, and naphtha. IEA notes that between 2019 and 2024, additional Chinese production capacity for ethylene and propylene will exceed the combined current capacities of Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Between 2018 and 2023, China’s output of synthetic fibers alone rose by 21 million metric tons–enough to spin more than 100 billion T-shirts a year. A new breed of private refiners such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical has emerged in China whereby they are spending billions of dollars building plants specializing in chemicals, rather than gasoline and diesel.

Ironically, petrochemicals are crucial for the green energy transition, with EVs typically using more thermoplastics, foams, fibers and rubber pads than ICE vehicles. Indeed, US chemical practice leader at Deloitte David Yankovitz has told the Financial Times that EV makers are substituting plastic resins for metal parts to make lighter cars. Yankovitz says that roughly three-quarters of all emissions-reduction technologies require chemicals, most of which are oil-derived. China has met much of that demand through domestic processing of imported crude. But the US shale oil boom has also formed a mutually reinforcing “symbiosis” with growing Chinese demand for petrochemicals. According to ICIS data, between 2019 and 2023, the U.S. was the only major producer to boost its polymer exports into China,

Exxon is currently building a petrochemical complex in southern China’s Guangdong province, as well as expanding its own chemical production at existing facilities on the US Gulf Coast. According to Exxon, the chemical complex will produce performance polymers used in packaging, automotive, agricultural, and consumer products for hygiene and personal care.

“Demand for performance polymers will continue to increase in China, and we’re well positioned to meet the needs of that growing market,” “We look forward to progressing this exciting project as we work to build a competitive growth platform in Dayawan,” said Karen McKee, president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company, at the unveiling of the project in 2021.

Meanwhile, last year, Saudi Aramco acquired a 10% stake in Shenzhen-listed Rongsheng Petrochemical for $3.6bn, and has entered talks to buy a stake in Hengli Petrochemical, a top Chinese producer of chemicals for plastics. Last year, Aramco-owned S-Oilbroke ground on a $7bn petrochemical factory in South Korea.

By: Oilprice..com, Alex Kimani / July 31, 2024 

Oil Market Nears Breakout Point

Crude oil prices have been tightly range-bound for about a year now, with bearish and bullish factors largely balancing each other out. But one Wall Street major believes the market is nearing a breakout point. The only question is whether the breakout will be a bearish or a bullish one.

In a recent note, Bank of America analysts referred to the current situation in crude oil as a Bermuda Triangle because of the region’s notoriety as a sort of black hole where vessels and aircraft disappear without a trace. In the case of oil, the disappearance could be that of demand worries about China or expectations of extended production cuts by OPEC+, Investing.com wrote.

The BofA analysis is based on technical indicators that suggest oil has been experiencing growing pressure, likening the past year or so in oil trade to a tightly wound spring. Sooner or later, the spring would be released, and per BofA, that moment is near.

Speaking practically rather than technically, the chances of OPEC+ rolling back their production cuts are not exactly great. The group has repeatedly made it clear that it would only do that if prices move much higher than they are now. Right now, prices are sinking because the war premium from the Middle East conflict is shrinking while the bearish demand attitude about China is getting reinforced by economic data. Earlier today, Brent crude sank below $80 per barrel.

Bank of America’s analysts seem to be leaning towards a bearish breakout, by the way. In fact, they expect oil prices to dive all the way to the $60s by the end of the year, meaning that negative expectations would trump any positive developments. This suggests that the focus on China will likely remain strong, with other fundamental factors taking the backseat, such as the state of world oil reserves.

Rystad Energy recently reported that the world’s recoverable reserves were lower than official reports showed, which should have sounded a bullish note for oil but did not because of the more abstract nature of total reserves as opposed to everyday output and demand trends. The energy research outlet calculated the total at 1.5 trillion barrels, which was down by some 52 billion barrels from last year’s calculations. Rystad attributed the decline to a year’s worth of production since 2023 and downward adjustments of resources.

Based on that total, Rystad forecast that oil production could peak at around $120 million barrels daily in 2035 and then decline to 85 million barrels daily by 2050. Yet that was in a “high case” scenario seeking oil demand as strong as it is now—which is not the scenario Rystad itself likes best. The company would much prefer a scenario where the electrification of transport reduces oil demand—because the available reserves are insufficient to support much higher demand.

Yet all these are long-term predictions, and these are notoriously inaccurate. In the short term, oil prices will most likely remain stuck between the rock of Chinese demand—meaning Chinese economic indicators—and the hard place of the Middle Eastern conflict. The sideshow is OPEC and its production cuts, which are probably safe to say are going nowhere until Brent crude moves closer to $90 or even tops it.

Indeed, Bank of America analysts have also allowed for such a development, saying that if Brent can top $89 per barrel, it could go to $105 per barrel by the end of the year. That would probably take a major escalation in the Middle East or a slump in U.S. shale output.

By Oilprice.com , Irina Slav / Jul 30, 2024

Energy Transfer Completes Acquisition of WTG Midstream

Energy Transfer LP announced the successful completion of its acquisition of WTG Midstream Holdings LLC. The total consideration for the transaction was $2.275 billion in cash, along with approximately 50.8 million newly issued ET common units.

This acquisition significantly expands Energy Transfer’s footprint in the Midland Basin by adding approximately 6,000 miles of gas gathering pipelines to its network. Additionally, the transaction includes eight gas processing plants with a total capacity of around 1.3 Bcf/d, as well as two more processing plants currently under construction.

The newly acquired assets are expected to enhance Energy Transfer’s system by increasing the supply of NGL and natural gas volumes. This will generate additional revenue from gathering and processing activities, as well as from downstream transportation and fractionation fees. Energy Transfer anticipates that the WTG assets will contribute approximately $0.04 of Distributable Cash Flow per common unit in 2025, with an increase to around $0.07 per common unit by 2027.

The completion of this transaction underscores Energy Transfer’s commitment to expanding its infrastructure and capabilities within the energy sector, reinforcing its position as a leading player in the industry.

By: Storage Terminals Magazine / July 16, 2024