Is WTI Crude Oil Set Within a New Ranging Market?

Russian production, the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates, and the weakened dollar. What other factors are driving crude oil prices these days?

Macroeconomics

On the macroeconomic side, the greenback diminished its gains on Wednesday following the U.S. Central Bank’s July minutes. Indeed, during its monthly meeting, the Fed appeared to be more hawkish than expected.

This raised concerns from some officials in the U.S. Central Bank, who were debating whether the Fed could raise rates too far to regain control of inflation on the one hand, and the need for further hikes on the other.

As I mentioned in my last article published last Thursday, when all data turns into bearish territory for both legs – the greenback and black gold – it is usually the optimism (or pessimism, depending on which point of view we take) triggered by the macroeconomic perspective that leads the markets.

In that case, as the news has rather been bullish for the US dollar, it is the one which will set the tempo for the positively or negatively correlated assets.
Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the weekly change in Crude Oil Inventories.
U.S. crude oil inventories

The commercial crude oil reserves in the United States surprised the market by sharply dropping to -7.056M barrels while expectations were just showing a tiny drop (-0.275M barrels).

US crude inventories have thus decreased by over seven million barrels in volume, which is a very significant deviation displaying greater demand and is a strong bullish factor for crude oil prices, since the drop can be explained, in part, by the increase in U.S. crude exports, which more than doubled last week to 5 million barrels per day (Mbpd) against 2.1 Mbpd.

The decline in commercial reserves is due to strong domestic demand and rising exports as US trading partners seek to compensate for the loss of Russian hydrocarbons.
U.S. Gasoline inventories

Like the previous week, U.S. gasoline demand figures have significantly dropped as well:

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This is once again where we could see a sustainable rise in demand marked by an unexpectedly sudden drop in gasoline reserves, since the latter were reduced by four and a half million barrels. Another factor to note is that a few refineries also operated at a lower rate of capacity, at 93.5% versus 94.3%.
Geopolitics

On the geopolitical scene, the ongoing negotiations around the Iranian nuclear agreement, which could allow this major producer to resume its exports, still hover over prices as a bearish factor.

However, even a return to the market of Iranian crude oil production would not compensate for the loss of Russian supply. In short, there is little new information about this agreement.

Midweek, black gold gained 5% after rebounding from a 6-month low, as a sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories outweighed fears over rising Russian output, export sales, and recession concerns.

By FXStreet, August 19, 2022

‘We Got Too Comfortable’: The Race To Build an LNG Terminal in North Germany

Country is hoping a new North Sea terminal can supply 8% of its gas usage as war in Ukraine upends energy policy.

As tourists at the Hooksiel resort on Germany’s North Sea coastline lean back in their wicker beach chairs or stomp around the mud flats, the cast-iron jetty that stretches for 1.3km into the ocean to their right is a familiar sight. The frantic clanging of metal on metal at its furthest tip, however, is new.

Built in 1982, the jetty was designed to host not just two import terminals for chemicals but also one for liquefied natural gas (LNG), shipped in on tankers from the US. With cheap Russian gas beating LNG for price, those tankers never arrived. Two adjacent plots of land, reclaimed from the North Sea to make space for industry, instead attracted rare warblers and bitterns.

But as Russia’s war in Ukraine upends decades of German energy policy, getting LNG tankers to dock on the Hooksiel jetty is suddenly a matter of national priority.

Wilhelmshaven, the nearby historic port city, has become emblematic of a two-fold, seemingly contradictory promise made by Germany’s government: that it can import LNG to compensate for throttled gas imports from Russia at record speed, belying a reputation for bureaucratic plodding; and that the jetty into the North Sea will carry LNG – a polluting fossil fuel – for only a short time, soon to be replaced with a more climate-friendly substitute.

Wilhelmshaven is one of five floating LNG terminals Germany is rushing to build by the end of the year, creating infrastructure that a study in July by the Fraunhofer Institute argued would be vital to avoid cold homes and closed factories this winter not just in Germany but across all of Europe as Vladimir Putin turns off the tap.

The Höegh Esperanza, a 300-metre long tanker converted into a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit and chartered by the German government at a mooted cost of €200,000 a day, will dock at the jetty and turn liquid back into gas at a rate of about 10 hours per tanker load.

Roughly 80 tankers are expected to arrive at Wilhelmshaven each year, substituting half of the gas imports the German energy company Uniper used to have from Russia, or 8% of Germany’s overall gas usage before the start of the war.

Shortly after Russian troops crossed on to Ukrainian soil in the spring, the talk was that building LNG terminals would take three to five years. Now politicians are confident the terminal and its connecting pipeline can be built in seven months, with works finishing on 21 December and gas flowing the day after.

Uniper, which is managing the build, is only slightly more cautious, saying windy weather in the colder months could yet delay completion until the second half of the winter.

Behind-schedule building projects, such as Berlin’s new airport and Hamburg’s Elbphilharmonie concert hall, have in recent years busted myths of German efficiency. The LNG terminals are trying to buck the trend by instead emulating the model behind the creation of Tesla’s new Gigafactory in Brandenburg, with building works already starting while permit applications are still being scrutinised.

“Everything that’s usually done step by step, we are now doing in parallel,” said Holger Kreetz, Uniper’s chief operating officer for asset management, on a boat trip to the far end of the Hooksiel jetty at the start of the week.

Environmental impact assessments, usually a requisite step, are simply being skipped. The economic affairs minister, Robert Habeck, a Green party politician and self-proclaimed “biggest porpoise fan in the government”, has shrugged off concerns that building works could disturb the endangered aquatic mammals basking in Jade Bay. Ensuring Germany was no longer blackmailable by Putin had to take priority, he said.

Germany’s about-face from Russian natural gas pipelines to shipped-in LNG will not just test the political credibility of the Greens. “It’s hard to admit, but we probably wouldn’t have got around to building these terminals so quickly if it wasn’t for the war,” said Olaf Lies, the centre-left Social Democrat environment minister for the state of Lower Saxony. “To an extent, what is happening in Wilhelmshaven now also shows up the political failures of the past. We got too comfortable and neglected other projects we should have tackled.”

The hope is that Europe’s energy crisis could be an opportunity to take strides towards a greener future rather than be a setback for its climate targets, said Lies, who insisted that the Hooksiel jetty would host a “molecule terminal” rather than one specific to LNG.

As Germany has committed to being greenhouse gas-neutral by 2045, the pipelines on the North Sea coast would soon not be pumping LNG but green hydrogen, produced by using renewable electricity to drive an electrolyser that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen, Lies said in an interview.

Some of the green hydrogen would be produced in Wilhelmshaven, where Uniper is converting a phased-out coal plant into an electrolyser. The rest would be imported via the new terminal infrastructure.

Open Grid Europe, the company connecting the terminal to the national gas grid, said its pipelines were 100% hydrogen-compatible barring some additional insulation before a switch over. Tests are proceeding to establish whether a natural underground salt dome outside Wilhelmshaven, where German emergency crude oil supplies have been stored since the 1970s, could hold hydrogen.

“The big energy exporters of tomorrow aren’t going to be those countries rich in natural gas, but the ones that have plenty of wind, sun and water,” Lies said, painting a picture of his home town’s reinvention as a renewable energy hub for imports from Australia, South America and Africa. “Green Wilhelmshaven” brochures have already been printed.

Among Wilhelmshaven’s residents some scepticism remains. The coastal city north of Bremen is a place of superlatives: the largest hub for Germany’s military, which coordinates its maritime forces from here; the country’s only German deepwater port; and the largest import terminal for crude oil, pumped all the way down into the industrial heartland in the Rhine valley. It was here that a sailors’ revolt against the Kaiser’s orders in October 1918 set off a chain of events that swept away the old German empire.

But triumphant highs in Wilhelmshaven’s history have been swiftly followed usually by humiliating lows. After emerging as a pirate stronghold in the 14th century its fortress was destroyed by the Hanseatic League. Flourishing as the hub of the German imperial navy under the rule of Kaiser Wilhelm II, it was cut down to size by the restrictions of the Versailles Treaty. After Hitler used the square in front of Wilhelmshaven to denounce the naval agreement with Britain, in April 1939 came Allied bombs, destroying two-thirds of the city’s residential buildings.

The city’s unemployment rates have still not recovered from the closure of the typewriter maker Olympia in 1991 and a loss of almost 3,000 jobs.

Floating LNG terminals are unlikely to change that, since they come with their own trained staff; one official put the number of jobs created at no more than 20.

While the new terminal will not spoil the vista from Wilhelmshaven’s Südstrand tourist spot, or stink out the seaside air, some residents have concerns around the project’s long-term function.

“It’s an opportunity, but also a risk,” said Fritz Santjer, an electrical engineer and member of Scientists for Future, an initiative started three years ago in support of the Fridays for Future climate movement.

Santjer, who lives on a green plot of land by the dyke in the neighbouring village of Sande, added: “If the government follows up on its plans to expand offshore wind farms, then we’re making real progress to meet the Paris agreement, and floating LNG terminals could be a good bridging technology on that path. But what if we have a new government in four years, which decides the targets are unrealistic and is quite happy to keep pumping fracking gas? Are we certain Germany will switch to hydrogen then? Do we know whether it will be green or blue?”

The pressure group Environmental Action Germany warns that the pipelines built in Wilhelmshaven will create more capacity for gas imports than required to bridge a nervous winter, and also lead Germany to miss its carbon reduction targets.

Last Friday, climate activists blocked parts of the pipeline building site at Hooksiel and poured sand into the tanks of diggers. A spokesperson said the damage caused would not set back the works’ timeline.

While the enthusiasm of German politicians and energy companies for green hydrogen is palpable, economic realities may yet tie them to non-renewable gas for longer than they desire. China and Japan, the globe’s largest importers of LNG, have underused their long-term options with suppliers this summer, allowing Europe to rake in their off-takes. Come winter, they may insist on their share of the market, forcing countries like Germany into long-term commitments.

Berlin’s negotiations over an LNG deal with Qatar are reportedly proving more difficult than expected, because the gas-rich Middle Eastern state was insisting on a contract running over 20 years until 2042.

For Wilhelmshaven to become the symbol of Germany’s carbon neutrality success in 2045, the country needs to keep up its newly found momentum.

By The Guardian, August 19, 2022

ARA Independent Oil Product Stocks Hit 11-Month Highs (Week 33 – 2022)

Independently-held refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose during the week, reaching their highest since September 2021.

Stocks of all surveyed products rose on the week, with naphtha inventories rising by more than any other. The European naphtha market has been chronically oversupplied throughout the summer, and low water levels on the river Rhine have made it more difficult to move naphtha to destinations inland.

The virtual impossibility of moving significant quantities of refined products inland has freed up some barge capacity over the past week, cooling a rise in freight that dates back to the beginning of July.

Gasoline blending activity in the ARA area rose on the week, albeit from a relatively low base. Arbitrage outflows to the US and west Africa slowed slightly, but outflows to the Mediterranean and other European destinations increased.

The increase in the number of available barges in the ARA helped reduce some of the congestion that has slowed production this summer.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Engro, Excelerate to Develop Gas Marketing Biz in Pakistan

Engro Eximp FZE, a subsidiary of Pakistan’s Engro Corporation, has signed a memorandum of understanding with New York-listed Excelerate Energy to develop a gas marketing business in the south Asian nation, Engro said on August 3.

The companies will jointly evaluate the possibility of establishing a regasified LNG (RLNG) marketing business. “This initiative has the potential to increase private company participation in Pakistan’s LNG sector and enhance Pakistan’s energy security by opening up new RLNG supply avenues for businesses and consumers,” the company said.

Elengy Terminal Pakistan, a joint venture between Dutch Vopak LNG Holding and Engro, operates a floating LNG terminal at Port Qasim near Karachi. The terminal has been chartered under a long-term contract from Excelerate.

The terminal currently fulfills as much as 15% of Pakistan’s natural gas requirements, Engro said.

Natural Gas World by Shardul Sharma, August 16, 2022

PNOC Seeks Creation of Strategic Petroleum Reserves

State-run Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) wants to push through with the establishment of a strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), along with an interim oil stockpiling program, in a bid to provide oil supply security and price stability in the country.

PNOC has issued an invitation for negotiated procurement for transaction advisory services for its SPR program.

The SPR, or a strategic oil stockpile, is an emergency fuel storage of oil and petroleum products maintained by either the government or private entities, or both, which are released during periods of local or international oil supply disruptions.

According to PNOC, the main purpose of the SPR is to temporarily replace the physical volumes of imported oil or refined petroleum products that may be lost in the short-term during an emergency.

PNOC will engage the services of a transaction adviser to prepare the detailed feasibility study for the development of a national SPR.

The comprehensive feasibility study is expected to cover the technical, legal, social, environmental, financial and economic viability aspects, as well as the risk assessment in developing and implementing the project.

If a national SPR is determined to be viable for the country, PNOC said the study must assess potential sites, considering all the currently existing storage facilities that can be used for SPR development.

Likewise, the best stockpile ownership options, methods and technologies to be adopted, composition and volume as well as estimated total project cost should be determined.

Recognizing that any SPR program would entail gradual build-up of volume and presence in strategic locations, PNOC is also requiring its transaction adviser to come up with a study on the establishment of an interim oil stockpiling program that can be undertaken in the near term as a transition phase leading to the full-blown SPR.

“The objective of this short-term undertaking is to provide a response mechanism that the government may immediately employ in times of oil-related emergencies,” PNOC said.

Being a country that is almost completely reliant on imports to supply its crude oil and petroleum product requirements, PNOC said pump prices in the Philippines are heavily affected by price adjustments caused by complications among different parties on the global stage, on top of problems within its own borders as well as natural and man-made disasters.

philstar GLOBAL by Richmond Mercurio, August 16, 2022

ARA Independent Stocks Tick down (Week 32 – 2022)

Independently-held refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area fell during the week to 10 August, down from the 11-month highs recorded a week earlier.

The overall fall was led by a drop in stocks of light ends naphtha and gasoline.

The week on week fall in gasoline inventories was the first recorded since June, and was prompted by an increase in flows to west Africa.

Blending activity in the ARA area appeared to increase on the week, but not sufficiently to offset the rise in outflows. Gasoline stocks had been building throughout the summer, supported by a relatively lacklustre summer driving season in the northern hemisphere caused by high retail prices.

Naphtha stocks fell on the week to reach their lowest since June, having been at their highest since March 2021 just a week earlier.

Petrochemical end-users have been rushing to move naphtha inland on barges in response to tightening loading restrictions on the river Rhine. Water levels on the river are now approaching the all-time lows recorded in October 2018, and freight rates from the ARA to upper-Rhine destinations like Switzerland are already at all-time highs.

But the increasing use of smaller barges with lesser draughts to carry product inland has freed up some larger capacity barges in the ARA area, bringing prices on some intra-ARA routes down from recent four-month highs.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

Egypt to Double Oil Storage Capacity at Al-Hamra Port in 3 Years: Asharq

Egypt is working to double the oil storage capacity at Al-Hamra Port within three years, Asharq reported citing an industry source.

With the expansion, the capacity will increase to 5.3 million barrels of crude oil.

This comes within the framework of the government’s plans to develop the new Alamein area, as well as becoming a regional center for energy storage, trading and trade. 

Operated by the Western Desert Operating Petroleum Co. and built to handle ore produced in the Western Desert, Al-Hamra Port has six storage tanks and one buoy mooring facility for loading and unloading.

“Expansion plans have been in place for several years and today we laid the foundation stone for them. The aim of the expansions is to develop the new Alamein area and provide energy for the factories that will be established there,” the source added. 

By Arab News, August 9, 2022

The United States Became the World’s Largest LNG Exporter in the First Half of 2022

The United States became the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter during the first half of 2022, according to data from CEDIGAZ. Compared with the second half of 2021, U.S. LNG exports increased by 12% in the first half of 2022, averaging 11.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). U.S. LNG exports continued to grow for three reasons—increased LNG export capacity, increased international natural gas and LNG prices, and increased global demand, particularly in Europe.

According to our estimates, installed U.S. LNG export capacity has expanded by 1.9 Bcf/d nominal (2.1 Bcf/d peak) since November 2021. The capacity additions included a sixth train at the Sabine Pass LNG, 18 new mid-scale liquefaction trains at the Calcasieu Pass LNG, and increased LNG production capacity at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG facilities. As of July 2022, we estimate that U.S. LNG liquefaction capacity averaged 11.4 Bcf/d, with a shorter-term peak capacity of 13.9 Bcf/d.

International natural gas and LNG prices hit record highs in the last quarter of 2021 and first half of 2022. Prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands have been trading at record highs since October 2021.

TTF averaged $30.94 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the first half of 2022. LNG spot prices in Asia have also been high, averaging $29.50/MMBtu during the same period.

Since the end of last year, countries in Europe have increasingly imported more LNG to compensate for lower pipeline imports from Russia and to fill historically low natural gas storage inventories.

LNG imports in the EU and UK increased by 63% during the first half of 2022 to average 14.8 Bcf/d.

Most U.S. LNG exports went to the EU and the UK during the first five months of this year, accounting for 64%, or 7.3 Bcf/d, of the total U.S. LNG exports. Similar to 2021, the United States sent the most LNG to the EU and UK during the first half of the year, providing 47% of the 14.8 Bcf/d of Europe’s total LNG imports, followed by Qatar at 15%, Russia at 14%, and four African countries combined at 17%.

In June, the United States exported 11% less LNG than the 11.4 Bcf/d average exports during the first five months of 2022, mainly as a result of an unplanned outage at the Freeport LNG export facility. Freeport LNG is expected to resume partial liquefaction operations in early October 2022.

Utilization of the peak capacity at the seven U.S. LNG export facilities averaged 87% during the first half of 2022, mainly before the Freeport LNG outage, which is similar to the utilization on average during 2021.

eia by Victoria Zaretskaya, August 5, 2022

Russia’s Rosneft Starts Construction of Huge Arctic Oil Terminal

Russian energy giant Rosneft (ROSN.MM) said on Tuesday it has started construction of an Arctic oil terminal at the Bukhta Sever port, part of its huge Vostok Oil project, aimed at facilitating development of the Northern Sea Route.

The port will become Russia’s largest oil terminal with 102 reservoirs to be built by 2030, the company said.

Rosneft is leading the project that is comparable in size to the exploration of West Siberia in the 1970s or the U.S. Bakken oil region over the past decade.

Russia is facing challenges in developing its oil industry due to the sweeping Western sanctions imposed against Moscow after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Global commodities trader Trafigura earlier this month sold its 10% stake in the Vostok Oil project to a Hong Kong-registered trading firm, Nord Axis.

Rosneft has also approached other trading firms about participation in the project and sold a 5% stake to rival trader Vitol and Mercantile & Maritime for $4 billion last year.

Rosneft plans to tranship some 30 million tonnes (600,000 barrels per day) of oil via the Bukhta Sever port per year initially with a gradual increase to 100 million tonnes by 2030.

The company said on Tuesday that it had also started production drilling at the northern Payakha oil field, also part of Vostok Oil.

Reuters by Kirsten Donovan, August 5, 2022

Exxon, Chevron Post Blowout Earnings, Oil Majors Bet on Buybacks

The two largest U.S. oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Chevron Corp (CVX.N), posted record revenue on Friday, bolstered by surging crude oil and natural gas prices and following similar results for European majors a day earlier.

The U.S. pair, along with UK-based Shell (SHEL.L) and France’s TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), combined to earn nearly $51 billion in the most recent quarter, almost double what the group brought in for the year-ago period.

Exxon outpaced its rivals with a $17.9 billion quarterly profit, the most for any international oil major in history.

Chevron, Shell and Total ran to catch up with Exxon’s aggressive buyback program, which was kept unaltered.

The four returned a total of $23 billion to shareholders in the quarter, capitalizing on high margins derived from selling oil and gas. The fifth major, BP Plc (BP.L), reports next week. read more

The companies posted strong results in their production units, helped by the surge in benchmark Brent crude oil futures , which averaged around $114 a barrel in the quarter.

High crude oil prices can cut into margins for integrated oil majors, as they also bear the cost of crude used for refined products.

However, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and numerous shutdowns of refineries worldwide in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, refining margins exploded in the second quarter, outpacing the gains in crude and adding to earnings.

“The strong second-quarter results reflect a tight global market environment, where demand has recovered to near pre-pandemic levels and supply has attritted,” said Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods, in a call with analysts. “Growing supply will not happen overnight.”

A combination of file photos shows the logos of five of the largest publicly traded oil companies; BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total.

The results from the majors are sure to draw fire from politicians and consumer advocates who say the oil companies are capitalizing on a global supply shortage to fatten profits and gouge consumers.

U.S. President Joe Biden last month said Exxon and others were making “more money than God” at a time when consumer fuel prices surged to records.

Earlier this month, Britain passed a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers in the North Sea. U.S. lawmakers have discussed a similar idea, though it faces long odds in Congress.

A windfall tax does not provide “incentive for increased production, which is really what the world needs today,” said Exxon Chief Financial Officer Kathryn Mikells, in an interview with Reuters.

The companies say they are merely meeting consumer demand, and that prices are a function of global supply issues and lack of investment. The majors have been disciplined with their capital and are resisting ramping up capital expenditure due to pressure from investors who want better returns and resilience during a down cycle.

“In the short term (cash from oil) goes to the balance sheet. There’s no nowhere else for it to go,” Chevron CFO Pierre Breber told Reuters.

Worldwide oil output has been held back by a slow return of barrels to the market from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, as well as labor and equipment shortages hampering a swifter increase in supply in places like the United States.

Exxon earlier this year more than doubled its projected buyback program to $30 billion through 2022 and 2023. Shell said it would buy back $6 billion in shares in the current quarter, while Chevron boosted its annual buyback plans to a range of $10 billion to $15 billion, up from $5 billion to $10 billion.

Exxon shares rose 4.6% to $96.93. Chevron shares rose almost 9%, closing at $163.78.

Reuters by Sabrina Valle, August 5, 2022