U.S. Oil Refinery Utilization At Near-Peak Levels

As of May 2022, refining capacity stands at 17.9 million barrels per day. With utilization at near-record highs, the refinery margins are also at a record high.

In a prior note, we look at the energy industry from a production and capital expenditure perspective. U.S. President Joe Biden has called upon the industry to increase both oil production and refining capacity.

In this note, we focus on the latter as refineries play a key role in the lifecycle of a barrel of oil by converting it into refined products including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Exhibit 1 highlights the U.S. refining system at an aggregate level. As of May 2022, refining capacity stands at 17.9 million barrels per day (bpd). In other words, the U.S. can push through a maximum of 17.9 million bpd through its system (it can fluctuate week-to-week).

We note that refinery capacity has declined by approximately 1 million barrels per day since the 2020 pandemic.

Looking at gross inputs (i.e., how many barrels are currently being pushed through the refining system), the latest reading stands at approximately 16.6 million bpd.

Exhibit 1 – U.S. Refining Capacity

Refining utilization at near-peak levels

Comparing gross inputs relative to maximum operating capacity, we arrive at a ‘utilization rate’ for the refining system as shown in exhibit 2. The latest utilization rate stands at 94.2% – in other words, the typical refining unit is running at 94% of maximum capacity.

Exhibit 2: U.S. Refining Capacity Utilization

We also look at refining utilization on a seasonality basis in exhibit 3 which shows that the current utilization rate is seasonally above the last three years which is important ahead of the summer driving season. For reference refinery utilization dropped to a pandemic low of 56% in March 2021.

Exhibit 3: U.S. Refining Capacity Utilization

With utilization at near-record highs, the refinery margins are also at a record high.

To measure margins, we look at crack spreads, which measure the difference between the purchase price of crude oil and the selling price of finished products such as gasoline and diesel. The spread excludes individual refinery operating costs but can be used as a measure of general profitability amongst refineries.

As shown in Exhibit 4, the crude oil crack spread is near a record high of $57.8 despite higher oil input prices. A contributing factor to the high spread is the average selling price of finished products including gasoline and diesel which are both at a record high.

Exhibit 4: Crack Spread

Refiners scoring high from a StarMine Perspective

Using Refinitiv Workspace, we head to the Aggregates app and look at large and mid-cap companies in North America. Exhibit 5 highlights the top-ranked sub-industries using various StarMine models.

The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry has 13 constituents which are ranked among the highest in North America. The sub-industry has an aggregate ranking of 89 out of 100 for both the StarMine Combined Alpha Model and Analyst Revision Model.

The mean EPS estimate for 2022 has increased by 98.44% over the last 90 days (+25.24% for Revenue) which means analysts have been busy raising estimates for companies in this industry. Refiners also score well on our Relative Valuation Model (78th percentile) which ranks companies on a ‘cheap’ or ‘expensive’ basis using various valuation metrics.

Because refiners exhibit strong fundamentals and earnings revision, the industry is likely to pass the screens of institutional investors with a Smart Holdings rank of 78. Finally, the industry has a high Earnings Quality rank of 90 (top decile).

Exhibit 5: Aggregate StarMine Scores for North America

In conclusion, as the refining system is running at near-peak levels, it appears that the energy sector will be limited in its ability to increase refining capacity.

Furthermore, the decline in refining capacity was exacerbated during the 2020 pandemic as a collapse in oil prices forced unprofitable refineries to shut down. The energy industry is also moving to a net-zero carbon strategy which means less investment will be put into refineries which use carbons as its primary source. For example, the transition to energy vehicles will reduce demand for gasoline.

It appears that any price pressure at the pump will require either a) new facilities to be brought online and/or b) a reduction in consumer demand for gasoline to give the industry a chance to rebuild supply levels.

Alpha Insight by Lipper, July 5, 2022

Gunvor and Air Products Join Forces for Rotterdam Port Green Hydrogen Terminal

Swiss-based commodity trading giant Gunvor has signed a joint development agreement with US hydrogen producer Air Products to set up a green hydrogen import terminal in Rotterdam port by 2026. 

The Gunvor site in Europoort has been earmarked to receive green ammonia, produced from renewable energy sources, for large-scale green hydrogen production, which will be distributed to markets within Europe, including the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium.

The companies said the signing of the agreement is an important step towards an investment decision that will be taken as they gain confidence in the regulatory framework, permitting process, and funding support that the project would seek as an “Important Project of Common European Interest” (IPCEI). 

Allard Castelein, CEO, Port of Rotterdam, said: “We are very supportive of Air Products’ and Gunvor’s plans, which are a great example of using a brownfield location to set up a new import terminal for green ammonia in the port of Rotterdam.

Both companies have been active in the energy sector for a long time and are responding to society’s demand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase Europe’s energy independence. Green ammonia is not only a hydrogen carrier and a feedstock for the chemical industry, but it’s also an important renewable fuel for the shipping sector. First-mover projects like this will make Rotterdam Europe’s foremost hydrogen hub.”

Others have also moved to develop green ammonia import terminals for hydrogen production in Rotterdam port. Dutch state-owned energy network operator Gasunie, bulk handling firm HES International and tank storage specialist Vopak joined forces in April this year for a terminal that will operate on the Maasvlakte also by 2026.

Splash247.com by Adis Ajdin, July 5, 2022

ARA Independent Oil Product Stocks Tick up (Week 26 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose in the week to 29 June, supported by an increase in gasoline stocks, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Refined product inventories at ARA rose to eight-week highs, but have stayed close since September 2021, having averaged in the preceding nine months. Lower export demand for European gasoline helped bring gasoline inventories up on the week, with outflows to the US dwindling.

Tankers containing finished-grade gasoline and blending components departed for Canada, the Mediterranean, Puerto Rico, Spain and west Africa as well as the US. Tankers arrived from Italy, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

Gasoil and jet fuel inventories also rose.

Flows of middle distillate barges up the river Rhine increased on the week, and seagoing tankers departed for Ireland, Poland and the UK. The outflows were offset by the arrival of cargoes from Italy and Russia.

Spot trading in the European diesel market has been subdued in recent weeks, with steep backwardation in the Ice gasoil forward curve making market participants reluctant to acquire any more cargoes than necessary. Jet cargoes arrived from India and South Korea and departed for Norway and the UK.

Naphtha and fuel oil stocks fell. Naphtha inventories stabilised at 15-month highs after rising sharply during June. The slight week-on-week fall in stocks was the result of a cargo departing for Spain, as well as a slight increase in barge flows of naphtha to regional gasoline producers.

The departure of a cargo for Spain was likely the result of traders seeking more cost effective storage tanks, outside of the ARA area that is the main European hub. Naphtha cargoes arrived from Algeria, Italy, Norway, Russia and the UK.

Fuel oil stocks fell on the week. Tankers arrived from Estonia, Finland, Germany, Poland, Russia and Sweden, and departed for France, the Mediterranean and west Africa.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

China Deal with Aramco Could Help Country Meet Its Energy Needs: Top Executive

A long-term partnership with Saudi Aramco could help China meet its energy security, economic development, and climate change mitigation goals, according to an official from the firm.

Aramco senior vice president Mohammed Al Qahtani made the claim while speaking at the third Qingdao Multinationals Summit in the Shandong Province, saying his firm’s support will allow China to create a modern, efficient downstream sector in Shandong, with lower emissions.

“This includes our special interest in large, integrated downstream projects with high conversion into chemicals. In fact, with SABIC joining the Aramco family, and with nearly 3,000 chemical enterprises already in Shandong Province, we could jointly create a chemicals sector to rival any in the world,” he added.

Shandong is China’s third-largest province in terms of gross domestic product and accounts for 26 percent of the nation’s refining capacity.

Al Qahtani said: “Saudi Vision 2030 offers major new supply chain opportunities for Shandong companies in the Kingdom. The impact of an Aramco ‘one-stop shop’ on Shandong would be profound. And it would solidify Shandong’s crucial role in making some of China’s most important goals a reality.”

By ARAB NEWS, June 28, 2022

Getting LNG is Bigger Challenge than Terminals – Uniper CEO

(Montel) Germany should reach its goal to quickly bring LNG import capacity online but will struggle to get the volumes it needs from the global market, Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach said on Monday.

“We’re facing the bigger challenge here because […] the world didn’t wait for Germany to become an LNG importer,” Maubach said at the E-world conference in Essen.

The EU’s biggest economy is looking to boost LNG imports in the near term as an alternative to natural gas piped in from Russia, although LNG exporters usually want long-term delivery contracts, he said.

“First, there is the long-term contract and then comes the investment [into LNG export capacity],” he said, adding that LNG exporters from Qatar, the US or Australia prefer 20-year contracts.

This, however, would clash with Germany’s 2045 climate neutrality goal with a planned 88% emissions cut by 2040 compared to 1990. But buying spot LNG would come at a dear price, given increased competition from Asia.

The German government has chartered four LNG import terminal ships – so-called floating storage and regasification units – together with Uniper and RWE with a combined capacity of 33bcm/year.

“I’m confident that the capacities will gradually come online,” said Maubach regarding the plans to bring two of the ships online next winter and the other two by mid-2023.

Uniper is currently receiving less than 50% of its nominated Russian gas volumes, Maubach said earlier.

Alert level
Russian Gazprom has reduced deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to the EU by more than half over the past week, raising concerns Germany would not meet its winter storage obligations.

“If the gas flows fell so much that we see storages getting emptier over the summer then, I believe, we’re at a point where we needed to think of the next steps,” Germany’s energy state secretary Oliver Krischer told the same conference.

He referred to the EU’s three-step gas emergency plan with Germany being in the early warning level currently. The next step would be the alert level.

Russia has been Germany’s dominant gas supplier but the country – currently without any LNG import capacity – is aiming to gradually wean off its dependance from Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.

Germany’s gas storage levels were last seen at 57.6%, up 0.6 percentage points on the day, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

MONTEL by Andreas Lochner, June 27, 2022

Mexico’s AMLO Aiming for 500 MMcf/d Jaltipan-Salina Cruz Pipeline To Be Built Within a Year

Mexico’s president said Saturday he hopes for construction of the Jaltipán-Salina Cruz natural gas pipeline to be complete within a year at the most.

The proposed 500 MMcf/d pipeline would span the Tehuantepec Isthmus, from Chinameca, Veracruz, to Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, where the government is planning a 3 million metric tons/year floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal.

State power company Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), which is overseeing both projects, still must obtain the necessary rights-of-way for the pipeline to go forward, said President Andrés Manuel López Obrador during a speech in Salina Cruz.

Once the pipeline is in place, the government plans to conduct a tender for construction of the floating storage and production unit (FSRU), said the president, who is known by his initials AMLO.

“There is an agreement to put a liquefaction plant in Salina Cruz,”he said, though he did not name the parties involved.

CFE last year sought formal expressions of interest from firms in building and operating the pipeline and terminal. No announcement has been made as to which firm might undertake the project.

By developing an LNG export terminal on the Pacific Coast, CFE is aiming to export gas sourced via its extensive pipeline network to consumers in Asia. “We have a gas contract that allows us to have sufficient volumes to export to Asia, but we have it in the Gulf [of Mexico] and we need a pipeline so that here in Salina Cruz, we can build a liquefaction plant,” the president said.

The FSRU would require investment of 60 billion pesos, or about $2.93 billion, said López Obrador. 

The Salina Cruz terminal is one of several LNG export projects under development or proposed on Mexico’s Pacific Coast meant to capitalize on demand in Asia for North American LNG.

Imports account for 84% of Mexico’s gas consumption as of February, excluding the gas that state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) produces and consumes itself. 

Experts, however, remain skeptical about the logistics and economics behind re-exporting U.S. gas from Salina Cruz specifically.

“I absolutely do not see it is feasible because there is no way to bring gas all the way down there,” independent energy analyst Rosanety Barrios told NGI. “It requires substantial improvement in the current gas infrastructure and compressor stations. Nobody is doing anything in this sense.”

Barrios said that Sempra’s proposed Vista Pacífico terminal in Topolobampo, Sinaloa, or Mexico Pacific Ltd.’s project planned for Puerto Libertad, Sonora, would make more economic sense.

Even with sufficient infrastructure in place, the transport costs required to move gas from the United States to Salina Cruz would make it difficult for the terminal to be competitive, Barrios explained.

Mexico City-based analyst Gonzalo Monroy expressed a similar view, noting that the idea of an LNG export terminal in Salina Cruz has been under discussion for years.

The original idea was to source the gas from Pemex production in southeastern Mexico. The problem is that Pemex now consumes most of the gas it produces to stimulate oil production and for other internal processes.

“And in that regard…López Obrador is reviving an old idea which still lacks all the infrastructure, all the economic logic,” Monroy told NGI.

The government also plans to invest 60 billion pesos, via Pemex, in a coker unit at the Salina Cruz refinery. The coker unit, FSRU and gas pipeline are all part of López Obrador’s larger Tehuantepec Isthmus Interoceanic Corridor project. 

NATURAL GAS INTELLIGENCE by Andrew Baker, June 27, 2022

Europe’s Gas Storage Tanks Already Half Full, But Will It Be Enough?

Gazprom cuts supplies of gas as Europe races to fill its storage tanks. These crossed the halfway mark on June 7 and are now 51.12% full, as the EU seeks to replenish its supplies ahead of the coming winter. That race became even more poignant after Russia’s state-owned gas behemoth Gazprom cut supplies to Europe, claiming Siemen’s failure to return compressor units on time has forced the Russian company to reduce supplies by 60%.

The pumping of gas into European underground gas storage facilities in May not only reached a record level for this month, but hit the highest level since records started in 2011, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). LNG imports to Europe also reached a record level last month.

Some 15.6bn cubic metres of gas were pumped into European storage facilities in May, up by 52% compared with last year’s pumping in the same period and by 11.5% compared with the previous record of May 2018.

Europe went into last year’s heating season, which starts on October 1, with the lowest levels of gas in storage in many years. Tanks were only 74% full on October 1, 2021 against the 80%-95% that was usual in previous years.

However, extra supplies of LNG from the US and Qatar combined with a relatively mild winter meant that the EU scraped through the season, which ended on March 31. European tanks were still 26.3% full on that day, well ahead of the 10%-12% that analysts feared might be left.

The distribution of gas storage in Europe is not even. The Polish gas tanks, for example, are already 96% full and a new pipeline bringing gas from Norway to Poland is due to come online at the start of October, making Poland the first European country to entirely break its dependence on Russian gas. Portugal’s tanks were also over 90% full by June, although Portugal relies heavily on LNG imports and is not an integral part of the European gas pipeline network.

The UK, Czechia and Denmark gas tanks are also just over 70% full, putting them in comfortable positions. However, many other EU countries have far less, with Sweden at the bottom of the list with only 10% and Croatia and Bulgaria both with less than 30%.

However, the key countries of German and Italy have 55.95% and 53.9% respectively and are by far the biggest consumers of gas. As Germany is home to the largest gas tanks in Europe it acts as a EU distribution hub for gas. It already has enough to meet its domestic needs in this coming winter and the excess can be distributed to other EU countries as demand requires. Between them German and Italy already account for more than 40% of all the gas in storage in Europe.

Ukraine has even bigger storage facilities and is a major source of gas during the winter, but its tanks are only 18.6% full as of June 16. Still, even at low levels the gas in storage in Ukraine is already equal to more than 10% of all gas stored in Europe.

Gazprom cut off

Gazprom reported on June 14 it was reducing gas supply via Nord Stream 1 to 100mn cubic metres per day, down from a previous plan of 167 mcm per day. Russia said that the technical watchdog Rostekhnadzor had ordered a temporary halt as parts to repair some Siemens equipment were unavailable due to Western sanctions. As a result, only three gas-pumping units remain in operation, it said.

Gazprom’s “technical problems” come after it halted deliveries to some European countries after companies in Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and Poland refused to pay for natural gas in rubles, as demanded by the Russian government.

Gas transit to Europe via Ukraine has also been caught up in the war and deliveries via Sokhranivka in Ukraine that normally account for a third of the total were taken offline in May as the war affected Ukraine’s gas transit business for the first time. The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) said it had taken the station offline as it was now in Russian occupied territory.

Deliveries to Europe via Ukraine slumped to 9 bcm from 14 bcm between January and April this year compared with the same period a year earlier.

Gazprom was transiting the maximum allowed volumes of about 109 mcm per day for two months after the war in Ukraine started in February, and used the reserved capacity in full until the end of March 2022.

Europe has been replenishing its storage tanks at the fastest rate in many years. At the end of winter Brussels ordered that the tanks be 90% full by the start of the heating season, just as the debate on shutting off Russian gas deliveries to Europe completely was gathering steam. That goal was later revised down to 80%, but the pace has been relentless.

The fast pace has been fed by record deliveries of LNG to Europe. The US made 15 bcm available and has diverted some of its deliveries from Asia to ensure that its allies in Europe have enough gas before the winter.

LNG supplies from terminals to Europe’s gas transport system in May hit a record high for the month, reaching 10.8 bcm, which exceeds the previous record of 10.27 bcm of May 2020. LNG reserves in EU states are 13% higher now than in 2021, and 12% higher than a five-year average.

The Grain LNG terminal in the UK, the largest in Europe and eight-largest in the world, posted record gas send-out levels in April, as high demand for gas from Europe pushed utilisation rates up, with LNG tankers arriving from eight new countries since January. The terminal saw its highest ever utilisation rate in April, sending out an average of 431 GWh per day, more than the previous high of 412.2 GWh in April 2021, reports bne IntelliNews’ sister publication Newsbase.com.

Total LNG deliveries to Europe’s gas transport system have reached around 52.45 bcm year-to-date. To compare, Gazprom exported 61 bcm of gas to non-CIS states (including China) in the same period.

And Europe’s LNG capacity will only grow. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a raft of new LNG import projects have been proposed across Europe, while a number of pre-invasion projects that once were considered to have a questionable economic case are now moving forward swiftly.

The flood of gas entering Europe has also taken the pressure off prices which soared 20-fold during the worst of the European gas crisis that started last summer.

However, LNG deliveries to Europe from the US will likely slow following an explosion at the US Freeport terminal in Texas this month. Freeport LNG, one of the largest sources of US LNG exports, is due to remain shut for three weeks, and the downtime could be longer given that the extent of the damage is yet to be determined, Rystad Energy said in a note. The plant had been running at close to its capacity in recent months, helping Europe offset recent disruptions in Russian supply.

The bulk of Freeport LNG’s output had been heading to Europe before the incident – rising from 40% in March to close to 60% in May. The plant has been able to quickly divert extra supply to Europe amid soaring prices and Moscow’s invasion thanks to the fact that most of its capacity is uncontracted.

Who dunnit?

Gazprom was accused of squeezing gas supplies to Europe last year and exacerbating the gas crisis to put pressure on the EU to sign off on new long-term gas contracts the Kremlin needs to develop its vast Yamal gas deposits.

Gazprom made a point of sticking scrupulously to the terms of its supply contracts at a time when shortage and panic had sent gas spot prices through the roof.

Now some observers say that Gazprom is again using gas as a political weapon in Russia’s confrontation with the West with the goal of making sure that Europe does not have enough gas in storage before the heating season starts in October.

However, with Europe’s tanks, and especially those in Germany and Italy, half full by June it seems that Europe is on course to have enough gas ready to use in five months’ time.

Gazprom’s slowdown in delivery – and the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is due for its annual maintenance break in July – also can be seen as a threat of the Kremlin deciding to unilaterally cutting Europe off from gas as part of its clash with the West. This scenario is considered highly unlikely by analysts as although it would cause a gas crisis in Europe, the deliveries would not be restarted and the Kremlin would have to forego significant amounts of revenue it currently badly needs to finance its war.

bne INTELLINEWS, by Ben Aris, June 24, 2022

FTC Requires Divestitures in Petroleum Terminal and Storage Acquisition

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) announced a consent agreement requiring divestitures as a condition of Buckeye Partners, L.P.’s (Buckeye’s) $435 million acquisition of 26 petroleum terminals from Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. (Magellan). Petroleum terminals are a component of the supply chain for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The FTC alleges the acquisition would increase prices for terminaling services and make collusive conduct between the markets’ remaining competitors more likely.

The consent agreement requires Buckeye to divest five terminals no later than 10 days after the companies consummate the deal. Notably, the consent agreement requires that Buckeye seek prior approval from the FTC for 10 years before acquiring any light petroleum products terminal within a 60-mile radius of the divested assets. The Commission unanimously approved issuing the complaint and consent agreement.

Buckeye is a major terminaling service provider for light petroleum products, which include gasoline and other fuels, in South Carolina and Alabama. Magellan similarly operates terminals in the central and southeastern United States. According to the FTC, petroleum terminals are critical to the efficient distribution of light petroleum products because they serve as intermediaries between the pipelines and water vessels that ship the products, such as gasoline, and customers at the pump.

The FTC alleges that absent divestitures of terminals in North Augusta, South Carolina; Spartanburg, South Carolina; and Montgomery, Alabama, the acquisition would significantly increase concentration and reduce competition. The FTC alleges that without the consent agreement:

  • In North Augusta, the acquisition would have reduced the number of competitors in the area from three to two.
  • In Spartanburg, the acquisition would result in Buckeye controlling half of the gasoline terminal capacity and the majority of light petroleum product storage capacity in the city. Buckeye and Magellan are the two largest competitors among seven firms.
  • In Montgomery, the number of firms terminaling light petroleum products would drop from six to five and the number of gasoline terminaling services would drop to four.

Key Takeaways

The FTC’s unanimous decision to bring an enforcement action against this transaction offers two key insights.

First, companies considering mergers or acquisitions should expect heightened scrutiny from the FTC and the Department of Justice, especially if they operate in industries under intense political scrutiny due to high inflation and rising prices. In July 2021, President Biden issued an executive order calling on the FTC to utilize its broad mandate to combat increasing costs and perceived consolidation. A few months later, President Biden sent a letter to FTC Chair Lina Khan directing her attention to oil and gas companies specifically.

The Biden administration has not hesitated in drawing attention to industries it believes warrant more scrutiny from the FTC, and the FTC has been listening. This is the FTC’s second case in three months in the oil and gas sector. On March 25, 2022, the FTC issued a consent order requiring divestitures in a transaction involving two waxy crude oil companies. Gas prices are a highly visible reflection of inflation and rising prices generally, and the industry can expect continued scrutiny from the FTC.

Second, the prior approval provision in the consent decree is noteworthy. The FTC revitalized these provisions in 2021, but the Commission does not unanimously approve of their use. FTC Commissioners Phillips and Wilson issued a statement following the consent agreement in this transaction questioning whether prior approval would benefit competition and consumers.

In particular, they noted that a company bound by such a provision must obtain FTC approval for certain future transactions, but the FTC is not obligated to approve or reject the transaction within a specified period of time, possibly leaving the companies in a uncertain holding pattern. Commissioners Phillips and Wilson’s statement also expressed concerns that these provisions may actually have the opposite of their intended effect and increase prices.

Companies considering transactions should be aware that the FTC is increasingly looking to include these provisions in consent agreements.

By WILSON SONSINI, June 24, 2022

ARA independent oil product stocks rise (Week 25 – 2022)

Independently-held oil product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area rose during the week to 22 June, supported by an increase in gasoil and naphtha stocks, according to the latest data from consultancy Insights Global.

Refined product inventories at ARA rose to five-week highs, but remained close to the level recorded since September 2021, having averaged during the preceding nine months. Slight falls in fuel oil, gasoline and jet fuel inventories were more than offset by an increase in gasoil and naphtha.

Naphtha stocks rose on the week to reach their highest since March 2021, supported by the arrival of cargoes from Algeria, Italy, Russia, Spain and the UAE. Northwest Europe has become a key source of global naphtha demand during June, owing to notably low buying interest from the world’s largest naphtha importing region Asia-Pacific.

Contango in the naphtha forward curve is creating an incentive for market participants to store cargoes in the ARA area. Gasoil stocks also rose on the week supported by the arrival of tankers from India, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US.

Stocks of all other surveyed products fell by low single digits. Gasoline inventories fell, with backwardation continuing to provide little incentive to store cargoes. The production of gasoline in the region is also being inhibited by the cost of high octane blending components.

Tankers containing finished-grade gasoline and components arrived from Bulgaria, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sweden and the UK and departed for Canada, the Mediterranean, the US and west Africa.

Fuel oil stocks fell. Tankers arrived from Estonia, France, Germany, Russia and Sweden, and departed for Singapore and the US. Jet fuel inventories were down, with a single cargo arriving from India and departing for the UK.

Reporter: Thomas Warner

What Do Biden’s New Ethanol Mandates Mean For You?

Expect higher food prices but little relief at the pump with Biden’s latest questionable move to combat inflation… Last Friday, Biden’s EPA Mandated the Most Ethanol Use Ever.

The EPA, after gathering comments since releasing it proposed blending requirements in December, said Friday it will require refiners to blend 20.77 billion gallons of ethanol, biodiesel, and other renewable fuel this year.

Additionally, the oil industry must blend 250 million more gallons of renewable fuel, both this year and next, after a federal court found the Obama administration inappropriately reduced the 2016 blending requirements.

The agency also denied roughly 70 exemptions for small refineries, many of which had been granted under former President Donald Trump.

Corn Growers Cheer

“The Biden EPA is to be commended for restoring sanity to the refinery exemption program,” Monte Shaw, the Iowa Renewable Fuel Association’s executive director, said in a statement. “These exemptions have never been justified and were simply being used to illegally undermine the RFS. We are grateful this long nightmare is over.”

Refiners Complain

But Chet Thompson, CEO of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, said the blending requirement for this year is “contrary to the administration’s claims to be doing everything in their power to provide relief to consumers.”

“Unachievable mandates will needlessly raise fuel production costs and further threaten the viability of U.S. small refineries, both at the expense of consumers,” Thompson said.

EPA Raises Ethanol Mandate for 2022

Also on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported EPA Trims Ethanol Fuel Mandate for 2020-21 But Raises It for 2022

The Biden administration on Friday retroactively reduced the amount of ethanol that must be blended into gasoline for 2020 and 2021 but raised the level for 2022, saying the changes are aimed at helping boost domestic fuel supplies.

The agency can adjust these requirements retroactively, signaling to refiners how much they will have to spend to buy market credits that help them comply with obligations lingering from past years.

Biden’s Ethanol Gas Price Trick

Flashback April 12, 2022: Please consider Biden’s Ethanol Gas Price Trick

In Iowa on Tuesday, Mr. Biden announced an environmental waiver to allow sales of 15% ethanol gasoline blends (E15) this summer. The Clean Air Act prohibits this because higher ethanol blends can increase smog in hot weather. They can also erode older car engines, gas pumps, storage tanks and pipelines.

In 2019 Mr. Trump directed the EPA to let E15 be sold year-round to help Midwest farmers. EPA then rewrote the Clean Air Act, claiming the text was “ambiguous.” The D.C. Circuit of Appeals disagreed and ruled that EPA had exceeded its statutory authority.

Mr. Biden says E15 can save drivers on average 10 cents a gallon, but the waiver will have a negligible impact on gas prices nationwide since so few stations sell it.

It’s also unclear what legal authority EPA intends to invoke. Under the law EPA can only issue emergency waivers to address temporary fuel-supply shortages in discrete regions or states. 

Meantime, Congress’s ethanol mandate is causing many small refiners to shut down and the U.S. to import more foreign fuel. Last week EPA denied 36 hardship exemptions for small refineries, so even more could close.

Synopsis 

  •  30% higher corn prices with other crops rising by 20%, according to the National Academy of Sciences.
  • Growing more corn for ethanol causes increased amounts of water pollutants from U.S. farms
  • Expect more fertilizer use when fertilizer costs are soaring
  • More summer smogE15 erodes older car engines, gas pumps, storage tanks and pipelines.
  • Small refiners will suffer and some will go out of business allowing Elizabeth Warren to moan about the concentration of “Big Oil”. 

To top things off, when Trump tried the same thing, the courts struck it down as illegal. 

OilPrice.com by ZeroHedge, June 17, 2022