Shell expects 50% rise in global LNG demand by 2040

Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as China and countries in South and Southeast Asia use LNG to support their economic growth, Shell said on Wednesday.

The market remains “structurally tight”, with prices and price volatility remaining above historic averages, constraining growth, the world’s largest LNG trader said in its 2024 annual LNG market outlook.

Demand for natural gas has peaked in some regions, including Europe, Japan and Australia in the 2010s, but continues to rise globally, and is expected to reach around 625-685 million metric tons per year in 2040, Shell said. That is slightly lower than Shell’s 2023 estimates of a global demand increase to 700 million tons by 2040.

“While things are relatively balanced and seemed relatively comfortable today, the market is still quite fragile,” Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, told analysts on a call following the outlook report.

“We have a structurally tight market that’s been balanced by near-term market weakness for where we see fragility and volatility continuing,” Hill said.

CHINA DOMINANCE

Shell said that global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as China and countries in South and Southeast Asia use LNG to support their economic growth.

China, which in 2023 overtook Japan as the world’s top LNG importer, is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas, the report said.

“China is the market that we are most bullish about this decade. And one of the reasons for that is the massive amount of new gas infrastructure that is coming on stream at the moment,” Hill told analysts.

China’s 2024 LNG imports are expected to rebound to nearly 80 million tons, from about 70 million tons in 2023, according to ICIS and Rystad forecasts, surpassing 2021’s record 78.79 million tons.

From 2030 to 2040, declining domestic gas production in parts of South Asia and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry.

Shell’s report predicted a balance between rising demand and new supply for those regions, but said significant investments would be needed in gas import infrastructure.

“In the medium term, latent demand for LNG – especially in Asia – is set to consume new supply that is expected to come on to the market in the second half of the 2020s,” the report said.

As supplies were ample last year as the world market started to recover from the major disruption linked to the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022, prices have eased.

Asian spot prices averaged around $18 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2023, easing from an all-time high of $70/mmBtu in 2022.

Prices fell further this year and remain below $10/mmBtu, encouraging buyers from China to Bangladesh to lock in new term supplies from Qatar and the United States.

Hill said that long-term LNG contracts which Europe has signed so far will not fill a demand-supply gap for the rest of this decade, adding that there was a structural shortage of 50 million to 70 million metric tons a year for the rest of the decade or more that Europe needs to secure.

In the U.S. market, he said that an extended ban on new LNG export projects would have “quite an impact” on the fast-growing global market.

The ban “is probably okay if it lasts a year or so, but if it was a long-term ban, then it would have quite an impact on the market,” Hill told analysts.

By Reuters / Marwa Rashad, Emily Chow and Ron Bousso , February 14, 2024

BP readies green diesel refinery for take off as $10 billion sustainable aviation market looms

Plans by one of the world’s biggest oil and gas businesses to build a new biodiesel refinery in Kwinana have been lodged for development approval.

BP wants to revive the site of its old oil refinery with new green energy projects, including a potentially $1 billion plant to make green diesel and sustainable aviation fuel from vegetable oils, animal fats and other waste products. That could be followed by a hydrogen facility next door.

H2Kwinana, a green hydrogen project, is part of BP’s plans to transition its former oil refinery site in Kwinana into an energy hub. The project proposes the production of green hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO), and integration of planned biorefinery and green hydrogen production facilities with BP’s operating import terminal and optimization of the existing site assets.

According to BP, H2Kwinana has secured government support and is now advancing to front-end engineering and design (FEED).

“We aim to install 100 MW of electrolyzer capacity fuelled by reclaimed water renewable energy. The green hydrogen produced could then be used to decarbonize the bio-refinery we’re planning and other industrial facilities in the area,” the company stated.

In April 2022, the Commonwealth Government granted funding of up to $70 million for the H2Kwinana green hydrogen project, and in 2023, BP began leveraging its site infrastructure and repurposing some redundant processing units to advance the biorefinery project.

BP also completed a concept development phase study into its energy hub H2Kwinana and identified two potential base case scenarios, with the hub producing either 44 tonnes per day of green hydrogen or 143 tonnes per day. The potential growth target of 429 tonnes per day was selected as the third and final case.

Following the study, engineering and technology company Technip Energies was awarded a contract for a hydrogen production unit at BP’s Kwinana biorefinery.

The contract covers the engineering, procurement and fabrication (EPF) of a modularized hydrogen production unit with a capacity of 33,000 normal m3/hour, using Technip Energies’ SMR proprietary technology.

The unit will be capable of producing hydrogen from either natural gas or biogas produced by the Kwinana biorefinery.

By Acapmag / Sourced Externally, February 14, 2024

As gas prices rise, oil refinery issues impact what drivers pay at pump

“We’ve gone from $2.63 late last week back up to $3.03 a gallon. So, it’s a huge jump,” Head of Petroleum Analysis for Gas Buddy Patrick De Haan said about the average price of gas in Milwaukee.

He tells CBS 58 the change is due to a power outage closing an Indiana oil refinery earlier this month, coupled with increased oil prices.

“So, we’ve just had several weeks of news that has been pushing the wholesale price of gasoline up,” he explained.

But he said the worst is yet to come.

“We’re also coming into a time of year where we usually start to see gas prices going up. Usually, after Valentine’s Day is over, we get the seasonality that really comes into play,” De Haan said.

With warmer weather inching closer, De Haan said once the refinery – which produces 10 million gallons of gasoline a day – reopens, drivers might see prices go down, but not for long.

“Demand starts to go up as motorists start to get out more and more. We [will] already start the transition to cleaner, more expensive summer gasoline in the next couple of weeks, plus other refineries will be doing maintenance before the summer driving season, and it’s just a matter of time before we see some of these $3 gas prices disappear,” he said.

If you want to save at the pump, you are encouraged to keep up with your car maintenance, plan your routes, and enroll in fuel rewards programs.

 By cbs58/ Stephanie Rodriguez , February 12, 2024

Introducing First-Ever Mobile Coating Robots to the U.S. Oil & Gas Industry

A leader in surface preparation solutions, is thrilled to announce its exclusive USA distribution partnership with Dutch innovator Qlayers™. This partnership marks the introduction of the first-ever mobile coating robots, specifically designed for remote field projects in the oil & gas industry.

The 10Q robots, developed by Qlayers, are a pioneering solution in industrial coating, offering unparalleled efficiency and safety benefits. Before their U.S. introduction, these robots had already garnered significant international interest for their superiority over traditional hand-coating methods. Key advantages include:

Unmatched Efficiency: Capable of applying multiple protective coating layers much faster than human teams, the 10Q robots dramatically accelerate project timelines.

Enhanced Safety: These robots significantly mitigate fall risks by reducing human working hours at heights by up to 85%.

Optimal Paint Usage: The robots’ automated coating method drastically reduces overspray resulting in up to 50% paint savings.

Precision Application: Ensuring consistent coating thickness, robots excel in delivering precise feathering between rows.

Eco-Friendly Technology: The patented spray shielding system significantly reduces the release of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and microplastics into the greater environment.

Complementing BlastOne’s revolutionary tank solutions, including the VertiDrive™ abrasive blasting robots for surface preparation, the 10Q robots represent a significant leap in industrial coating efficiency and safety. “We are excited about our partnership with Qlayers,” said Matthew Rowland, CEO of BlastOne. “The 10Q robots are not just innovative; they’re transformative for large tank coating projects in the U.S.”

Qlayers, based in the Netherlands, specializes in advanced robotic solutions for coating large-scale industrial assets, including storage tanks, wind turbines, and ships. The 10Q robot stands as the industry’s leading automated coating solution tailored to maximize cost-efficiency and safety for both storage tank owners and coating contractors.

Josefien Groot, Co-founder and CEO of Qlayers, expressed her enthusiasm during the grand opening of BlastOne’s Houston office, where the partnership agreement was officially signed. “This partnership signifies a crucial step in our mission to revolutionize the industry. We’re confident that BlastOne’s expertise will be instrumental in the widespread adoption of this technology.”

The revolutionary 10Q robots are now available for purchase or rental throughout the U.S. exclusively through BlastOne. With locations from Washington state to New Jersey, and from California to Florida, BlastOne’s geographic network was designed to serve industrial corrosion control companies across the nation.

By: BlastOne International, February 12, 2024

Diamondback, Endeavor Energy in talks to create $50 billion company, sources say

U.S. shale oil rivals Diamondback Energy (FANG.O), opens new tab and Endeavor Energy Resources are close to finalizing a roughly $25 billion cash-and-stock deal that would create an oil and gas company valued at more than $50 billion, sources said on Sunday.

Diamondback could announce a transaction as soon as Monday that would give its shareholders more than half of the combined companies, the people said, which would become the largest, pure-play oil producer in the Permian shale field.

Reuters in December reported that Endeavor Energy Partners was exploring a sale that could value the largest privately held oil and gas producer in the Permian basin at between $25 billion and $30 billion.

Endeavor and Diamondback did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The combined company would be the third-largest oil and gas producer in the Permian, the top U.S. oilfield that straddles West Texas and New Mexico. Its oil and gas volumes would be behind Exxon Mobil  and Chevron, which have announced recent deals

PRESSURE TO COMBINE

“This is a layup in terms of the acreage overlap and fit,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners. The combined company would replace Pioneer Natural Resources, which is being acquired by Exxon, as the top solely Permian producer, he said.

Permian producers are consolidating in a race to lock in future drilling inventory and output from the top U.S. oilfield. The deal is likely to put additional pressure on the remaining firms to combine for greater efficiencies and scale, analysts said.

But future deals are unlikely to match the sheer size of Permian shale deals in recent months, said Andrew Dittmar, a senior vice president at data analytics firm Enverus. He ruled out any competing bids for Endeavor.

Diamondback’s use of cash and stock will allow Endeavor founder Autry Stephens and family to retain a major role in the largest oil company in Midland, Texas, where both companies are based, said Dittmar.

“Their (drilling) inventory is extremely high quality that will make the combined companies a very attractive investment on Wall Street. I imagine it will be well received by the market on Monday,” he said.

Diamondback fended off competition from other parties including ConocoPhillips (COP.N), opens new tab, the Wall Street Journal earlier reported.

The sale would come almost 45 years after Texas oilman Stephens started the company that would become Endeavor.

Endeavor’s operations span 350,000 acres (1,416 square kilometers) in the Midland portion of the Permian Basin.

Stephens, a former appraisals engineer who became more known through his appearances on the TV documentary series Black Gold, grew Endeavor by acquiring the unloved acreage of his competitors and managing to extract oil and gas profitably.

To lower his production costs, Stephens created and used his own fracking, construction, trucking and other services companies.

Reporting by Utkarsh Shetti in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Gary McWilliams in Houston; Editing by Josie Kao, Mark Porter and Diane Craft.

By Reuters / Anirban Sen, February 11, 2024

Dow announces completion of inaugural green bond offering

The Dow Chemical Company (“TDCC”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Dow (NYSE: DOW), announced today the closing of its green bond offering of $600 million aggregate principal amount of 5.150% notes due 2034 and $650 million aggregate principal amount of 5.600% notes due 2054.

The notes represent the Company’s inaugural green financing instrument, in alignment with Dow’s Green Finance Framework (“Framework”) published on our website on January 25, 2024. The Framework was established to support the execution of Dow’s sustainability strategy and achieve its targets focused on climate protection and a circular economy. Dow intends to allocate proceeds from this offering toward projects that meet eligibility criteria contained within the Framework, including expenditures and investments related to our Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta Path2Zero project. Additional details on eligibility criteria and use of proceeds are available in the Framework.

“This green bond offering marks a foundational opportunity for investors to participate in Dow’s strategy to decarbonize and drive circularity while growing earnings over the cycle,” said Jeff Tate, Dow’s chief financial officer. “We expect the proceeds of this instrument to primarily support our project to build the world’s first net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions ethylene and derivates complex in Alberta, which achieved the critical milestone of final investment decision from our Board in November 2023.”

In 2020, Dow announced its intention to be carbon neutral for Scopes 1+2+3 plus product benefits by 2050. The commitment included a mid-term target to reduce by 2030 the Company’s Scope 1 and 2 net annual carbon emissions[1] by 5 million metric tons versus its 2020 baseline. Achieving this 2030 target represents a total 30% emissions reduction versus Dow’s 2005 level.

Additionally in 2022, Dow announced its Transform the Waste strategy – which will enable the development of circular ecosystems by transforming plastic waste and alternative feedstock to commercialize 3 million metric tons per year of circular and renewable solutions by 2030.

 Carbon emissions refers to GHG emissions in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).

Cautionary Statement about Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this press release are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such statements often address expected future business and financial performance, financial condition, and other matters, and often contain words or phrases such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “opportunity,” “outlook,” “plan,” “project,” “seek,” “should,” “strategy,” “target,” “will,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” “would” and similar expressions, and variations or negatives of these words or phrases.

Forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that are beyond Dow’s control, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, anticipated or implied in the forward-looking statements and speak only as of the date the statements were made. These factors include, but are not limited to: sales of Dow’s products; Dow’s expenses, future revenues and profitability; any global and regional economic impacts of a pandemic or other public health-related risks and events on Dow’s business; any sanctions, export restrictions, supply chain disruptions or increased economic uncertainty related to the ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East; capital requirements and need for and availability of financing; unexpected barriers in the development of technology, including with respect to Dow’s contemplated capital and operating projects; Dow’s ability to realize its commitment to carbon neutrality on the contemplated timeframe, including the completion and success of its integrated ethylene cracker and derivatives facility in Alberta, Canada; size of the markets for Dow’s products and services and ability to compete in such markets; failure to develop and market new products and optimally manage product life cycles; the rate and degree of market acceptance of Dow’s products; significant litigation and environmental matters and related contingencies and unexpected expenses; the success of competing technologies that are or may become available; the ability to protect Dow’s intellectual property in the United States and abroad; developments related to contemplated restructuring activities and proposed divestitures or acquisitions such as workforce reduction, manufacturing facility and/or asset closure and related exit and disposal activities, and the benefits and costs associated with each of the foregoing; fluctuations in energy and raw material prices; management of process safety and product stewardship; changes in relationships with Dow’s significant customers and suppliers; changes in public sentiment and political leadership; increased concerns about plastics in the environment and lack of a circular economy for plastics at scale; changes in consumer preferences and demand; changes in laws and regulations, political conditions or industry development; global economic and capital markets conditions, such as inflation, market uncertainty, interest and currency exchange rates, and equity and commodity prices; business or supply disruptions; security threats, such as acts of sabotage, terrorism or war, including the ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East; weather events and natural disasters; disruptions in Dow’s information technology networks and systems, including the impact of cyberattacks; and risks related to Dow’s separation from DowDuPont Inc. such as Dow’s obligation to indemnify DuPont de Nemours, Inc. and/or Corteva, Inc. for certain liabilities.

Where, in any forward-looking statement, an expectation or belief as to future results or events is expressed, such expectation or belief is based on the current plans and expectations of management and expressed in good faith and believed to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that the expectation or belief will result or be achieved or accomplished. A detailed discussion of principal risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results and events to differ materially from such forward-looking statements is included in the section titled “Risk Factors” contained in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and the Company’s subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. These are not the only risks and uncertainties that Dow faces. There may be other risks and uncertainties that Dow is unable to identify at this time or that Dow does not currently expect to have a material impact on its business. If any of those risks or uncertainties develops into an actual event, it could have a material adverse effect on Dow’s business. Dow Inc. and The Dow Chemical Company (“TDCC”) assume no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by securities and other applicable laws.

By corporate.dow/ The Dow Chemical Company, February 9, 2024

Bridging the Hydrogen Gap: Advario’s Plan for Ammonia Storage to Link Production and Demand

Tank storage and logistics provider Advario plans to build an ammonia import terminal in the Port of Antwerp-Bruges. The Hydrogen Council leadership team visited and toured Advario Gas Terminal (AGT).

The market for hydrogen is global, with significant demand in countries that have lower production potential. These countries will look to others for supply. To facilitate this international trade and match demand with supply, the energy transport, storage and logistics sector is of crucial importance. But transporting large quantities of hydrogen across distances is challenging. Hydrogen carriers, such as ammonia, are part of the solution… but also require dedicated infrastructure and safe handling.

Hydrogen Council member Advario, an internationally operating energy storage and logistics provider, aims to bridge international supply and demand. “We believe in the future of hydrogen, as a key part of the clean energy mix, and in ammonia, as one of the better hydrogen carrier solutions,” says Sjoerd Boer, Vice President New Energies at Advario. “We are well placed, with a global portfolio that includes countries with significant (green) hydrogen production potential, such as the United States, Middle East and Australia, and geographies that will have high demand, such as Europe.”

Advario’s two Belgian terminals, Advario Gas Terminal (AGT) and Advario Stolthaven Antwerp (ASA), are in advanced stages of a feasibility study, executed together with their partner Fluxys. The study explores the build of an ammonia import terminal in Antwerp.

And that’s where Hydrogen in Action takes you. Last Friday, Hydrogen Council Directors Steven Libbrect, Daria Nochevnik and Andrei Tchouvelev visited Advario’s AGT terminal. During the visit, we talked about the important role hydrogen carriers as ammonia play in the development of a hydrogen economy, the European need for import- and export facilities for ammonia, and Advario’s ambition to build ammonia storage facilities at one – or perhaps at some point both – of its terminals in the Port of Antwerp-Bruges. The visit closed with a site tour of AGT.

Safety was the main topic of conversation throughout the visit. The import, export and storage of ammonia needs to be handled by an experienced, safe operator. “I enjoyed our discussions and liked what I saw at AGT,” says Andrei Tchouvelev, Director Safety & Regulatory at the Hydrogen Council. “The site does not store ammonia yet, so I focused on getting a feel for the safety culture, overall level of maintenance and the way the team prepares for the potential addition of ammonia storage. The Advario team at AGT is obviously well-prepared, possesses the know-how with regards to technology and engineering capability, and is well-aware of the nature of ammonia. I am impressed.”

Michel Ruttens, Advario’s Vice President of Technology, agrees. Michel: “I am appreciative of Andrei’s kind words, and the interest and engagement of Andrei, Steven [Libbrecht] and Daria [Nochevnik]. Advario knows what it takes to safely and efficiently handle ammonia. At our terminal in Nanjing, China, we have designed, built and operated a large-scale ammonia storage facility, which has been operational since 2017. Pairing that with AGT’s experience safely handling a wide variety of gases and strong track record operating refrigerated storage, we look forward to taking the next step, and contribute to the further development of the hydrogen ecosystem.”

By Hydrogen Council, February 09, 2024

Energy Transition and the Global South

The World Economic Forum seeks to accelerate clean energy investment and opportunities in emerging markets; sees need for up to $2.8 trillion by 2030s.

Investors seeking clean energy investment opportunities globally are eyeing a new initiative announced at the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland, last month that could help put a spotlight on developing economies’ clean energy needs and their potential projects.

The WEF outlined the creation of a new platform designed to aid developing economies. In the “Network to Mobilize Clean Energy Investment for the Global South,” more than 20 CEOs and government ministers from countries including Colombia, Egypt, India, Malaysia, Nigeria and South Africa, will work together in an attempt to “accelerate clean energy capital solutions in emerging market contexts,” according to the announcement.

The WEF further described a collaborative approach that includes “innovative policies, new business models, de-risking tools and finance mechanisms,” as well as a place to “exchange best practices for attracting sustainable flows of clean energy capital.”

Whitney Sweeney, an investment director for sustainability at Schroders who is based in New York City, is hopeful that attempts such as the WEF’s platform can help investors better understand, and potentially mitigate, investment risks that could eventually lead to greater interest in clean energy investments in developing countries.

“It’s early and a little light on details, but it’s absolutely a positive step toward accelerating the speed and scale of the energy transition,” Sweeney says. “There are opportunities, of course, but there are always risks when we’re talking about emerging markets. For while the potential for high returns exists, emerging markets also come with risks, including political instability, regulatory changes and currency volatility.”

WEF Seeking Triple the Investment

While clean energy investing has increased in recent years, it has been concentrated geographically and focused more on developed countries and China, with developing economies accounting for less than one-fifth of global clean energy investments, Sweeney notes. Such investing in developing countries in the Global South needs to triple and reach a range estimated from $2.2 trillion to $2.8 trillion annually by the early 2030s, up from the roughly $770 billion per year currently focused on such countries, according to the WEF.

While specifics have not yet been outlined, the WEF published a report at the same time the new platform was announced, “Building Trust through an Equitable and Inclusive Energy Transition,” that highlighted the importance of focusing investment in “countries, regions and communities where it can have maximum positive impact.” It also called for reimagining “established financing and investment approaches to bridge the gap between available capital and the needs of emerging and developing economies, as well as addressing energy poverty in advanced economies.” The report also suggested there may be a need for the creation of “regulatory and fiscal policies, and targeted interventions that address the needs of vulnerable communities.”

“If we’re going to have a successful realization of the energy transition, it’s going to rely very heavily on inclusivity,” Sweeney says.

Addressing risks is part of the aim of the new platform, according to Samaila Zubairu, president and CEO of the Africa Finance Corp., who together with Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt’s minister of international cooperation, will chair the network.

“The perception of high risk has deterred investments in emerging markets, particularly in Africa, over the years; yet, from where I sit, there is no shortage of de-risking instruments and bankable projects that not only deliver profitable returns but also accelerate development impact,” said Zubairu in a prepared statement. “Mobilizing investment for the energy transition is now more urgent. It is time for us to shift the narrative surrounding the financing of clean energy in the Global South from an aid case to a viable investment opportunity, without which we will not reach global net zero.”

Minimizing Increased Risks

Bruce Usher, a professor at the Columbia Business School and the faculty director of the Tamer Center for Social Enterprise, also sees the need to focus on boosting investment in developing countries, since the developed world is farther along in both reducing current emissions and limiting further emissions.

“The challenge is that in developing countries, commercial capital is not available for decarbonization,” Usher says. “The risks are greater in developing countries, as sovereign risk is high, especially foreign exchange risk.”

When it comes to climate change solutions, given the long-term nature of most clean-energy investments, a commensurate long-term currency risk is the most critical for investors to grapple with, Usher says. One of the challenges in the developing market is not just that the risks, such as sovereign and currency, may be higher, but also that there is a lack of experience for most commercial institutions. He sees the opportunity for blended finance or a public-private partnership to help ease concerns, should such an effort emerge from the new platform that could help attract capital while potentially reducing risks. While it is not clear exactly how the new platform will function, he suggests that a foreign exchange guarantee, for example, could match the life of renewable energy project investments.

“I would keep an eye on it, because when those tools are available, they’re going to open up some attractive opportunities,” Usher says.

By CIO / Elizabeth Harris, 02.07.2024

Aramco’s Production U-Turn will not Hit Demand for Oilfield Services, Analysts Say

Saudi Aramco’s production U-turn will not hit the demand for oilfield services and equipment in the kingdom, analysts have said.

Shares of major oilfield services companies dropped last week after Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporting company, scrapped plans to boost production capacity to 13 million barrels per day by 2027, from 12 million bpd currently.

Analysts say Aramco’s decision may have been influenced by factors such as escalating costs of developing new projects, ample spare capacity and weakening demand outlook for crude amid growing adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles.

At the moment, Saudi Arabia is only producing 9 million bpd as part of Opec+ supply cuts aimed at stabilising the oil market.

The announcement comes as oilfield services companies, which assist energy producers in drilling new oil and gas wells, are increasingly turning to the Middle East region to drive future growth, especially with the US shale sector facing a slowdown.

Analysts say Aramco will most likely defer expansion projects at the Safaniya and Manifa offshore oilfields in the Arabian Gulf. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Safaniya, 200km north of the city of Dhahran, is the world’s largest offshore oilfield in terms of recoverable resources.

Aramco was close to selecting preferred bidders for two large onshore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contracts at Safaniya, worth $5 billion, according to media reports last month.

Several oilfield services firms have a large exposure to the kingdom’s jack-up rig market. These rigs are used to drill wells in shallow waters.

“We think the market overreacted and the jack-up rig count will likely remain stable to modestly up in 2024, and other projects, including Marjan, Berri and Zuluf, will continue to move forward,” said James West, senior managing director at Evercore ISI.

Saudi Arabia was deploying 88 rigs as of January, up from 79 in the same period last year, according to Baker Hughes data.

Aramco, which plans to increase the Marjan and Berri fields’ output capacity by 550,000 bpd by next year, may adjust its capital expenditure target lower or increase spending on natural gas, Mr West said.

Aramco has said it would update its capital spending guidance when its full-year 2023 results are announced in March.

The company’s capital expenditure numbers have consistently increased over the past few years amid a growing focus on downstream operations and gas production.

Before reducing its output target, Aramco was expecting its capital expenditure for last year to be in the range of $45 billion to $55 billion, up from $37.6 billion in 2022. It stood at $31.9 billion in 2021 and $26.9 billion in 2022.

“We remain confident the long-duration offshore and international upcycle will continue and drive significant growth opportunities for oilfield services companies in 2024 [and beyond],” Mr West said.

The Big Three of oilfield services – Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes – recorded strong fourth quarter results, with higher oil prices boosting drilling activity in the US and international markets.

The companies are optimistic about the Middle East, where several national oil companies are planning to significantly increase their production in the next few years.

Schlumberger, whose shares fell nearly 10 per cent following Aramco’s announcement on January 30, said it was working “very closely” with the state-run energy giant and that, as per its understanding, only two offshore oil expansion projects that have not yet begun would be suspended.

“Our forecast for significant growth for 2024 in the kingdom remains intact,” said Olivier Le Peuch, the company’s chief executive.

“The combination of our revenue mix in the kingdom, which is weighted toward onshore and the expanding gas market, and our unique market position in other countries in the Middle East will continue to support the multi-year growth cycle in the region.

“Global energy demand continues to increase, and international production is expected to play a key role in meeting supply through the end of this decade.”

Halliburton and Baker Hughes declined to comment.

Expansion plans

Meanwhile, other Middle Eastern countries are pressing forward with plans to increase production.

UAE’s Adnoc is investing in its major onshore and offshore oilfields to increase crude production to 5 million bpd by 2027. The Abu Dhabi-based energy company also aims to reach gas self-sufficiency by 2030.

Kuwait plans to bring its oil production up to 3.2 million bpd by next year and 4 million bpd by 2035. It also aims to double its gas production in the longer term.

To achieve these goals, the Gulf country plans to invest $43 billion in oil and gas projects until 2027.

Iraq, Opec’s second-largest producer, is looking to boost its output to 7 million bpd by 2030.

“We saw several final investment decisions [in Iraq] last year and two new bid rounds opened,” said Alexandre Araman, principal analyst, Middle East upstream, at Wood Mackenzie. “Gas is also a priority with aggressive growth target, mainly thanks to projects to capture flared gas.”

Iraq remains the second-biggest country in terms of flaring after Russia, Mr Araman told The National.

By Thenationalnews / John Benny, 02.07.2024

EIA: Renewable Diesel Production to Expand By 30% Annually in 2024, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration currently expects renewable diesel production to increase by approximately 30% annually in both 2024 and 2025, according to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 6.

The EIA currently predicts renewable diesel production will average approximately 230,000 barrels per day in 2024, expanding to 290,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to the STEO. Production averaged approximately 200,000 barrels per day at the end of 2023.

In the STEO, the EIA also announced it is reducing its U.S. crude oil refining capacity forecast by 120,000 barrels per day beginning in March 2024 following reports that Phillips 66 plans to permanently stop processing crude oil at its Rodeo refinery in California next month. According to the EIA, the Rodeo facility previously produced approximately 60,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel and 65,000 barrels per day of motor gasoline. Phillips 66 is converting the facility to produce renewable diesel. Once that project is complete, the Rodeo biorefinery is expected to have the capacity to produce approximately 50,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel.

By Biomass Magazine / Erin Voegele , 02.07.2024