ARA independent oil product stocks tick up (week 21 -2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose, after reaching seven-year lows the week prior.

Data from consultancy Insights Global suggests that refined product inventories in the ARA area have been hovering since September, with the increase in demand following the Covid-19 pandemic and a relatively slow recovery in global crude output preventing any significant recovery in stock levels. Stocks averaged during 2019, the last full year before the beginning of the pandemic.

The rise recorded during the week to 25 May was prompted by a increase in gasoline inventories. The gasoline figure includes blending components, and the increase was probably the result of market participants bringing components into the ARA for blending into finished-grade cargoes for export.

Outflows from northwest Europe to the US are at seasonally high levels ahead of the summer driving season across the Atlantic. Tankers arrived from France, Russia, Spain, Sweden and the UK and departed for Canada, Mexico, Pakistan, Puerto Rico, the US and west Africa.

Gasoil stocks fell for the second consecutive week, supported by an increase in barge flows to destinations along the river Rhine. Water levels on the Rhine increased during the week to 25 May, making it more economical to move material inland. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Russia, Qatar and the US and departed for Brazil, Germany, Poland, Spain and the UK.

Naphtha stocks fell, with a sharp increase in flows of barges to destinations along the river Rhine offsetting a glut of imports. Petrochemical end-users inland are probably stocking up on naphtha for use as a feedstock, while naphtha refining margins are at their lowest since the global financial crisis of 2008. Tankers arrived from Algeria, Brazil, Russia, Spain, the US and the UK while none departed.

Fuel oil stocks rose on the week, bolstered by the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Bulgaria, Latvia, Russia, and the UK. Jet fuel stocks rose on the week,with a single cargo arriving from Kuwait and at least one departing for the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA independent oil product stocks hit seven-year low (Week 20 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell in the week, the lowest since December 2014.

The latest data from consultancy Insights Global show tank occupancy at the lowest rate since it began publishing that series in 2017. European product inventories are under pressure from a fall in Russian supply and a recovery in demand as Covid-19 pandemic restrictions ease.

The week-on-week fall was led by a fall in gasoline stocks, which was itself the steepest weekly drop in five years. Transatlantic flows of European gasoline are high, as US gasoline supply is under the same pressures as in Europe.

Frenetic blending activity is causing discharge delays of several days at terminals in Amsterdam and Antwerp receiving blending components. Tankers arrived in the week from Bulgaria, France, Germany, Russia, Sweden, Turkey and the UK and departed for Canada, Ecuador, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, west Africa and the US.

Gasoil stocks fell on the week, even though barge movements from the ARA area to destinations along the river Rhine fell. This is the lowest since Insights Global began publishing Rhine barge flow data in 2017, with the exception of the rare days when the low water levels have closed the river to traffic.

Tankers arrived at ARA in the week from India, Russia and the US, and departed for Argentina, the UK, the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks leapt, with a burgeoning regional oversupply. Refinery run rates in Europe are rising to meet increasing demand for road fuels, but a closed naphtha arbitrage route to Asia-Pacific means additional production is struggling to find a home.

Tankers arrived into the ARA area from Algeria, Israel, Russia, Spain and the UK, and none departed.

Jet fuel stocks rose on the week, which is lower than in the same week of 2021 when stricter air travel restrictions meant more jet was put into storage.

Air travel demand continues to rise at faster rates than airlines expected, according to market participants, meaning jet fuel supplies are short in Europe. No tankers arrived at ARA in the week, and at least one departed for west Africa.

Fuel oil stocks fell on the week, affected by lower supply from Russia. At least one cargo did arrive from that country, and others came from France, Latvia, Poland, the UK and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA stocks ease as jet hits two-year lows (week 19 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell in the week, but failed to reverse a week prior, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Gasoil stocks rose in the week following a rise in last week, moving to their highest point since the week to 24 March. Inventories remained much lower than a year ago however, and were well-below the same time of year in 2019.

Tankers carrying gasoil arrived into ARA from India, Qatar and Russia, and departed for the UK, the UK and west Africa.

Russian gasoil volumes have continued to arrive into ARA in recent weeks, with flows to the region hitting four-year highs even while loadings from key Baltic ports have been easing.

Much of this supply is likely finding its way into the region’s blending and storage infrastructure, and may be being repurposed for the west African market, to which flows have risen, given a currently more relaxed take on Russian-origin product.

Europe is a net importer of diesel given the continent’s lack of capacity to meet demand, which means arrivals from the US are typical. The emergence of European exports to the US this week likely points to tightening stateside fundamentals, where distillate inventories have recently hit record lows.

Inventories of gasoline rose on the week, reaching their highest level since March last year. But the lift in stocks belies tightening fundamentals for the product, for which transatlantic demand has risen sharply in recent weeks, and likely reflects a lift in gasoline blending rates given record high premiums to blending component naphtha in recent sessions.

Gasoline cargoes arrived into ARA from France, Germany, Latvia, Poland, Russia and Spain, while cargoes left for Canada, the Mediterranean, Mexico, the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks led the week’s decline, easing in the week to 11 May.

Stocks are now at their lowest point since late February. Cargoes arrived into ARA from Algeria, Greece, Spain and Turkey. Cargoes also arrived from and left for the US. The fall in stocks despite steady arrivals also likely points to a lift in gasoline blending activity in the ARA hub.

Currently tight jet market fundamentals were reflected by the fact that stocks of the product fell on the week and are now at their lowest since mid-May 2020, near the start of the current Covid-19 pandemic.

Cargoes arrived from the UAE and left for the UK and west Africa across the week.

And fuel oil stocks fell on the week, though demand was said to be relatively muted. Cargoes mainly arrived into ARA from Estonia, though also from France and Russia. Cargoes left the region for India, the US and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA Independent Oil Product Stocks Inch up (Week 17 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area edged up during the week to 28 April, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Gasoil stocks were up, but they were still around a third below the five-year average for this time of year. Tankers carrying gasoil arrived in ARA from India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the US, and departed for Germany, Spain and the UK.

Jet fuel stocks fell on the week, as air travel in Europe continues to pick up. But jet fuel demand has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels, and ARA jet stocks still higher than the same period of 2019. Tankers carrying jet fuel arrived from Russia and departed for the UK.

Gasoline stocks dipped on the week above the five-year average as product is held in storage awaiting blending components before the peak summer demand season. Tankers carrying gasoline departed ARA for the Mediterranean, Mexico, Africa and the US and arrived from France, Germany, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the UK.

Naphtha stocks rose on the week. There were no outgoing cargoes, as the eastward arbitrage to Asia-Pacific closed. Tankers carrying naphtha arrived from Algeria, Brazil, Norway, Russia and the US.

Fuel oil stocks also rose slightly, with cargoes arriving in ARA from Germany, Russia and the UK. Tankers departed from Germany, Spain, the Mediterranean and the UAE.

Reporter: Bea O’Kelly

ARA Independent Oil Product Stocks Fall (Week 16 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 20 April, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Backwardation across the refined oil product markets continues to give European market participants little incentive to store product in rented tanks. Independent stocks remained, led by falls in gasoil and jet fuel inventories.

Gasoil stocks fell to their lowest since April 2014, owing to steep backwardation in the underlying Ice gasoil contract. Tankers arrived from Finland, Qatar, Russia, France and the UK, and flows of barges up the river Rhine fell to their lowest since February 2020, when the river was impassable owing to high water levels.

Spot trading activity is low, with European majors happy to supply end-users from their own refineries and avoid unnecessary trades. Jet fuel stocks fell weighed down by a rise in consumption over the Easter weekend.

Tankers departed the ARA area for the UK, Ireland and Norway, while none arrived.

Stocks of all other surveyed product groups rose. Gasoline stocks were up, as frenetic blending activity outweighed a rise in outflows to destinations across the Atlantic. Tankers also departed for the Mediterranean and west Africa, and arrived from Italy, Latvia, Russia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

Naphtha stocks rose, as supplies lengthened in the region. Low interest from Asia-Pacific in Mediterranean cargoes has prompted an increase in inflows from the Mediterranean to the ARA area, and cargoes have also been making their way in from the US Gulf coast, France, Russia and Spain.

Fuel oil stocks rose, with regional demand and outflows to the Mediterranean and west Africa broadly balancing out the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Estonia, the Mediterranean, Poland, Russia and Sweden.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA Independent Oil Product Stocks Fall (Week 13 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 30 March, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Tightness in oil products supply gave market participants little incentive to store material at independent tank facilities, bringing overall stocks close to the seven-year lows recorded in mid-February.

Loading and discharge delays were heard around the ARA area, aggravated by refinery maintenance turnarounds in the region concentrating loadings at relatively few terminals.

Gasoil stocks fell to reach six-week lows, weighed down the departure of tankers for Germany and west Africa. Barge flows to destinations along the river Rhine were broadly steady on the week.

Loading restrictions prompted by low water levels reduced the number of barges available to spot charterers, as two or more barges are currently needed to move the same volume as is usually possible on just one. Seagoing tankers arrived from Russia and the US.

Gasoline stocks were stable on the week. Blending activity continued apace, stimulated by the production of new summer-grade fuel. Tankers arrived from Denmark, Finland, France, Italy and Spain, and departed for Canada, Mexico, Spain, Sweden, the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks fell, amid ample demand from gasoline blenders that contributed to the loading and discharge delays in the regional barge market. Tankers arrived from Finland, Portugal, Russia, Spain and the US, and departed for the Mediterranean.

Jet fuel stocks rose, reaching their highest since September 2021 as part of seasonal restocking ahead of the summer season. A single tanker arrived in the ARA area from the UAE while cargoes departed for the UK.

Fuel oil stocks fell, with the arrival of cargoes from Estonia, Poland, Russia and Sweden insufficient to offset the departure of cargoes for the Mediterranean, the UK and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA oil product stocks steady (Week 12 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 23 March, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

A general slowdown in the spot trading of most major refined oil products helped preclude major swings in inventory levels. Many participants in the European market are reluctant to handle Russian cargoes, although cargoes do continue to flow into the ARA area, particularly from the Baltic. Barge loading and discharge delays of several days were heard around Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, further slowing the trade in refined products.

Gasoil stocks rose, supported by the arrival of tankers from India, Qatar, Russia, Turkey and the US. Barge flows to destinations along the river Rhine rose on the week. Loading restrictions prompted by low water levels reduced the number of barges available to spot charterers, as two or more barges are currently needed to move the same volume as was possible a few weeks ago with a single vessel.

The scarcity of barges is leading some charterers to book vessels and then find something to load it with, rather than the other way about which is more typical. Seagoing tankers departed for the Mediterranean, Poland and the UK.

Gasoline stocks rose, bolstered by the arrival of tankers from Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Russia, Spain, Turkey and the UK. The level of blending activity in the region is increasing as part of the transition to summer-grade gasoline during the coming weeks. Tankers departed for the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks fell, weighed down by an increase in demand from gasoline blenders that contributed to the loading discharge delays in the regional barge market. Tankers arrived from Algeria, Russia, Spain and the US, while none departed.

Jet fuel stocks rose, supported by the rare arrival of a cargo from the US, as well as at least one from Russia, while tankers departed for Ireland and the UK. Fuel oil stocks fell, with the arrival of cargoes from Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Russia and Sweden insufficient to offset the departure of cargoes for the Mediterranean and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Russian Cargoes Swell ARA Oil Product Stocks (Week 11 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose during the week to 16 March, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Cargoes of refined products from Russia continued to flow into Europe during the week, in a further sign that fears of widespread disruption to supply are not being borne out. Cargoes of gasoil, gasoline components, naphtha and fuel oil all arrived into the ARA area, either as part of trades or as part of efforts to move Russian cargoes into longer-term storage.

Gasoline recorded the most significant week on week increase on the week, owing to a slowdown in exports. No tankers departed for the US, but some gasoline did depart for Canada, the Mediterranean and west Africa. Tankers arrived from Finland, Latvia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sweden and the UK.

Naphtha stocks rose by a similar percentage, supported by the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Bulgaria, Latvia, Russia and the UK. The arrival of a Black Sea cargo into northwest Europe is rare and reflects the unviability of the arbitrage route from the Black Sea to Asia-Pacific, forcing Black Sea cargoes to find homes elsewhere.

Gasoil stocks fell, with tankers arriving from Russia and departing for France, Portugal and the UK. Flows to destinations along the river Rhine were inhibited by low water levels on the river Rhine, which prevented barges heading to upper Rhine destinations from loading to capacity.

Fuel oil stocks fell, holding broadly steady on the week. Cargoes arrived from Denmark, Poland and Russia, and departed for the Mediterranean and the UK.

Jet fuel stocks rose, supported by the arrival of cargoes from China, India and Kuwait.

Cargoes also departed for the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA Oil Product Stocks Fall Close to Seven-Year Lows (week 10 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week, approaching the seven-year low recorded at the end of February, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Inventories of all surveyed products except naphtha declined amid steep backwardation in the underlying crude futures market. Europe’s middle distillate markets have been affected particularly severely by the response on western governments to Russia’s military action in Ukraine, but there was little sign of a drop in Russian flows into ARA during the week, with some spot cargoes traded prior to sanctions being imposed on Moscow able to finish their journeys unhindered.

Low water levels, rising bunker fuel prices and firm demand supported freight rates on the river Rhine. The prospect of a further fall in water levels exerted pressure on traders to move barges inland.

Naphtha inventories rose to reach their highest levels since September 2021. Tankers carrying naphtha arrived in ARA from Algeria, Libya, Norway, Russia, the UK and the US.

Regional buyers are likely to turn to Mediterranean cargoes to replace naphtha from the Russian Baltic, which is becoming increasingly difficult to import because of finance restrictions and challenges securing vessels.

Stocks of all other products fell. Gasoil inventories dropped, with cargoes arriving from Russia and departing for the UK. The middle distillate markets are especially dependent on imported Russian cargoes, and European buyers are turning to sellers elsewhere to meet any shortfall.

Gasoline stocks fell to reach their lowest since January. The blending of summer-grade cargoes increased the volume of gasoline and components moving around the ARA area on barges, prompting some discharge delays. Seagoing tankers arrived in ARA with gasoline from Denmark, France, Portugal, Spain and the UK, and departed for Angola, Canada, South Africa, the UK, the US and west Africa.

Jet fuel stocks declined, with no cargoes arriving in ARA and at least one departing for the UK. Fuel oil stocks dropped, with cargoes arriving from Estonia, France, Ireland and Russia, and departing for the Mediterranean and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA Stocks Rise From Seven-Year Lows (Week 9 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose during the week to 2 March, having fallen to seven-year lows a week earlier, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Inventories of all surveyed products rose on the week, albeit from a notably low base. Steep backwardation particularly in the Ice gasoil forward curve brought inventories to their lowest since December 2014 at the end of February.

But market participants are now building stocks despite high prompt premiums across the barrel, owing to sudden uncertainty in the immediate future of supply from Russian outlets.

Northwest Europe is heavily dependent on some refined products from the Russian Baltic, and traders in the region have been working to guarantee their supply both from Russia and elsewhere while there are still spare cargoes on offer. Gasoline inventories were probably also supported by the need to begin producing summer-grade gasoline for export to the US.

Naphtha is a key blending component in summer-grade gasoline, and naphtha inventories almost doubled on the week, as cargoes arrived from Algeria, Greece, Norway, Russia, Spain and the US.

Gasoline stocks were supported by the arrival of cargoes from Finland, France, Germany, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK. The increase in gasoline blending activity prompted loading delays of several days for gasoline and component barges, particularly around the key blending hub of Amsterdam.

Gasoil stocks rose, despite barge flows from the ARA area to destinations along the river Rhine rising to four-week highs. Falling Rhine water levels have prompted some market participants inland to bring in gasoil from the ARA area despite the steep backwardation, purely in order to guarantee supply.

Seagoing tankers arrived in the ARA area from Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and departed for Denmark, France and west Africa.

Fuel oil inventories rose, supported by the arrival of cargoes from Estonia, Poland, Russia and the UK. No cargoes departed for destinations east of Suez, but tankers did depart for west Africa and the Mediterranean. Jet fuel stocks rose, and tankers departed for Sweden and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner