Independent ARA Stocks Hit Fresh Seven-Year Lows (Week 8 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 23 February to reach their lowest since December 2014, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Inventories of all surveyed products except gasoil fell on the week, bringing overall stock levels to fresh seven-year lows. Gasoil stocks rose, having reached their lowest since April 2014 a week earlier amid steep backwardation in the Ice gasoil market.

The slight rise in inventories was caused by a diminution of barge flows to destinations along the river Rhine, which fell to fresh one-year lows as market participants inland sought to avoid building up their own inventories. Gasoil cargoes arrived from Russia and Qatar, and departed for Argentina, Germany and the UK.

Inventories of all other products fell during the week. Gasoline stocks ticked down, weighed down by a rise in flows to the US. Tankers also departed for Angola, Argentina, Canada, the Mediterranean, Mexico and west Africa.

The level of barge activity appeared to increase on the week, as market participants worked to produce export cargoes. Tankers containing finished grade gasoline and components arrived from Finland, France, Poland, Portugal and the UK.

Naphtha stocks fell heavily, weighed down by the increase in gasoline blending activity, to reach their lowest since June 2016 despite the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Italy, Norway and the UK.

Naphtha consumption within the ARA was supported by the demand from gasoline blenders. Jet fuel stocks fell, amid a rise in demand as easing Covid-19 restrictions combined with school holidays to increase the level of civil aviation. A single cargo arrived from India while at least one departed for Norway.

Fuel oil stocks fell to reach their lowest since March 2020. Tankers arrived from Germany, the Mediterranean, Russia, Sweden and the UK, and departed for the Mediterranean and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA Product Stocks Hit Seven-Year Lows (Week 7 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 16 February, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Inventories of all surveyed products except jet fuel fell on the week, bringing overall stock levels to their lowest since December 2014. Gasoil stocks fell to their lowest since April that year, amid steep backwardation in the Ice gasoil market.

Market participants around northwest Europe have been seeking to draw down their gasoil inventories in response to relatively low forward prices, even reducing production to avoid accumulating more product in tank.

Flows of gasoil from the ARA area to destinations along the river Rhine fell to their lowest in a year as a result, as market participants inland sought to avoid bringing in any more material than necessary.

Tankers departed the ARA area for Argentina, the UK, Uruguay and the US.

Flows of gasoline component barges into the ARA area rose in contrast, as traders worked to produce cargoes of finished-grade gasoline to send to west Africa.

The rejection of around five cargoes of European gasoline by Nigerian authorities early in February stimulated blenders to create several replacement cargoes, supporting prices of gasoline and blending component naphtha.

Tankers arrived from Denmark, France, Ireland, Portugal, Russia, Spain and the UK, and departed for east Africa, the Mediterranean, Panama, the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks fell heavily as a result of the rise in gasoline blending activity, dropping by more than a quarter. No tankers departed the region and cargoes arrived from Algeria, Norway, Russia, the UK and the US.

Jet fuel stocks were the only surveyed product group to record a week on week rise, increasing. A single cargo arrived from Finland while one also departed for the UK.

Steady bunker fuel demand helped bring fuel oil stocks down on the week to reach their lowest since March 2020.

Tankers departed the region for the Caribbean and the Mediterranean.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA Product Stocks Fall (Week 6 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 9 February, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Inventories of most surveyed product groups were broadly steady on the week, with the total dragged lower by a heavier decline in fuel oil stocks. Fuel oil inventories fell, with cargoes departing for the Mediterranean and the UAE.

Fuel oil stock levels are typically more volatile than those of other products as the average cargo size is larger, particularly for exports. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Denmark, Estonia, France, Poland and Russia.

Overall inventory levels in the region were not significantly affected by a cyberattack on some storage terminals which began on 29 January.

Market participants suggested that the affected terminals had returned to normal operations by yesterday.

Gasoil stocks rose slightly, but remained close to the eight-year lows recorded a week earlier. Steep backwardation in the Ice gasoil market means there is little incentive to store cargoes, and tankers departed the region for Denmark, France, the UK and the US, in a reversal of the usual flow of trade in the north Atlantic.

The flow of barges to destinations along the river Rhine fell on the week, with terminals along the Rhine more greatly affected by the cyber-attack than those in the ARA area. Cargoes arrived from Russia and Sweden.

Gasoline stocks fell back from 10-month highs. There was some limited increase in the movement of blending components, following the rejection by Nigerian authorities of several gasoline cargoes during the week.

Tankers arrived into the region from France, Finland, Spain, Italy, Sweden and the UK, and departed for Argentina and Canada.

Naphtha stocks in ARA rose, to reach their highest level since early December. Demand from along the river Rhine was low, with some petrochemical producers in the region currently minimising their intake of naphtha owing to its high price relative to lighter alternatives. Tankers arrived from Algeria, Norway, Russia, the UK and the US, while none departed.

Jet fuel stocks were broadly steady for the third consecutive week, with no cargoes arriving and none departing.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA gasoil stocks hit fresh lows (week 5 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose during the week to 2 February, but gasoil stocks fell to their lowest in almost eight years, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Inventory levels in the region were not significantly affected by a cyberattack on some storage terminals which began on 29 January. The extent of the disruption in the ARA area remains limited, with many terminal operators finding ways to avoid completely halting the loading and discharge of oil products.

But the effect on inventory levels and oil product prices could potentially increase quickly without a swift resolution to the problem.

The impact of the cyberattack would have been more severe if so much of the regions tank capacity was currently not in use. Total inventories suggests that only around of the region’s independent storage capacity is currently in use. Gasoil stocks fell to their lowest since April 2014, amid steep backwardation in the Ice gasoil market.

Inflows of diesel and other middle distillates fell in January, reducing supply and bringing prompt prices up relative to values further along the forward curve. Cargoes arrived in the ARA area from Latvia, Russia and Qatar, and departed for the Mediterranean and the UK.

Firm demand for diesel from the German hinterland supported barge flows from the ARA up the river Rhine.

Gasoline stocks moved the other way, gaining on the week to reach their highest since April 2021. Tankers arrived into the region from France, Italy, Latvia, Portugal, Russia and the UK, and blending activity appeared robust.

Gasoline inventories typically rise during the first quarter as part of a seasonal restocking, but an increase in demand from west Africa may also be offering a temporary boost to stocks of finished-grade material. Tankers departed for Argentina, the Mediterranean, the UAE, the US and west Africa.

Naphtha stocks in ARA fell, weighed down by demand from gasoline blenders and a slowdown in inflows from the US Gulf coast. Tankers arrived from Portugal, Russia, Spain, the UK and the US while none departed.

Jet fuel stocks were virtually unchanged on the week, with one cargo arriving from Finland and one departing for the UK. And fuel oil inventories rose, supported by the arrival of cargoes from Denmark, Estonia, Russia and the UK. Cargoes also departed for the Mediterranean and west Africa.

Reporter Thomas Warner

Independent ARA gasoline, gasoil stocks rise (week 2 – 2022)

Independently-held gasoline and gasoil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose in the week, but overall stocks fell, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

A fall in gasoline demand from the US — a key outlet for gasoline produced in ARA — brought regional inventories to their highest since June. The fall in exports has also reduced demand within the ARA area for barges moving finished-grade material and components around the region. Lower demand for barges and a rise in Rhine water levels has caused barge freight rates in ARA and the Rhine to fall heavily in the first weeks of this year, after they reached multi-year highs in fourth quarter of 2021.

Gasoil barges bookings from the ARA area to destinations along the river Rhine rose during the week, albeit from a very low base as many operators were still off in the first weeks of January. There was no rush to take advantage of the heavy fall in barge freight rates, as backwardation in the gasoil market structure gave traders little incentive to refill their inland storage tanks. Seagoing tankers arrived in ARA from Finland and Russia, and departed for France, Spain and the UK.

Stocks of all other surveyed products fell. Naphtha inventories fell, with a rise in flows to regional petrochemical sites more than offsetting the arrival of cargoes into the region from Norway, Russia, Spain and the UK.

Jet fuel stocks fell, staying broadly steady on the week with one cargo arriving from Spain and one departing for the UK. Fewer jet fuel cargoes are reaching Europe from the Middle East, as demand improves east of Suez, particularly in Dubai. Some vessels originally bound for ARA have diverted across the Atlantic to the US, cutting further into European supply.

Fuel oil stocks fell heavily, dropping by 11pc to reach their lowest since early November 2021, with cargoes departing for the Caribbean, the Mediterranean and the US. Cargoes arrived from Germany, Russia, Sweden and the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA oil product stocks rise (week 1 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose over the past week, supported by a fall in gasoline exports.

Rising gasoline inventories in the US are reducing the demand for imported European cargoes, and in turn supporting inventories in the ARA area.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show ARA gasoline stocks increased in the week to 5 January, with no cargoes departing for the US and several tankers of finished-grade material and components arriving in the region from Ireland, Italy, Russia, Sweden and the UK.

Rising gasoline supply in northwest Europe has reduced naphtha demand from regional gasoline blenders in ARA, boosting naphtha stocks in the area on the week.

As well as the lack of blending demand, inventories were supported by the arrival of naphtha cargoes from the US Gulf coast, Russia and Spain. Northwest European naphtha refining margins rose to six-year highs during December, drawing in cargoes from outside the region.

Stocks of all other surveyed oil product groups were broadly steady. The amount of gasoil moving up the river Rhine on barges fell on the week, helping stocks tick up.

Barge freight costs on the Rhine and in the ARA area slumped, as rising Rhine water levels meant fewer barges. Some of the excess barge supply was able to move north into the ARA area, easing the congestion and loading delays that was seen in previous weeks.

Tankers carrying gasoil arrived in ARA from Finland, Russia and Qatar, and departed for Argentina, Spain and the UK.

ARA jet fuel stocks edged down on the week, with regional supply and demand appearing to be well-balanced. No tankers arrived or departed ARA carrying jet fuel.

Fuel oil stocks were also steady, rising, with cargoes arriving from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia and the UK, and departing for the Mediterranean and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA oil product stocks hit seven-year lows (week 50 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell during the week to 15 December, reaching their lowest since December 2014.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show total inventories fell during the week to 15 December, as a rise in Rhine water levels prompted a sharp increase in barge flows to destinations inland.

This effect was most pronounced on gasoil inventories, which fell to their lowest since May 2014 as low tanker inflows to the ARA area combined with the highest upriver flow of gasoil barges since mid-2020. Rhine water levels have been chronically low during the fourth quarter, but a temporary increase this week has eased loading restrictions and prompted market participants to move as much cargo in land as they can before loading restrictions are reimposed.

Loading restrictions on the Rhine force traders to use more barges, increasing costs. Seagoing tankers arrived from Oman, Russia and Qatar and departed for France, Portugal and the UK.

Gasoline inventories were also affected by changes in the regional barge market. Congestion at various terminals around the ARA area caused the return of loading delays, which had been easing since the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19.

Tankers arrived from Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK, and departed for Angola, the Caribbean, the US and west Africa. Inventory levels fell back, having reached five-month highs the previous week.

Naphtha stocks fell for the second consecutive week, reaching their lowest since July 2021. Imports fell, with only Algeria and Russia sending cargoes. Barge flows from storage tanks to destinations along the Rhine rose on the week, as petrochemical producers sought to bring in feedstocks while there are no loading restrictions on the river.

ARA jet fuel stocks fell on the week, with Rhine flows well supported and a rare cargo departing for Norway, in addition to the usual flows to the UK and Ireland. Regional airports are likely to be stocking up ahead of the seasonal rise in transport fuel demand. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from India, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Fuel oil stocks fell, with at least one Suezmax departing for Singapore. Tankers arrived from France, Georgia, Poland, Russia, Spain and the UK. Demand for fuel oil from bunker suppliers was firm, probably supported by the uptick in the use of barges.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

ARA oil product stocks hit three-month highs (week 49 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose during the week to 8 December, reaching their highest since mid-September.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show total inventories rose during the week to 8 December, continuing the upward trend recorded since stocks hit seven-year lows in late November.

The discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 in the second half of November contributed to a dimming of the demand outlook for gasoline.

This brought the forward curve into a brief contango, having been steeply backwardated since the summer. Gasoline inventories consequently rose to five-month highs, recording their highest week-on-week percentage rise since June 2019.

Gasoline market participants took advantage of a temporary rise in Rhine water levels to bring in blending components from refineries inland, and tankers also arrived with blending components or finished-grade material from Latvia, Russia, Estonia, France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Outflows to the US and west Africa were steady at a low level, and tankers also departed for Brazil, the Caribbean, the Mediterranean and Mexico.

Gasoil stocks also rose. The volume of middle distillates heading inland on barges rose on the week in response to the temporary rise in Rhine water levels. Market participants inland sought to build stocks of diesel and heating oil ahead of peak winter demand season for the latter. Tankers arrived in the ARA area from Russia and Qatar, and departed for France and the Mediterranean.

Naphtha stocks fell, supported by firm demand from northwest European gasoline blenders and petrochemical end-users during the week to 8 December. Cargoes arrived from Algeria, Russia, Spain and the UK.

ARA jet fuel stocks rose on the week, as the volume departing for the UK dwindled relative to the levels seen in recent weeks. The tightening of Covid restrictions in the UK may be affecting the outlook for jet fuel consumption, while at least one cargo of jet fuel arrived in the area from the UAE.

Fuel oil stocks fell. Tankers arrived from the Black Sea, Russia and the UK and departed for the Mediterranean and west Africa.

Reporter Thomas Warner

ARA oil product stocks tick up from seven-year lows (week 48 – 2021)

Independently-held oil product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose during the week to 1 December, having reached their lowest since December 2014 the previous week.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show total inventories rose in the week to 2 December. The overall rise was led by a increase in fuel oil stocks, supported by the arrival of cargoes from Estonia, France, Russia, Sweden and the UK. The arbitrage route from northwest Europe to Asia-Pacific for very low sulphur fuel oil is open, and the Suezmax Front Silkeborg departed the ARA area for Asia-Pacific.

Another Suezmax is scheduled to load, and at least one VLCC has also been provisionally booked on the route. Smaller tankers departed the ARA area for the Mediterranean and the US.

Gasoil was the only surveyed product to record a week on week fall in stock levels. Barge flows of middle distillates into the European hinterland fell on the week, with very low water levels on the river Rhine, but seagoing inflows from Russia, Sweden and the US comprised mostly part cargoes and MR tankers, and tanker outflows to the UK and France rose on the week.

Covid-related restrictions on freedom of movement are relatively relaxed in the UK and France compared with some other northwest European markets, which may be supporting end-user demand for diesel in the two countries.

Stocks of all other surveyed products rose. Gasoline inventories increased, supported by the arrival of cargoes from the Baltics, Finland, France and the UK. Outflows to the US fell on the week, while tankers also departed for Brazil, China, Mexico and west Africa.

Gasoline blending activity has reduced in the ARA area since the discovery of the Omicron coronavirus variant in late November, which in turn helped clear the congestion that had plagued the region throughout the fourth quarter.

Naphtha stocks rose, supported by the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Russia, the UK and the US. Demand from petrochemical end-users along the river Rhine ticked down on the week, weighed down by the low liquidity caused by the sharp day on day moves in outright naphtha prices following the discovery of the Omicron Covid variant. Demand from gasoline blenders fell even more sharply, as the outlook for gasoline consumption suddenly darkened.

ARA jet fuel stocks were essentially unchanged on the week. The volume of jet fuel moving inland on barges fell on the week, following a period of stockbuilding at regional airports.

No tankers arrived in the ARA area while several departed for the UK and Ireland.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Independent ARA product rise from three-year lows (week 46 – 2021)

Independently-held oil products stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub rose during the week, having reached their lowest since 2018 a week earlier.

Data from consultancy Insights Global show overall inventories rose on the week, with stocks of all surveyed products except jet fuel rising.

Jet fuel stocks fell to their lowest since August 2020, with an increase in jet fuel demand caused by the reopening of routes to the US. A representative of trading house Trafigura said at the International Air Transport Association (Iata) aviation fuel forum last week that the supply/demand balance has turned on its head since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, when the global jet fuel market was oversupplied.

Stocks of all other surveyed products rose. Gasoil inventories rose on the week, supported by a rise in inflows from the Russian port of Primorsk. Tankers also arrived in the ARA area from Finland and Latvia, and departed for Brazil, Germany, Ireland and the UK. Demand for diesel appears to be waning in northwest Europe, with several countries reporting seasonal month on month falls from September to October.

Gasoline stocks rose, also supported by a seasonal fall in demand. Outflows from the ARA area to key export market the US Atlantic coast fell on the week, with inventories in the latter region holding up ahead of the Thanksgiving and Christmas peaks in demand.

Atlantic coast stocks gained.

Barge freight costs in the ARA area and along the river Rhine continued to rise during the week, owing to a lack of available barges. Congestion in the gasoline blending component barge market eased off, after delays of up to two weeks for discharge and loading were reported in October.

Tankers also departed for the Mediterranean, the US and west Africa, and arrived from Denmark, France, Italy, Latvia, Poland and the UK.

Naphtha stocks rose by more than a third, having fallen to their lowest since February 2020 the previous week. Barge flows of naphtha to petrochemical facilities around northwest Europe rose on the week, but the increase in barge outflows was surpassed by the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, France, Norway, Russia, the UK and the US.

Fuel oil stocks rose, after reaching their lowest since March 2020 the previous week. Cargoes arrived from France, Germany and Russia, and departed for the Mediterranean, the UK and west Africa.