Independent ARA product stocks hit three-year lows (week 45 – 2021)

Independently-held oil products stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to their lowest since November 2018 during the week to 10 November, amid firm demand and ongoing logistical problems on northwest European waterways.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show overall inventories fell on the week, with stocks of all surveyed products except fuel oil lower. Barge freight costs in the ARA area and along the river Rhine continued to rise during the week, owing to a lack of available barges.

Low water on the river Rhine and firm demand for refined products have combined to take any excess barge capacity off the market since September 2021, adding additional cost to any refining operations that require moving anything on or off site on barges.

Demand for road fuels is firm around the region. Gasoline stocks fell. Barge congestion and loading delays remained a factor around northwest Europe, and ate into gasoline blending margins. Tankers arrived from Estonia, Italy, Russia, Turkey and the UK, and departed for the Mideast Gulf, Canada, east Africa, the US and west Africa. Demand from the US remained robust and blending activity in the ARA appeared higher on the week.

Gasoil inventories fell, dropping on the week. Flows up the Rhine from the ARA area fell further, having reached two-month lows the previous week. Tankers departed the ARA area for India, Russia and the US and arrived from France, Germany and the UK. Steep backwardation in the Ice gasoil market created little incentive to maintain inventories, prompting some Baltic cargoes to head west across the Atlantic rather than discharging in the ARA area. Inflows to the ARA area from Asia are low for the same reason.

Naphtha stocks fell to their lowest since February 2020. Barge flows of naphtha to petrochemical facilities around northwest Europe held steady on the week. Tankers arrived from Algeria, Norway, Portugal, Russia and the US, while none departed.

Jet fuel stocks fell to fresh 18-month lows, with consumption supported by the reopening of some long-haul flight routes. Tankers arrived from Malaysia and Portugal, and departed for the UK and Ireland.

Fuel oil stocks rose after reaching their lowest since March 2020 the previous week. Inventories may be rising ahead of the loading of the VLCC Lita during the coming week for delivery to Asia.

Cargoes departed for the Mediterranean, Port Said, South Africa and west Africa, and arrived from Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Russia and Sweden.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA product stocks hit two-year lows (week 44 – 2021)

Independently-held oil products stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to their lowest since December 2019 during the week, amid firm demand and logistical problems on northwest European waterways.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show overall inventories fell by, with stocks of all surveyed products lower. Demand for road fuels is firm around the region, and barge loading restrictions on the Rhine have taken any spare capacity out of the spot barge market, making it more expensive to move necessary components around the waterways of northwest Europe.

Gasoil inventories fell to their lowest since April 2020, dropping on the week. The fall would probably have been even greater without the loading restrictions on the Rhine caused by low water levels, and flows up the Rhine from the ARA area fell to two-month lows.

Seagoing tankers departed the ARA area for France, Germany, the UK and west Africa, and arrived from Sweden and Russia. Diesel loadings from the Russian port of Primorsk are scheduled to rise this month, though it is not clear how much of the scheduled is likely to discharge in the ARA area.

Gasoline stocks fell.Barge congestion and loading delays remained a factor around the ARA area, and the trade in barge components appeared quieter on the week. Tankers arrived from Latvia, Russia, Sweden and the UK, and departed for Portugal, the US and west Africa. Steep backwardation in the northwest European gasoline market is providing sellers with a clear incentive to only produce cargoes that will find a ready home elsewhere.

Barge congestion and loading delays remained a factor around the ARA area, and the trade in barge components appeared quieter on the week. Tankers arrived from Latvia, Russia, Sweden and the UK, and departed for Portugal, the US and west Africa. Steep backwardation in the northwest European gasoline market is providing sellers with a clear incentive to only produce cargoes that will find a ready home elsewhere.

Jet fuel stocks fell to their lowest since May 2020, in contrast to the typical seasonal trend. Jet fuel inventories typically fall during the peak summer demand season before rising throughout the fourth quarter. But limited barge capacity and the reopening of some long-haul flight routes have disrupted the typical pattern. A single tanker arrived from Finland, most likely sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and tankers departed for Ireland and the UK.

Naphtha stocks fell to their lowest since July 2020. Barge flows of naphtha to petrochemical facilities around northwest Europe remained robust despite the high freight rates, with naphtha demand being supported by relatively high prices of all rival feedstocks.

Tankers arrived from Russia and Sweden and departed for the Mediterranean, the Mideast Gulf and west Africa.

Fuel oil stocks fell to their lowest since March 2020, albeit dropping less on the week. Cargoes departed for Brazil and west Africa and arrived from Estonia, Poland, Russia and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA gasoline stocks rise (week 43 – 2021)

Independently-held oil products stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub held steady during the week to 27 October, although gasoline inventories rose by 18pc to reach fifteen-week highs.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show overall inventories were steady during the week to 27 October, with a sharp rise in gasoline stocks being offset by a drop in gasoil inventories. Gasoline inventories were supported by the arrival of tankers from Latvia, Norway, Russian, Sweden and the UK.

Cargoes departed for the US, west Africa, Angola, Brazil and Puerto Rico. Robust demand from export markets has stimulated gasoline blending activity in the ARA area in recent weeks, a factor which has contributed to severe delays in loading and discharging gasoline and components at terminals around the area.

The Rhine barge market is disrupted by lower water levels. At least two vessels not carrying oil products ran aground on 26 October just south of Karlsruhe, effectively blocking the river to all traffic.

Refined product barges are unlikely to be able to transit the area until either 29-30 October, when work to dredge a deeper channel should have been completed.

Low middle distillate inventories inland are likely to draw in significant volumes from ARA once the river reopens. ARA gasoil inventories fell during the week to 27 October, owing to firm demand for diesel from around northwest Europe. Tankers arrived in ARA from Russia and departed for Germany, Ireland, the UK and US.

Naphtha inventories rose, supported by the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Norway, Russia and the US. Keen demand particularly from gasoline blenders is making northwest Europe an attractive arbitrage destination for cargoes from both the Mediterranean and the US Gulf Coast.

Fuel oil stocks fell, with outflows to the Mideast Gulf and the Mediterranean being more than offset by the arrival of cargoes from Denmark, Poland, Russia and the UK.

Jet fuel stocks rose for the third consecutive week, in line with seasonal expectations. Jet fuel stocks typically hit their nadir during peak summer demand season before rising during the fourth quarter. Tankers departed for the UK and Ireland and arrived from South Korea.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA independent oil product stocks rise (week 42 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose during the week to 20 October, after reaching their lowest of the Covid-19 pandemic the previous week.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show overall inventories rose during the week to 20 October, bolstered by the arrival of several diesel cargoes from Russia. Gasoil stocks, including diesel, which rose during the week to reach six-week highs.

Firm demand for road fuels from the northwest European hinterland kept barge flows of middle distillates into Germany from the ARA area robust, despite low water levels limiting barges to around half their capacity. Seagoing tankers also arrived in the ARA area from India, and departed for France, the UK, the US and west Africa.

Congestion at terminals around the ARA area continued to affect gasoline production, with traders unable to secure barges for prompt loadings. Tankers containing finished-grade gasoline and components arrived from Denmark, Latvia, Poland and Sweden, and departed for Canada, France, the Mediterranean, Pakistan and west Africa.

No gasoline departed for the US Atlantic coast, typically a key export market. High blending component costs in northwest Europe, as well as keen local demand for road fuels, have kept the westbound transatlantic arbitrage route closed despite a drawdown in gasoline inventories in the US Atlantic coast area.

Naphtha inventories ticked up on the week, despite keen demand from gasoline blenders and petrochemical producers in northwest Europe. Stocks were supported by the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Norway, Russia, Spain, the UK and the US.

Several tankers are also on their way from the Mediterranean, and market participants report very limited availability of the highly paraffinic naphtha prized by gasoline blenders and petrochemical feedstock buyers.

Fuel oil stocks fell, returning to the level recorded a fortnight earlier. Tankers departed for the Mediterranean and west Africa, and arrived from Denmark, Russia, the UK and the US.

Jet fuel stocks were broadly steady on the week, but gaining.

Tankers arrived from Kuwait and South Korea, and departed for Ireland and the UK. Rising Covid-19 cases in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands prompted the Moroccan government to ban incoming flights from the three countries from 21 October.

Bans on incoming flights from European airports profoundly impacted jet fuel demand during earlier phases of the pandemic, and would likely do so again in the event that more countries follow Morocco’s lead in imposing restrictions.

Reporter: Tom Warner

ARA independent oil product stocks fall (week 41 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic during the week to 13 October.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show inventories fell during the week to 13 October, weighed down by declines in stocks of gasoil, gasoline and naphtha.

Gasoline stocks fell to six-week lows, weighed down by keen demand from west Africa and by difficulties in producing fresh cargoes. Congestion in the barge market particularly around Amsterdam is causing delays and disruption to the movement of gasoline blending components. Demand for road fuels from within Europe is also high, with gasoline and diesel consumption above pre-Covid levels in several key European markets.

Gasoline tankers departed for west Africa, Canada, Egypt, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and the UK, while cargoes of finished-grade gasoline and components arrived from Finland, Germany, Latvia, Italy, Russia, Spain and Sweden.

Gasoil stocks also fell. Flows of middle distillates up the river Rhine were steady on the week despite a fall in water levels, with keen diesel demand inland. Tankers departed the ARA area for Argentina, France, the UK, the US and west Africa, and arrived from India, Italy, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Naphtha stocks dropped to reach their lowest since July, on keen demand both from gasoline blenders and petrochemical end-users.

High LPG prices have made naphtha more attractive as a blending component and as a feedstock in ethylene cracking, reducing inventories and adding to the congestion in the regional barge market. Tankers arrived from Algeria, Norway, Russia, the US and the UK.

Fuel oil stocks rose, with cargoes arriving from Estonia, Russia and the UK and departing for Brazil, the Caribbean and the Mediterranean.

Jet stocks rose, supported by the arrival of a cargo from Kuwait. Smaller tankers departed for the UK and Ireland.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA independent oil product stocks fall (week – 40 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to their lowest since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic during the week to 6 October.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show inventories fell during the week to 6 October, weighed down by declines in stocks of fuel oil, gasoline and jet fuel.

Fuel oil stocks fell, with cargoes departing for the Mediterranean, the US and at least one Suezmax cargo to west Africa. Tankers arrived in ARA area from Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland, Russia, Spain and the UK.

Gasoline stocks also fell, amid heavy congestion particularly around the key blending hub of Amsterdam. Efforts to blend winter-grade gasoline cargoes for export has absorbed most of the available supply of spot barges.

This has pushed freight costs to their highest since June last year, when many barges were being used as floating storage to hold the supply overhang that immediately followed the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Gasoline tankers departed for Canada, the Mediterranean, South Africa, the US and west Africa. Outflows to the US fell on the week while outflows to west Africa rose.

Jet stocks fell to reach their lowest level since April 2021. A single tanker arrived in ARA from Russia, while cargoes departed for the UK and Ireland.

Gasoil and naphtha inventories both rose, with gasoil stocks edging up on the week. Flows of middle distillates up the river Rhine fell on the week, as a result of low water levels and higher freight costs. Tankers departed for Brazil, France, the UK, the US and west Africa and arrived from Kuwait, Russia and the UAE.

Naphtha inventories rose despite continued high flows out of the region to petrochemical end-users inland and steady demand from gasoline blenders around the ARA area. Cargoes arrived from Russia, Spain, the UK and the US.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent oil product stocks fall in ARA (week 37 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell over the past week, according to consultancy Insights Global, as demand for road fuels continues to recover.

Total refined product inventories decreased during the week, weighed down by falls in road fuel inventories. Demand for gasoline and diesel is back above pre-Covid levels in several major European markets, while European refinery runs remain below 2019 levels, putting pressure on inventories.

Gasoil stocks declined on the week, with diesel shipments up the river Rhine from ARA to Germany rising, because of firmer demand. French diesel margins reached their highest since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic yesterday, at premiums to North Sea Dated crude.

Gasoline inventories fell, close to a five-year low.

Exports rose on the week, and shipments of gasoline blending components into ARA from refineries along the river Rhine fell. Barge movements around ARA rose on the week, as gasoline blenders worked to produce fresh cargoes for export particularly to the US.

Naphtha stocks edged up, with inflows from Germany, Italy, Norway, Poland, Russia, the UK and the US being offset by a rise in barge shipments to petrochemical destinations around northwest Europe.

Fuel oil stocks fell to reach a seven-week low. Outflows of VLSFO to the Mediterranean have risen in recent weeks, reducing inventories in northwest Europe.

Jet fuel stocks rose to five-week highs, supported by the arrival of at least two cargoes from east of Suez.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Oil Slides on Demand Concerns, Strong Dollar

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, pressured by a strong U.S. dollar and concerns about weak demand in the United States and Asia, although ongoing production outages on the U.S. Gulf Coast capped losses.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 94 cents or 1.4% from Friday’s close at $68.35 a barrel, and touched a session low of $67.64. There was no settlement price for Monday due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States.

Brent crude futures settled down 53 cents, or 0.7%, a $71.69 a barrel, after falling 39 cents on Monday.

John Saucer, vice president of crude oil markets at Mobius Risk Group in Houston, said a stronger dollar and Saudi Arabia’s move on Sunday to cut October official selling prices (OSPs) were pressuring crude. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“People read the Saudi price change as a sign of Asian demand fading and the scale of the cut was larger than expected,” Saucer said.

Saudi Arabia cut the price for all crude grades sold to Asia by at least $1 a barrel. The move, a sign that consumption in the world’s top-importing region remains tepid, comes as lockdowns across Asia to combat the Delta variant of the coronavirus have clouded the economic outlook.

Data released on Friday also showed the U.S. economy in August created the fewest jobs in seven months as hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector stalled amid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections.

However, oil prices found some support from strong Chinese economic indicators and continued outages of U.S. supply from Hurricane Ida.

China’s crude oil imports rose 8% in August from a month earlier, customs data showed, while China’s economy got a boost as exports unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in August.

In the Gulf of Mexico, around 79% of oil production remained shut, or 1.44 million barrels per day, a U.S. regulator said on Tuesday, more than a week after Ida hit.

By Reuters, September 14, 2021

Independent ARA Oil Product Stocks Hit Two-Month High (week 36 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose over the past week to reach their highest level since mid-July, according to consultancy Insights Global.

Total refined product inventories increased during the week to 8 September on the back of a significant build in gasoline and gasoil stocks. Gasoline inventories rose, having hit a five-year low a week earlier.

The increase was driven by a sharp drop in exports to the US, where demand for European cargoes has been disrupted by flooding on the US Atlantic coast and a tailing off of demand for summer-grade gasoline.

Barge traffic of gasoline blending components rose on the week, suggesting that production of winter-grade cargoes is ramping up ahead of the seasonal transition later this month.

Tankers carrying gasoline did depart ARA for the US, albeit in fewer numbers than recent weeks. Gasoline cargoes also left for west Africa, Colombia, the Mediterranean and Canada, while cargoes of finished-grade gasoline and components arrived in ARA from Finland, the UK, the Latvia, Russia and Spain.

Gasoil stocks gained on the week. Diesel flows up the river Rhine from the ARA area into Germany fell to a five-week low, while diesel tanker inflows to ARA rose. Cargoes arrived from Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US, while tankers carrying diesel departed ARA for France, the Mediterranean and the UK.

Barge shipments of jet fuel from ARA to inland airports rose over the past week, reaching the highest level since June 2019. This was likely supported by restocking at airports following the peak summer demand season. Jet fuel stocks fell as a result, despite the arrival of at least one jet cargo from Russia.

Naphtha stocks ticked up by 1pc, with inflows from Algeria, Norway, Russia and the US more than offsetting the departure of at least one naphtha cargo for Brazil. Flows of naphtha from ARA up the river Rhine to inland petrochemical facilities slowed on the week, but demand from gasoline blenders in the ARA area was robust.

Fuel oil stocks fell to reach a six-week low. Cargoes carrying fuel oil departed ARA for the Caribbean and the Mediterranean, and arrived from Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA Gasoline Stocks Hit Five-Year Lows (Week 35 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell during the week to yesterday, with gasoline inventories reaching their lowest since October 2016, according to consultancy Insights Global.

Gasoline inventories fell on the week, weighed down by continued outflows to the US. European gasoline tends to flow west across the Atlantic throughout the peak summer demand season, but flows stayed robust during the week to 1 September.

Disruption to US refining caused by Hurricane Ida is likely to stimulate demand for imported European gasoline, prolonging the period of high westbound transatlantic gasoline flows into September.

Tankers also departed the ARA area for Canada, Costa Rica, Egypt and Puerto Rico, and arrived from Saudi Arabia, France, Italy, Latvia, Spain and the UK.

ARA gasoil stocks also fell, to four-month lows. Imports were low, with nothing arriving from Russia during the week. Cargoes did arrive from Finland and the US, and departed for France, the UK and west Africa. Backwardation in the Ice gasoil forward curve is providing little incentive for market participants to keep middle distillates in storage tanks, in turn limiting northwest European demand for import cargoes.

Naphtha stocks fell, dropping back from the six-month highs recorded the prior week. Most of the drop was the result of the departure of the Sea Shell from the ARA area for Asia-Pacific, carrying naphtha cargo. Smaller cargoes arrived into the ARA area from Norway, Russia, the UK and the US.

Fuel oil stocks fell to reach five-week lows. Cargoes departed for France, Russia and the UK and arrived from the Mediterranean and west Africa. Jet fuel stocks rose, buoyed by the arrival of a part cargo from Malaysia on board the Lyric Camellia. Jet tankers departed for the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner