Big Oil’s Radical Proposal: Curtail Consumption, Not Production

Last year, in the middle of an energy crunch, European governments called on their citizens to consume less energy. They also lashed out at Big Oil for making billions from the squeeze.

Now, Big Oil is the one calling for a reduction in energy consumption. Essentially, supermajors have suggested that people should use less of their products. But they don’t want to slash production.

The seemingly paradoxical message came out earlier this week from a conference in Vienna, where OPEC leaders met with their Big Oil counterparts from BP, Shell, and other oil companies to discuss the future of global energy.

As might have been expected in this day and age, the message to come out of the gathering was that everyone is committed to a net-zero world in the future but that right now, everyone was committed to ensuring there is enough energy for those who need it, regardless of the source.

What was, perhaps, less expected was the reported call from Big Oil for governments to focus on demand reduction rather than supply limitation as a means of enabling that net-zero world. OPEC officials, meanwhile, focused on the importance of energy security as they have done before.

“We must do everything we can to reduce emissions, not to reduce energy,” OPEC secretary-general, Haitham al Ghais said, as quoted by Euronews. “There is a misconception going around about reducing production and reducing investment in oil and gas, we do not agree with that message.”

One would assume the reason OPEC disagrees with this message is that it would lead to lower profits for its members. But according to Big Oil, the motive for switching from a focus on supply to one on demand will avoid even higher profits for oil producers. Not that the executives put it quite this way.

The report on that call comes from Reuters, which was once again refused access to the conference but quoted sources present there. And that call follows statements made by Big Oil executives that they will slow down with their pivot away from their core business.

From an activist perspective, Big Oil is trying to justify its renewed focus on oil and gas at a time when oil and gas are making record profits. From an energy security perspective, it is difficult to argue that reducing the supply of a commodity while leaving demand unchanged could only have one result: a sharp rise in the price of that commodity.

Of course, there is a case to be made that right now, despite stable and growing demand for oil, prices are depressed—but this is because factors different from oil’s fundamentals are running the show, as it were. These factors include GDP growth in big consumers, inflation, and central bank monetary policy. But there is also the perception that there is an abundant supply of oil that has contributed to the pressure on prices.

So, what Big Oil executives are basically saying is that governments—and activists—have got the wrong end of the stick: they are trying to reduce the supply of oil and gas without addressing demand. And that is an approach that is doomed to failure, as we saw last year when the same governments that berated Big Oil for its profits subsidized the consumption of Big Oil’s products to avoid riots on their hands.

Meanwhile, at another recent event, other Big Oil executives dared speak a truth that few leaders in the West would even acknowledge in private. That truth amounts to the fact that oil and gas are going nowhere in the next few decades, no matter what green transition plans governments are making.

“We think the biggest realization that should come out of this conference … is oil and gas are needed for decades to come,” is how Hess Corp.’s John Hess put it. “Energy transition is going to take a lot longer, it’s going to cost a lot more money and need new technologies that don’t even exist today.”

Naturally, this would be a welcome opportunity for a climate advocate to argue that Big Oil is trying to save its bacon when the world is turning vegan, but even that climate advocate would be hard-pressed to explain why, if the world’s moving away from hydrocarbons, China is building coal plants and India is building refineries.

The truth is that the world is not moving away from hydrocarbons. Demand for oil has hit 102 million barrels daily. Demand for gas is soaring, too, notably from transition poster continent Europe. U.S. oil consumption is also growing after a drop in 2020—the lockdown year.

There may be something, then, in a call for addressing demand for oil and gas instead of calling for less production. But addressing demand with a view to essentially discouraging it will be tricky—and also highly unpopular among voters. Germany is a good example worth studying by other transition-minded countries. It shows that forcing the transition down people’s throats does not usually yield the expected results.

By Markets Insider, July 31, 2023

Rise in Gasoil Drives ARA Stocks to 4-Week High (Week 30 – 2023)

Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub rose in the week to 26 July, a four-week high, according to consultancy Insights Global.

A rise in gasoil inventories drove the increase.

Tankers carrying diesel arrived at the hub from India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UK and the US, and departed for northwest Europe, Spain, Denmark and Sweden.

Fuel oil stocks at ARA also increased.

The arbitrage route to Singapore was open, with some product departing for the southeast Asian bunkering hub. But bunkering demand at ARA was weak, according to Insights Global, and a rise in imports from northwest Europe, the Baltics and Greece allowed stock levels to grow.

At the lighter end of the barrel, naphtha stocks rebounded to a five-week high, rising. Demand for the product as a blending component in the gasoline pool was lower, and demand from the petrochemical sector was weak.

A contango structure in the naphtha paper market may have further incentivised keeping product in stock. Naphtha discharged at the northwest European hub from Algeria, the Mediterranean, Norway and the US, and while smaller amounts departed for the UK.

Bucking the trend, gasoline inventories decreased on the week, falling.

Demand for US-bound cargoes firmed, according to Insights Global, cutting away at European stock levels. Gasoline arrived at ARA from France, Georgia, Portugal, Spain, and Turkey, and left for the US, west Africa, and Brazil.

ARA Fuel Oil Stocks at Six-Week Low (Week 29 – 2023)

Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub shed in the week to 19 July, according to consultancy Insights Global. The downturn was driven by a drop in fuel oil inventories on the week, their lowest since the first week of June.

Fuel oil stocks fell as the arbitrage route to Singapore was open, facilitating flows out of Europe, according to Insights Global. Large volumes departed ARA for Singapore, while smaller volumes were bound for Denmark, Poland and Spain.

Fuel oil arrived at the hub from France, the UK, the US and Lithuania.

Bucking the broader trend, road fuel stocks grew on the week. Gasoil inventories gained on the week. But stocks had hit a more than six-month low last week, and levels this week remain depressed on the month.

Demand up the Rhine was weaker, owing to low water levels restricting volumes able to move. But a stockdraw could be expected, with demand rising during the summer season.

Gasoil arrived at the hub from Kuwait, India, the Mediterranean and the UK. Smaller volumes departed for west Africa, Scandinavia and the UK.

Gasoline inventories also grew week on week. Blending activity was reportedly strong at the hub, with larger volumes of components arriving and causing come congestion at Amsterdam, according to Insights Global. Gasoline discharged at ARA from Algeria, France, Sweden, Turkey and the UK, while volumes left for Canada and France.

Naphtha stocks fell on the week, down, mostly owing to gasoline blending, Insights Global said. Demand from the petrochemical sector remains weak however.

Cargoes carrying naphtha unloaded at the hub from Algeria, Norway, Spain, the UK and the US while no product left by vessel.

Jet inventories also fell on the week.

Firm seasonal demand pressured stock levels during the summer holidays. Cargoes carrying jet arrived from South Korea while larger volumes left for the UK.

One of Australia’s Largest Green Hydrogen Projects Progresses

The Western Australian Government has welcomed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Western Green Energy Hub and Korea Electric Power Corporation towards the development of one of Australia’s largest proposed green hydrogen hubs.

The Western Australian Government has welcomed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Western Green Energy Hub and Korea Electric Power Corporation towards the development of one of Australia’s largest proposed green hydrogen hubs.

The project, to be located in WA’s Goldfields-Esperance region on Mirning Country, will cover 15,000 square kilometres and require around 3,000 wind turbines and 25 million solar panel modules.

These turbines and modules generate energy for the electrolysis which converts water into hydrogen.

Once complete, the project will become one of the largest of such energy hubs in the world and generate 3.5 million tonnes of zero-carbon green hydrogen per year.

Comments attributed to Hydrogen Industry Minister Bill Johnston:

“Congratulations to Western Green Energy Hub and the Korea Electric Power Corporation on working together to assess how this significant green hydrogen hub can be created.

“The MoU is a key step forward in the process of having this major project completed.

“This is an exciting project for Western Australia and will put our State on the forefront of producing green hydrogen, making it competitive on a worldwide scale.

“The Cook Government is proud to continue its commitment to the renewable hydrogen sector and its pledge to reduce emissions in WA.”

By WA, July 18, 2023

Germany Progresses Policy on 2043 LNG Terminal Conversions for Hydrogen Imports

The German Federal Government said 7 July that it passed a draft law that would enable modifications on the LNG Acceleration Act (LNGG) that would accelerate the use of import terminals for the processing of hydrogen.

The main changes to the act focus the climate-neutrality readiness of future land-based LNG infrastructure as well as the final decision on the relocation of the floating LNG terminal at Lubmin to the port of Mukran.

After review, the law concludes that the port of Mukran would be the choice of location for the currently operational Lubmin LNG import facility, despite local opposition.

Prior to this, the German parliament had approved a law which stipulated that floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) should withdraw where permanent LNG terminals on land begin to operate.

HYDROGEN-READY

Key to the adaptation of the act was a focus on hydrogen readiness for LNG terminals. The act had previously noted a need for LNG terminals to support climate-neutral hydrogen from the beginning of 2044. However, the amendment advanced the policy by noting that fixed LNG terminals would need to evidence an ability to handle hydrogen or hydrogen derivatives (such as ammonia) at the terminal by the end of 2043 as early as the approval process.

This means that the consideration to switch to a terminal that can handle hydrogen is embedded within the planning process, rather than an obligation to be met ahead of 2043.

According to a press release from the German government, “[LNG] plant components that cannot be retrofitted later or can only be retrofitted at disproportionately high costs must be set up from the outset in such a way that operation with hydrogen or derivatives is possible.”

Some market participants have previously shown concern around the ability to retrofit an LNG terminal for hydrogen, suggesting that technological differences would result in plant operators needing to invest in new infrastructure.

The amendment to the act was proposed on a basis of avoiding stranded assets, meaning that new projects aiming to import fossil fuels have a future in a net zero energy environment even if the plant is years from decommissioning.

Imports of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives have a key role to play in overall European hydrogen security of supply, ICIS data shows. However, the share of shipped hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives is expected to be smaller than imports via pipeline from North Africa.

Overall, ICIS data shows ammonia-to-hydrogen imports of 83TWh by 2050, while North Africa pipeline volumes are expected to reach nearly 400TWh and Ukrainian imports via pipeline potentially reaching 90TWh.

Specifically in the case of Germany, total hydrogen demand in 2043 is expected to reach 165TWh, while domestic supply is only forecast at 121TWh under ICIS Base Case scenarios. The gap implies a need for potential imports, such as pipeline or ship.

Hydrogen derivatives into Europe could prove profitable into the future, based on ICIS ammonia-to-hydrogen assessment data. The ICIS NW Europe Ammonia-to-Hydrogen assessment indicates the cost of importing ammonia into the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp based on spot ammonia prices and then decomposing the ammonia into hydrogen.

Current assessment data shows the ammonia-to-hydrogen route being cost competitive with electrolytic hydrogen and around €1/kg more expensive than Dutch low-carbon hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.

By Hellenic Shipping News, July 18, 2023

ARA Gasoil Stocks at 6.5-Month Low (Week 28 – 2023)

Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub shed in the week to 12 July, according to Insights Global.

Gasoline inventories were down, driving the fall.

Gasoline inventories fell with an increase in transatlantic voyages, according to Insights Global. Gasoline arrived at ARA from northwest Europe, the Mediterranean and the Baltic, while product departed for Brazil, the US, Canada and Ghana.

Gasoil stocks at the hub also fell on the week, their lowest since the end of 2022.

Stocks at the hub shrank in part because of strong export demand to northwest Europe. Inventories fell despite weaker demand for gasoil up the Rhine, owing to low water levels restricting volumes, according to Insights Global.

Water levels have been at their shallowest over the past week since December.

Delays for barges to discharge at the hub are currently at three to five days, according to Insights Global, which has in turn reduced barge availability.

But it rained in the region yesterday, and water levels subsequently reached a more normal level for the season, so an increase in barge movements could occur next week, according to Insights Global. Vessels carrying gasoil discharged at the hub from Saudi Arabia, Spain, the UK and Bahrain while cargoes departed for France, Germany, the UK and Poland.

Bucking the trend, naphtha stocks at the hub rose.

Inventories probably grew as demand from the petrochemical sector remains reduced by more competitive propane prices, and low gasoline blending activity. Imports were firm this week, with product arriving from Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Senegal and the US, while no naphtha left the hub.

Demand for product into the hub probably remained strong on the expectation that blending activity will rise in the coming weeks, according to Insights Global.

At the heavier end of the barrel, fuel oil stocks shedding the week.

Inventories rose as the Singapore arbitrage route appeared less workable, allowing stocks to build. Fuel oil was discharged at the hub from Algeria, the US and Scandinavia, while product departed for west Africa, the Mediterranean and the UK.

Reporter: Georgina McCartney

Egypt Announces $9bn of Petrochemical Projects

Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced major deals in developing sector.

The Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources has announced new refining and petrochemical projects worth $9bn.

The Ministry said it is working on launching new refining projects valued at $7.5bn, including the expansion of Midor refinery in Alexandria, Egypt, which has completed its first and second phases and started experimentally operating, as well as the diesel production complex project at Assiut’s ANOPC.

It also added other projects including the Suez Petroleum Processing Company’s coking complex and diesel production, the condensate distillation project at Nasr Petroleum Company in Suez, and the air distillation project at Assiut’s oil refiner.

Egypt petrochemicals

The Egyptian ministry succeeded in operating eight new projects in fields of oil refining, with investments of $5bn, as part of a strategy launched in 2016 to develop the petroleum refining industry and increase its production capacities to reduce imports.

The strategy’s success led to doubling the domestic production of petrochemical materials to more than 4.3 million tons annually by the end of 2021/2022, compared to 2.1 million tons in 2015/2016, following the expansions that were added in 2016 and 2017 with a total investment of about $4bn.

By ArabianBusiness, July 11, 2023

Oil and Gas will Continue to Power the World for Decades to Come, Big Oil Firms Say

Oil and gas will continue to be leading sources of energy for decades to come on the back of a lagging energy transition, major industry players said at the Energy Asia conference held in Malaysia’s capital Kuala Lumpur this week.

“We think the biggest realization that should come out of this conference … is oil and gas are needed for decades to come,” said John Hess, CEO of U.S. oil company Hess Corporation.

“Energy transition is going to take a lot longer, it’s going to cost a lot more money and need new technologies that don’t even exist today,” he continued.

When it comes to clean energy, the world needs to invest $4 trillion a year — and it’s nowhere close, Hess said.

According to the International Energy Agency, global investment in clean energy is set to rise to $1.7 trillion in 2023.

Hess said oil and gas are key to the world’s economic competitiveness, as well as an affordable and secure energy transition.

The oil market will be more constructive in the second half of the year, with production going up to 1.2 million barrels a day in 2027, he predicted. He noted that the biggest challenge the world has is the underinvestment in the industry.

“The world is facing a structural deficit in energy supply, in oil and gas, in clean energy,” he said.

Likewise, at the the conference’s opening address, OPEC’s Secretary General projected global oil demand will rise to 110 million barrels a day by 2045. The growth comes on the back of rapid urbanization over the next few years, Haitham Al Ghais said.

In an e-mail exchange Tuesday, the largest U.S. oil producer ExxonMobil reiterated the same.

The company expects oil to remain the largest primary source of energy for at least two more decades given its vital place in the commercial transportation and chemical industry.

“Liquids are projected to remain the world’s leading energy source in 2050, even as demand growth slows beyond 2025,” Erin McGrath, ExxonMobil’s public and government affairs senior advisor, told CNBC.

“Overall, demand for liquids is expected to rise by about 15 million barrels per day by 2050. Almost all the growth will come from the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.”

Main drivers?

Asia will continue to spur the demand for oil and gas, as the region’s growth is set to overtake the U.S. and Europe by the end of the year.

“This is the region where the growth in energy demand will be, and more to come,” S&P Global’s Vice Chairman Dan Yergin said at the energy conference. He said Southeast Asia’s population alone is 50% greater than the European Union’s.

Growth in LNG markets last year were driven by China, India, Korea, Japan and Vietnam, the chairman of French petroleum energy company TotalEnergies said.

“The demand is in Asia. The demand is here, you have 5 billion people moving population, [asking] for a better way of life. And so this is where we must look to the future,” said Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies.

Likewise for oil, one of India’s largest oil companies has increased refining capacities.

“We are probably one of the few companies, one of the few countries who are going to increase refining capacities in the next three to four years by 20%,” said A.S. Sahney from Indian Oil Corporation at a separate panel discussion.

“That shows our belief in [the] continuance of fuel,” the executive director said, acknowledging that energy transition is here to stay.

“But at the same time, the demand projections for the country are such that we are forced to put up new refineries,” he continued.

According to the IEA, India is expected to see the largest increase in energy demand of any country —demand is forecast to rise more than 3% when it becomes the world’s most populous country by 2025.

Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco is also banking on hopes that China and India will drive oil demand growth of more than 2 million barrels per day, at least for the rest of this year.

Once the broader global economy starts to recover, the industry’s supply demand balances could tighten, said CEO Amin Nasser during his speech at the summit.

Oil demand an ‘ancient story’

Commodities trading firm Vitol is less bullish, predicting that demand for crude will peak in 2030 — two years later than the IEA’s forecast.

“We got it peaking in about 2030 and a gradual decline out to 2040 … And then [a] rapid decline thereafter as the EV fleet and energy transition takes over,” Vitol CEO, Russell Hardy, said during a panel discussion.

While the industry faces good fundamentals in the next few months, Russia’s continued oil production and sputtering Chinese growth complicate forecasts of where prices will go.

“The supply side is slightly overblown, particularly [in] Russia where there were quite a lot of expectations for production loss as a result of the difficulty of getting oil to market because of the sanctions,” Hardy said.

“Because of the global economic malaise at the moment, Chinese recovery is stalling a little bit,” he continued, pointing out that China’s demand for oil has not been as strong as expected.

He observed that Europe and the U.S. have one and a half million barrels a day less demand today compared to 2019 as more consumers are pushed toward renewable sources in Europe and Asia.

“So the demand is an ancient story.”

By CNBC, July 11, 2023

Column: Is Oil Market’s Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Global petroleum prices appear reasonable given the level of inventories – to the frustration of the producers who would like them to be significantly higher.

Commercial inventories of crude oil and refined products in the OECD advanced economies were around 2,842 million barrels at the end of May, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Commercial inventories were just -35 million barrels (-1% or -0.19 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average (“Short-term energy outlook”, EIA, June 6).

Given stocks almost exactly in line with the long-term seasonal average, it is unsurprising spot prices and calendar spreads were also close to average.

Front-month Brent futures prices ended May at $73 per barrel, which was in the 40th percentile for all trading days since the start of the century, once adjusted for inflation.

While the real price was a little low, it was not obviously mispriced or significantly below the long-term median price of $81.

Brent’s six-month calendar spread was trading in a backwardation of $1.31 per barrel, in the 54th percentile for all trading days since the start of the century.

The spread was slightly high, but again not obviously mispriced, or significantly above the long-term median of a backwardation of 98 cents.

Chartbook: Global oil stocks and prices

There are no comprehensive estimates for OECD inventories in June as yet.

But since the end of May, spot prices have been steady, spreads have weakened slightly, and oil stocks in the United States have been stable, all of which is consistent with a market close to balance.

Looking forward, production cuts by Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC⁺, as well as the declining oil and gas rig counts in the United States, are likely to deplete inventories later in 2023 and into 2024.

Working in the other direction, however, are high exports from Russia, Venezuela and Iran; rising interest rates and slowing economies in North America and Europe; and a sluggish post-pandemic recovery in China.

For all the powerful rhetoric from bulls and bears, including some producers and investors, the market remains in a glass half-full, half-empty condition, depending on your perspective.

Reuters by Barbara Lewis, July 11, 2023

Global Floating Oil Storage Hits Highest Level Since October 2020

The volume of crude oil sitting in stationary tankers jumped to the highest in more than two and a half years on June 23, as an unusual cluster of Saudi oil tankers is idle off Egypt’s Red Sea coast.

Crude oil on stationary tankers has reached around 129 million barrels as of the end of last week, the highest floating crude volumes since October 2020, Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg showed on Monday.

Recent data points have shown that while crude on floating storage has been rising, crude in transit and total crude volumes at sea have been falling, according to Bloomberg. 

Several OPEC+ producers began production cuts in May, which will now extend into 2024, while Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter and OPEC’s largest producer, will unilaterally reduce its output by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, to around 9 million bpd.

The cut could be extended beyond next month, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said.

The rise in floating storage is also due to an unusual cluster of mostly Saudi supertankers loaded with oil that has been idling off Egypt’s Red Sea coast for weeks. Signs have emerged that the cluster may have started to clear as two of the 11 tankers are no longer anchored near the Ain Sukhna oil terminal off Egypt.

As of June 16, ten very large crude carriers (VLCCs) carrying around 20 million barrels of oil were floating off Ain Sukhna and another two supertankers were heading to the same location, Vortexa data showed.

All 10 floating supertankers have been stationary for seven days or more and most of these cargoes loaded during or after the second half of May, Jay Maroo, Head of Market Intelligence & Analysis (MENA) at Vortexa, wrote in a note.

It wasn’t immediately clear what has caused the accumulation of tankers, while Saudi Arabia hasn’t commented on the build-up of cargoes off Egypt. Most supertankers carrying Saudi Arabian crude typically deliver the oil to Ain Sukhna without transiting the Suez Canal.

The most likely reason is a lack of storage, according to Bloomberg.

Oilprice.com by Charles Kennedy, July 11, 2023