The North Sea crude market just witnessed its largest trading frenzy in at least 16 years, adding to uncertainty over oil prices in the year ahead. 

Eight cargoes — or about 5.6 million barrels of crude — changed hands Monday in a pricing window run by Platts, a unit of S&P Global Commodity Insights. That’s the most since 2008, when Bloomberg started compiling the data. 

Trafigura Group and TotalEnergies SE were the main buyers, with Equinor ASA and Gunvor Group the only sellers. Almost all of the crude traded helps set the price of Dated Brent, the world’s most important pricing benchmark for actual barrels of oil, Dated Brent.

The buying binge occurs at an unusual time — the North Sea crude market is generally quiet in December as traders start to close up their books — and adds to questions about where they think prices will go in the coming months. 

Benchmark futures have hovered, mostly, in a range between $70 and $80 a barrel since August as investors work their way through a fog of uncertainty. It’s not yet clear when the OPEC+ alliance will boost production, or when top-consumer China will be able to revive its economy, which faces the threat of US tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East still loom.

Read: OPEC+ Is Firming Up Deal for Three-Month Delay to Output Hike

The following table shows deals completed during a process called Market on Close that Platts assesses to determine benchmark oil prices. Prices are relative to Dated Brent:

The North Sea oil market is often subject to significant buying and selling, and trading activity can have a far-reaching impact. Four of the five grades traded Monday — WTI Midland, Forties, Brent and Oseberg — help make up the Dated Brent benchmark. 

In June, Gunvor and Trafigura, two of the world’s largest oil traders, bid heavily for various benchmark grades, pushing up physical prices globally. Last month, Petroineos, a joint venture of state-owned PetroChina Co. and UK billionaire Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos Group Plc, snapped up crude at the fastest pace in at least 16 years. 

By Sherry Su, Bloomberg / December 03, 2024.