U.S. crude oil exports dropped slightly for the week ending March 1 to 4.3 MMb/d from 4.4 MMb/d in the previous week.

This seems to continue the trend of increasing US exports, as can be seen from the 4 week moving average, (blue line in graph below). Though the topline number was about flat, it hid some significant changes.  First, Enterprise’s Houston Terminal set its monthly record in February, loading 24.6 MMbbl, topping January’s record which was 20.2 MMbbl, both of which are substantially more than 2023’s average rate of 13.7 MMbbl.

The second big change was in destination, with Europe and Asia switching places. Exports destined for Asia fell substantially last week to 5.5 MMbbl from 15.9 MMbbl the previous week. This is the lowest exports to Asia have been since early November. On the flip side, volumes to Europe were up by more than 7 MMbbl to 18 MMbbl, a number we’ve only witnessed one other time in the last several years.  With the troubles in the Red Sea choking Suez Canal volumes, this was predicted to happen, with US volumes thought to be replacing Mid East volumes that are headed east, to avoid paying the rather steep penalty of the Cape of Good Hope reroute.

By: RBN Energy / Albert Marc Passy, March 8, 2024