Category: Tank terminals

Tank Terminal Market Model – Part 1

Last week was a short review of the profit drivers for physical traders, where we explained in short how traders make profit. There are a lot of different factors influencing the tank storage sector. Mostly the imbalances in the sector create opportunities for financial players. The market appears to be complex and demonstrating a lack of transparency. PJK International has developed a Tank Terminals Commercial Performance Model to quickly gain insight and a higher proficiency of the tank storage market. This is the first part related to the Tank Terminal Market Model, next week we will publish the second part for you to be able to connect the dots.  

MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

First we describe the market fundamentals as shown in the image below. Relevant market fundamentals for the oil storage business are the shape of the forward curve, the competitive market structure and the logistical factors supply, demand, imbalances and trade flows. The shape of the forward curve is determined on oil futures markets. The oil price forward curve can be upward sloping (contango) or downward sloping (backwardation). In a backwardated market is less demand for tank storage than in case of a contango. Inventory levels are also lower in a backwardation compared to a contango. Both demand and tank availability are therefore affected and this influences the commercial setting.

Furthermore the competitive market structure consists of a supply-side and demand-side market structure. Tank capacity and market shares of various terminal operators are key factors that determine the supply-side competition. The number of players, their size and diversity are key factors on the demand-side of the market. Both demand- and supply-side competition influence commercial performance of the terminals. And also Tank terminals are part of the oil products supply chain and therefore logistical factors such as local product demand, regional refinery output, imbalances and trade flows are very relevant. Developments in these factors influence the demand and requirements for tank terminal capacity.

MARKET DYNAMICS

Besides the market fundamentals we have to take into consideration the market dynamics. Relevant market dynamics are inventory levels, arbitrage and trade flows, changes in product specifications and variation in vessel sizes. These market dynamics have a direct influence on operations and on terminal requirements. A terminal that can accommodate and can adapt better and faster to these dynamics compared to competitors will likely show superior commercial performance. From the previous section you could already see that market dynamics are linked to market fundamentals.

CONCLUSION

The market fundamentals and the market dynamics are important building blocks for Insights-Global’s commercial performance model. If you have any questions regarding the above mentioned subject please do not hesitate to us. 

Functions of tank terminals

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Introduction

During the coming weeks we will provide you with relevant information regarding the tank storage market and its influences and opportunities. This week we will focus on the different functions a tank terminal. It is the first of 5 blog articles for you to be able to better understand the drivers of this sector and help you with your commercial decisions.

Functions of a terminal

Tank terminals can have various functions, although commercial clients’ operational requirements tend to focus on the logistics/hub and trading platform functions. These three main functions are:

  • Logistics/hub – function
  • Trading platform
  • Strategic storage

Logistics/hub function

The logistics/hub function is firstly related to the make/break and bulk of the product(s). In addition we can observe an integrated approach between transport modalities such as sea, rail, road and pipeline. Also the correct integration with an industrial complex and buffer stock(s) are considered to be part of the logistical chain of a tank terminal.

Trading platform & Strategic storage

The tank storage activities can also be influenced by the financial markets, as investors, traders and other financial intermediates are active on various trading platforms. How do traders make money and why are they interested in the tank storage industry? Mainly by taking a physical (&paper) position(s), traders take advantage of a price differences between two or more instruments. They will make profit if there is a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance. As a trading platform four important factors can be described:

  1. Physical arbitrage
  2. Blending
  3. Contango storage
  4. Optionality

How does physical arbitrage work? During arbitrage the global commodity traders seek to identify and respond to supply and demand differentials between linked markets. Trading firms are essentially in the business of transforming commodities in space (logistics), in time (storage) and in form (processing). Traders with access to physical oil and storage can profit in a contango market, as the futures price of a commodity is above the expected spot price, and people are willing to pay more for a commodity at some point in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity. Besides this also optionality is very important as it builds in flexibility to profit from market opportunities and limits losses if the market turns against positions.

Conclusion

By focussing on the things that matter we can understand better how our clients are making money. As a result it can help shape your business, to have a better insight and to be able to make better operational and commercial decisions. By watching market indicators like the oil price level, market volatility and the forward curves it will provide a better picture of the market. This directly provides in-depth insights into the tank storage market developments. Our weekly report is specifically designed to clarify the mentioned above, and to provide a weekly market snapshot. If you would like more information please do not hesitate to contact me.

GREATER SINGAPORE TANK STORAGE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018 – PART 2

Click here if you missed Part 1 of the article “Greater Singapore Tank Storage Market Outlook 2018”.

Singapore naturally has a vast deficit of fuel oil as local production is only modest while demand is of unparalleled size. Large imports of fuel oil allow Singapore to fulfill its hub function.

THE IMPACT OF IMO 2020 – A GAME CHANGER

Fuel oil demand primarily comes from marine bunker activity and is therefore submissive to a large change following the IMO 2020 regulations, which require lower sulphur contents to be used in marine fuel.

Fuel oil generally is high on sulphur and will thus see a sharp decline in demand from 2020 onwards when high-sulphur fuel oil is replaced by, among other alternatives, diesel oil. After 2020 demand will gradually pick up as a result of growing economies and populations, but its share in marine bunkering will remain low.

The immediate switch from fuel oil to alternatives will provoke a surplus of the product for most countries in the region, while Singapore will continue to have a deficit, be it smaller than before. The region in whole will have a surplus in the short run, lowering fuel oil trade flows from other continents to Asia.

TRADE IMBALANCES WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TANK STORAGE USAGE

Diesel is Far East and the ISC’s largest refinery output category and together account for roughly 50% of the total. The main drivers for diesel demand are passenger cars with diesel engines, marine bunkers, building heating and industry. Passenger car fleet developments are of great importance to the demand for diesel. Since diesel does not propel the majority of cars in Far East and the ISC, the impact of car emissions regulations on diesel demand is limited. With growing populations and developing economies, the number of diesel-powered passenger cars is set to further increase in the future, despite more efficient engines, the increasing share of electric vehicles in the passenger car fleet and other environmental initiatives. IMO 2020 regulations, will increase the demand for diesel in the maritime sector. As of 2017 most of the region’s major producers and consumers of diesel have surplusses with the largest ones in China, India and South Korea. Australia, on the other hand, has quite a substantial deficit, meeting most of its diesel demand with imports.

China is the region’s largest producer of gasoline, followed by India and Japan. India and China have seen tremendous growth in their gasoline productions, both having doubled their output since 2009. The primary demand driver for gasoline is passenger cars, accounting for virtually the entire gasoline consumption. Passenger car fleet developments are therefore of even greater importance to gasoline than for diesel. Chinese demand for gasoline has more than doubled over the last decade despite strict emissions regulations but hasn’t outgrown production yet. Demand for gasoline is very sensitive to changes in car fuel usage, but the growing Chinese economy offsets the strict fuel policies of the country. India’s demand is still relatively low but growing rapidly, while Japanese demand naturally seems to be in decline. As for diesel, most of the major producers/consumers of gasoline had surplusses of the product in 2017.

Fuel oil has historically been Far East and the ISC’s third largest oil product in terms of demand. Simultaneously it’s Singapore’s largest product in terms of demand and trade volumes, since the country acts as the region’s largest marine bunker fuel hub. Local production is negligible, however, and Singapore fulfils demand through imports. The region has a deficit of the product despite increasing local production. Most fuel oil is produced by China and Japan, with China increasing its production while Japanese production is in decline. South Korean and Indian production is likewise in decline. Due to its hub function Singapore has the largest demand for fuel oil in the region, as a variety of ships from many different countries come to Singapore in search for the right propellant. China comes second in terms of demand, while Japanese fuel oil demand is only a third of what is was half a decade ago.

CONCLUSION

Relevant market fundamentals for the oil storage business are the shape of the forward curve, the competitive market structure and the logistical factors supply, demand, imbalances and trade flows. Tank terminals are part of the oil products supply chain and therefore logistical factors such as local product demand, regional refinery output, imbalances and trade flows are very relevant. Developments in these factors, as well as new regulations influence the demand and requirements for tank terminal capacity.

SINGAPORE TANK TERMINAL MARKET STUDY 2018

Based on extensive market research, Insights Global – in partnership with Ener8 Limited – has produced a +75 pages report providing insights into the Tank Terminal Market in both Singapore and the greater Singapore area.

Click here to download the table of contents.

For more information on how to purchase this report please contact info@insights-global.com

GREATER SINGAPORE TANK STORAGE MARKET OUTLOOK 2018 – PART 1

As one of the most crucial tank storage hubs in the world, Singapore and nowadays the greater Singapore region play a fundamental role in global trade.

Far East and the ISC countries have experienced tremendous economic growth over the past decades, and this upward trend even has had an impulse after the global financial crisis in 2008.  Going forward, trade imbalances, regulations and newly build capacity will continue to influence opportunities in the tank terminal industry in the greater Singapore region.

REGIONAL DEMAND FOR OIL PRODUCTS REMAINS STRONG

The continuously growing economies have driven supply and demand for oil products in Asia, with the Indian and especially Chinese economy increasing their production substantially. China, India, Japan and South Korea are the region’s largest suppliers of oil products, with China more than doubling any other country’s output in 2017.

Far East and the ISC refinery output primarily consists of diesel and gasoline, accounting for 44% and 26% of the region’s total output in 2017 respectively. The productions of both products grew rapid over the past decade, more than any other main refinery output, while demand for both products in the region has increased gradually over the last decade.

Far East and the ISC has surplussus of diesel, gasoline and jet-kerosene, meaning it produces more than it consumes of these products. A higher surpluss generally leads to higher exports of a product, implying an increased demand for temporary tank storage capacity. Deficits exist for fuel oil, naphtha and LPG, meaning Far East and the ISC has to import these products from outside of the region.  Singapore’s tank terminal industry has been benefiting from this situation for a long time.

SINGAPORE ON ALERT AS NEIGHBORS’ TANK STORAGE MARKET SHARE INCREASES

Malaysia and Indonesia aim at increasing their market share both approaching Singapore’ total tank storage capacity, while Singapore stays on alert with only minor expansions.

Singapore has been the largest provider of tank capacity in the Greater Singapore area and has roughly tripled its capacity since 2005, especially during the prolonged period of contango between 2005 and 2011, which supported demand for tank capacity. Market circumstances were less favorable after 2011, but the construction of new capacity had already begun adding new storage tanks after this date.

Malaysia is expected to almost double its capacity in 2018 with 4,900,000m3, while in Singapore a total of 370,000 m3 or a mere 2% of its total capacity is being constructed as of 2018. Indonesia has no capacity that is noteworthy under construction but has plans to add more than 7 million m3 in the future. This expansion would more than double the country’s total capacity, but whether these plans will be executed is uncertain.

Singapore will therefore primarily see increased competition from Malaysian tank storage operators.

PREPARING FOR A NEW SET OF CHALLENGES

The Tank Terminal industry in the Greater Singapore area is facing some new challenges, such as new restrictions on emissions, IMO 2020’s new bunker fuel specifications and logistical developments in Asia.

Environmental regulations will  have a downforce to gasoline and diesel demand in the region, changing national imbalances and thus trade flows.  A sharp decline in fuel oil demand as of 2020 on the other hand, will increase marine gasoil demand, which will result in less temporary storage of fuel oil in Singapore and increase the demand for temporary storage of marine gasoil.

There may also be pressure on demand for marine bunkering and temporary oil products storage in Singapore when alternative cargo routes replace the Strait of Malacca. These could include new One Belt One Road trade routes and China’s two Ocean’s strategy via pipelines through Myanmar.

Click here to read Part 2 of the article “Greater Singapore Tank Storage Market Outlook 2018”.

SINGAPORE TANK TERMINAL MARKET STUDY 2018

Based on extensive market research, Insights Global – in partnership with Ener8 Limited – has produced a +75 pages report providing insights into the Tank Terminal Market in both Singapore and the greater Singapore area.

Click here to download the table of contents. 

For more information on how to purchase this report please contact info@insights-global.com

Quick insight ARA Tank Terminal capacity expansion

The ARA region is an important trading hub in Northwest Europe due to its infrastructure and fundamentals to serve the physical market for liquid trade. Location is key and ARA’s location is exceptional due to the Rhine river that connects with the Benelux countries, Switzerland, France and Germany. Also the ARA region provides refining facilities, tank storage and is seen as oil pricing center.

In the first image you can view the evolution of the tank terminal capacity in the greater ARA region. Important capacity additions in the past two years were done by Botlek Tank Terminals, Koole Tank Storage Minerals and NoordNatie Antwerp. At the same time we can observe various expansion activities in the ARA region, which will increase the current tank storage capacity further.

Secondly in the image below you can see the capacity under construction. Various players will also be adding capacity to their current storage capacity. The total amount of storage capacity under construction will be about 2.3% of current installed capacity and will be accessible in the coming years. Besides expansions , new terminals are expected to be built as well in various ports, focusing on liquid bulk like mineral oil products & petrochemicals.

We do expect some changes that might alter the ARA fuel oil market and petrochemical market and may therefor influence the tank storage market in those segments. Are you interested to get more information contact us at the headquarters in the Netherlands at +31 (0) 850 66 25 22.

A brief observation of the Northwest European markets and its place in the global naphtha supply chain.

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Tank terminals play a vital role in current global markets. Their primary function is to physically balance supply and demand along the supply chain and to facilitate opportunities. The ARA region is the main trading hub within Northwest Europe due to its outstanding infrastructure, its network with many active market players and its place within the overall supply chain. We will take a closer look at the naphtha markets in this region and its importance for the international oil markets. Naphtha is retrieved from various sources like condensate gas, petroleum distillates or the distillation of tar and is mostly used in the gasoline blending and petrochemical markets.

Within ARA, with the Port of Amsterdam being a gasoline blending hub, demand for naphtha is fairly high and it makes North West Europe net-importer for the product.Other regions like the Middle East , the Mediterranean and India are net-exporters which provide global trade flows of the product. Competition for import to North West Europe comes from petrochemical markets in East Asia, which are also big net-importers as seen in the top graph to the right. The imbalance between the supply and demand in the different regions provides trading opportunities in various ways.

The ARA naphtha import is headed by Russia, having the biggest volume compared to the other countries with UK, Germany, Algeria, France and Spain as well in the top six sources list, as seen in the graph. This shows the reliance on near as well as less local markets of the various market participants. A shrinking imbalance is negative for the ARA tank storage sector. However, considering the market size and the option to switch to the gasoline segment the impact seems small.

PJK International provides direct insight in the market by not only its annual Tank Terminal reports, but also with weekly reports on stock levels of various products (including naphtha) stored at independent tank terminals in the ARA region, a weekly report on the trade flows up and down the Rhine river and daily barge freight rates for transport within ARA and up the Rhine. This way, we provide tools for better and quicker decision making processes.

Would you like more information ?For more information contact us at Insights Global HQ in the Netherlands.+31 (0)850 662500

Importance of Tank Terminals in Tanker Shipping

Businesses and traders of bulk liquid cargoes and gasses select ports because of their location, maritime access, hinterland connectivity, value-added services, economies of scale, and the availability of independent tank terminals.

Tanker owners prefer to sail to ports with high throughput volumes, fast turnarounds and low demurrage risks. The availability of tankers is a critical factor in the success of ports.

Ship Owners also look at reducing costs through vessel design, slow steaming between locations and reducing time spent in ports by optimizing loading and discharging.

The ship-shore interface involves tankers loading and discharging at regularly visited shore terminals, but with spot activity, vessels also need to call at many terminals they are not familiar with. This comes together with an increased risk for tanker owners. Similarly, each tank terminal now handles more tankers of different types and sizes than ever before.

The above indicates that the relation and coordination between vessel owners and tank terminals could be of great importance and a clear game changer. Better cooperation will not only help optimize operations and reduce cost but also support better risk management.

The importance of tank terminals in what-if scenarios

A tanker owner may need to discharge a cargo due to an emergency or because missing a loading or discharge window. In the chemical trade, for example, there is an agreed laycan or in other words an agreed loading time range at the end of which comes the time when the charterers are entitled to exercise their option and cancel the charter party for non-arrival of the owners’ vessel.

Being stuck in a port or being cancelled by the charterer has an impact on not just the current voyage, but all future voyages and fleet planning. This can have a huge negative impact on the owners’ financial performance.

So, in case of an emergency, delay or cancellation, good relations and communications between tanker owners and tank terminals may help mitigate risks. Finding a tank terminal to discharge cargoes during an accident or hazard may also be required from time to time.

New opportunities

Tank terminal projects are very good market indicators since projects are often announced early and set the stage for future product flows. Bulk liquid terminals play an important role when trading centers are shifting and new hubs are being developed.

Demand and production swings are taking place all the time resulting in shifts between long and short haul shipments. Short haul shipments tend to have smaller volumes and therefore require smaller vessels. Such changes have an impact on loading and discharge operations at tank terminals, including jetty capabilities and tank sizes.

As Owners are looking for economies of scale, ships are however getting bigger and ship owners need to make sure that tank terminals can handle such larger vessels and large quantities of cargo. A good example is the Bow Pioneer, the largest IMO II chemical tanker with a deadweight of 75000, measuring 288 meters long and 37 meters wide. The use of larger tankers in any market segment may result in the development of more hub terminals to receive larger vessels and support regional distribution and transshipment activity.

Tank terminals may also be an interesting investment opportunity for ship owners to diversify and create a more balanced business portfolio. While freight rate and volume levels may be low during an economic downturn, inventories at terminals may be high during such times. Some storage contracts are negotiated on a take or pay basis which means the client pays even if they don’t use the tank. This provides a level of guaranteed income. And if not invest, why not develop a strategic tank terminal tanker owner alliance for a specific project.